12/02/2011 Intraday Watering

[KENA]

Xlf held and is now 1303 this is bullish and indicates moves north for a bit.Lets see.

[HappyFriday]

No downgrade news from S&P or Moody today, is it good ? Usually, they downsgrade the whole world on Thursday or Friday.

[Petsamo]

i'm a little confused today. financials and consumer non-staples are way over performing the market. strange.

I dunno about consumer non-staples, but the financials are very oversold, so it's time for them to outperform.

market is basically flat:

JPM - 8%
MS - 7%
GS - 6%
BAC - 3.5%
DB- 3%
etc. etc.

not to be argumentative, but i'm not sure where you're getting the idea that financials are "very oversold". financials are actually pretty much flat or maybe even overbought on the shorter time frame. if you were saying this say, last friday, i would agree. but i have to disagree very much here.

so i'm curious as to what this is saying about the broader market direction.

In my spreadsheet, I have this chart:



The formula is IWM price divided by JPM price times 55.
High numbers mean JPM is weak relative to IWM.
I don't have the XLF / JPM chart, but I have the numbers, and they look bad too.
As you can see from the above chart, JPM is extremely oversold relative to IWM. Eventually, JPM & XLF have to recover from oversold conditions. Unfortunately, nothing is preventing any trend from reversing.

[chickencoop]

No downgrade news from S&P or Moody today, is it good ? Usually, they downsgrade the whole world on Thursday or Friday.

Maybe, we should downgrade S&P

[keesa]

Xlf held and is now 1303 this is bullish and indicates moves north for a bit.Lets see.

natural numbers are always magnets to XLF. not necessarily bullish at the moment.

[heavenskrow]

ES holds support

[chickencoop]

i'm a little confused today. financials and consumer non-staples are way over performing the market. strange.

I dunno about consumer non-staples, but the financials are very oversold, so it's time for them to outperform.

market is basically flat:

JPM - 8%
MS - 7%
GS - 6%
BAC - 3.5%
DB- 3%
etc. etc.

not to be argumentative, but i'm not sure where you're getting the idea that financials are "very oversold". financials are actually pretty much flat or maybe even overbought on the shorter time frame. if you were saying this say, last friday, i would agree. but i have to disagree very much here.

so i'm curious as to what this is saying about the broader market direction.

In my spreadsheet, I have this chart:



The formula is IWM price divided by JPM price times 55.
High numbers mean JPM is weak relative to IWM.
I don't have the XLF / JPM chart, but I have the numbers, and they look bad too.
As you can see from the above chart, JPM is extremely oversold relative to IWM. Eventually, JPM & XLF have to recover from oversold conditions. Unfortunately, nothing is preventing any trend from reversing.

[BullBear52x]

bear flag, measure move will sit below yellow zone, not good.

[Al_Dente]

UPDATED 1min internals
Sorry, still working on new 1 min internals…here is corrected chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250028427

ADDED $TNX, reliable bond indicator
ADDED UUP (the invert of udn)
MOVED VIX to my 5min charts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGm1uwRWGMM

[fehro]

interesting bar on TZA

[HappyFriday]

No downgrade news from S&P or Moody today, is it good ? Usually, they downsgrade the whole world on Thursday or Friday.

Maybe, we should downgrade S&P

Good idea ! But how ?
Put S&P instead ?

[MrMiyagi]

Yep, here it is on the RBC platform too.

[Petsamo]

i'm a little confused today. financials and consumer non-staples are way over performing the market. strange.

I dunno about consumer non-staples, but the financials are very oversold, so it's time for them to outperform.

market is basically flat:

JPM - 8%
MS - 7%
GS - 6%
BAC - 3.5%
DB- 3%
etc. etc.

not to be argumentative, but i'm not sure where you're getting the idea that financials are "very oversold". financials are actually pretty much flat or maybe even overbought on the shorter time frame. if you were saying this say, last friday, i would agree. but i have to disagree very much here.

so i'm curious as to what this is saying about the broader market direction.

In my spreadsheet, I have this chart:



The formula is IWM price divided by JPM price times 55.
High numbers mean JPM is weak relative to IWM.
I don't have the XLF / JPM chart, but I have the numbers, and they look bad too.
As you can see from the above chart, JPM is extremely oversold relative to IWM. Eventually, JPM & XLF have to recover from oversold conditions. Unfortunately, nothing is preventing any trend from reversing.

Cool, thanks!

[Me XMan]

BB52X. Holding long or short?

bear flag, measure move will sit below yellow zone, not good.

[uempel]

Chickencoop and Quatzi:

Most TA ideas are based on Newtons 3rd mechanical law, tools are just assistance to understand Newton's ideas of price movement. These applications were finetuned 100 years ago and they worked. Don't know who was first, but I guess it was way back when the stockmarket opened up in NY...

I don't want to explain Newton's law, but the base is that every action is followed by a reaction. Newton calculated the precise formula, but in principle action/reaction is one to one. Very easy to notice in channels, but it's the same with ellipses. The channel has the centerline as pivot, ellipse has the centerpoint - so everything is always moving around a center point. And the move from one centerpoint to the next means that the equilibrium of the moves are also moved - a new channel or a new ellipse is formed, intrestingly nearly always in the same size as the privious one.

Enough for today, you guys can play around with channels/ellipses and you'll find out for yourself. And don't forget to check out Al_Dente's 1 min chart. Channels/ellipses tell you where support/resistance is, Al's chart gives you an indication of direction

[SB73]

Looks like a bear flag to me. I think we test 125 today, but end around these levels. Cobra are you pretty much scalping here or are you building positions one way or the other. By the way, got my membership...thanks for your efforts. In the several months that I have followed you, this is the only that I can remember where from my perspective your trades weren't the best. I say this out of my respect and not to criticize. Would you say the set ups were wrong or is my perception wrong? It was not an easy week on my side...basically flat which feels horrible considering the market move.

[tdo722]

I'm out of my short as well. Could have made more but at least I see my mistake. Profit is Profit!

Carlos, when I took my emphasis off my P/L and put it on discipline...to trade my plan, the P/L took care of itself.

Things I know for sure:
1) never regret taking a profit or say, "I should have..."
2) Never, ever, ever let a winning trade turn into a loser
3) be humble...it is just not about you. This is a biggie...ego and the need to be right has cost me a lot of coin.
4) try for singles and not home runs. It is a lot easier to get into the Hall of Fame by hitting singles.
5) when you wife asks you how you are doing, don't tell her..this is all about ego! Tell her how good your discipline is.
6) when the market God's are good to you, share some of it with those who are less fortunate. Get 10 $20 bills and go give them to the homeless...to pay homage to the market God's for the good fortune they bestowed upon you.
7) keep it humble...real humble...like Cobra teaches us so well.

I hope this helps! These lessons resulted in a paradigm shift in my trading were I went from survival mode to making money.

Excellent advice. Unfortunately I still don't have a system in place and still rely on emails, newsletters, advices from other. Hopefully, I'll have my own system soon. Now hit/miss 60/40.

TDO, I'm just beginning to move out of that stage and it's tough. But there is some clarity in testing your own system, for one thing, you reduce the info overload.

Great, what is the setup of your system? Still using MA, Sto?

[dcurban1]

No downgrade news from S&P or Moody today, is it good ? Usually, they downsgrade the whole world on Thursday or Friday.

Just wait until the market has closed.

[heavenskrow]

TLT.....

[BullBear52x]

BB52X. Holding long or short?

bear flag, measure move will sit below yellow zone, not good.

shorts, but most likely will be in cash this weekend.