BullTart wrote:Looks like fear is beginning to creep back in... fear that Santa might pull a "no-show" due to massive overhang.
The VIX Cracken is slowly waking up when it should be in hibernation at this time of the year. VIX usually is dead in December.
This is very dangerous, as nothing likes to be woken from deep sleep.
It's like waking up a bear during hibernation. It will be very, very angry.
If fear comes back at what is usually a very "safe" part of the year, many traders will be caught off-guard and there will be a mad scramble to buy protection.
And that is when the VIX Cracken will emerge from its cave and devour all the poor, complacent souls.
Let's hope that doesn't happen as it will be a true bloodbath.
If this is the end of wave 2 then it should have stopped at 1221 but it could retrace 50% to 1213. I'm bullish unless 1187 gets broken. The reason for that and the poor tvix reaction is because yesterday the VIX closed below the 200 dma for the first time since july EVEN with this week's selling AND it stayed inside the Bollinger band. When it gets pushed outside the band it usually pops.
So, barring some catastrophic financial event I'm with Cobra on the Santa Rally. I got into TNA too early yesterday but now it's holding 39-40, the 23.6% retracement. If that can't hold then lookout below. I usually take on too much risk by front running the market but I got burned twice this week so I'm waiting for confirmation before going long. All cash now except for a small calls position.