12/14/2011 Intraday Watering

BullTart · Post by **BullTart** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:19 am

cougar wrote:
BullTart wrote:Looks like fear is beginning to creep back in... fear that Santa might pull a "no-show" due to massive overhang.

The VIX Cracken is slowly waking up when it should be in hibernation at this time of the year. VIX usually is dead in December.

This is very dangerous, as nothing likes to be woken from deep sleep.

It's like waking up a bear during hibernation. It will be very, very angry.

If fear comes back at what is usually a very "safe" part of the year, many traders will be caught off-guard and there will be a mad scramble to buy protection.

And that is when the VIX Cracken will emerge from its cave and devour all the poor, complacent souls.

Let's hope that doesn't happen as it will be a true bloodbath.
VIX C/P vol. today >10 !!!
Most active today: VIX Jan18 C 37.5 !!!

Wow, the most active is VIX Jan18 C @ 37.5??? That's a full 10 point higher than it is now. Looks like the scramble might be slowly starting then...

michelangelo · Post by **michelangelo** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:22 am

Damn, shouldn't have covered my TZA from yesterday.

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:22 am

bounce to 1225? ...tagged channel

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:22 am

nothing to say, it's clearly steady down, before this trend line broken and the low get revisited, don't long. (I mean intraday of course. all I'm saying are intraday unless specified)

michelangelo · Post by **michelangelo** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:24 am

The target on the symmetrical triangle on the Russell is 701.

TWJ · Post by **TWJ** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:24 am

SPX shows three-push... so I would expect some correction here

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:25 am

stucap wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:7 day internals all bear
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250649703
bear trend day or not?

Stu: our “unofficial” number for trend day is >2000
Nydec is strong bear at >2200, but it must confirm lows (it did) and it must stay >2000
As you know things can change quickly, especially if wus bears start covering
1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

Petsamo · Post by **Petsamo** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:25 am

michelangelo wrote:Damn, shouldn't have covered my TZA from yesterday.

It was the responsible thing to do. We're oversold.

jarbo456 · Post by **jarbo456** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:26 am

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, it's clearly steady down, before this trend line broken and the low get revisited, don't long. (I mean intraday of course. all I'm saying are intraday unless specified)

i was just going to comment that this sell-off since about 2pm yesterday has been really steady and uniform. this LOOKS like mutual fund repositioning...but what the hell do i know.

moneybreath · Post by **moneybreath** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:26 am

Think about this for a moment ... if the VIX is moving up and there is truly an increase in fear levels, then for the Down Volume to confirm it, the DVOL would have to also move up. Thus, increasing fear levels and an increase in the Down Volume would confirm each other.

Likewise, if the VIX is moving down, there should be an increase in optimism, and then you would expect the Down Volume to decrease in order to confirm it.

But what if the VIX went down slightly, with the Down Volume going up slightly?

Like yesterday, when the VIX went down slightly, with the DVOL going up slightly. The differential between the VIX and the DVOL wasn't a large amount, but it did occur for two days in a row, so they were not in concert with each other.

Those are opposite, non-confirming moves. The lower VIX movement during the past two days is suggesting an an expectation of lower volatility over the next 30 days. A lower VIX correlates with a higher market. However, the VIX moved down meagerly, so the conviction for lower volatility in the next 30 days wasn't as strong as one would like to see it. And with the Down Volume increasing slightly at the same time, it could be pointing to "unsureness" in the market.

So, the two may be suggesting that the Bulls and Bears are confused right now and need more time to sort it all out. Even with the recent stress coming from the EU turmoil, the market has remained pretty resilient.

jarbo456 · Post by **jarbo456** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:27 am

TWJ wrote:SPX shows three-push... so I would expect some correction here

EUR/USD looks like it wants to break lower...descending triangle on the shorter time frame.

michelangelo · Post by **michelangelo** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:27 am

Petsamo wrote:
michelangelo wrote:Damn, shouldn't have covered my TZA from yesterday.
It was the responsible thing to do. We're oversold.

I think I was front running. I was expecting a bounce back to the bottom of the triangle. I should have stayed with the trend down. Live and learn.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:29 am

cougar wrote:The GLD breakdown will be confirmed of it closes the week under MAE(34)

Cougar thanks for gold, she’s acting like the “Madwoman of Chaillot” perhaps following the inverted dollar down (while TIPS are still holding bull).
She just broke 200ma support on the dailies, next support 154.19 (9/26)…..mmmmm.
PS: did u notice my purple crayon trendline on the weekly coincides with a fib fan line at something-or-other-percentage?
I wonder if I’m drawing the fib fan properly? I don’t think so.
I have little bitty GLD in long term acct that I may have to sell soon, and that will really pist me off.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p= ... =250841168

PS: your target silver week(s) ago WAS SPOT ON dude, thanks

yo coug, cheerleaders, oy! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKg8G9sM ... re=related

Petsamo · Post by **Petsamo** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:31 am

michelangelo wrote:
Petsamo wrote:
michelangelo wrote:Damn, shouldn't have covered my TZA from yesterday.
It was the responsible thing to do. We're oversold.
I think I was front running. I was expecting a bounce back to the bottom of the triangle. I should have stayed with the trend down. Live and learn.

We little people can't front run. The big boys control this market, and they don't listen to us little people.

jarbo456 · Post by **jarbo456** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:33 am

damn. amazon getting hammered. i though 5-6% over a couple of days would be enough...bough a few calls yesterday at close. much lower, and this thing might bust below 160.

Me XMan · Post by **Me XMan** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:36 am

Still looking for SPX 1205 today

jarbo456 · Post by **jarbo456** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:36 am

banks are actually holding up pretty well today. need them to join the party down.

Mongoose · Post by **Mongoose** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:43 am

a very good bloomberg interview Achuthan from ECRI --

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcEYCuvHr0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vut98_ATcU

Good luck trading.

Me XMan · Post by **Me XMan** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:44 am

Zerohedge is looking for missing person.

Buckethead · Post by **Buckethead** » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:44 am

We saw this same thing during week of Thanksgiving too.
The herd loaded up long for a Santa Rally. We will have a rally once the herd dumps.
Maybe Thurs/Fri.
I would not look for a buy today. Today is first day VIX up, means the sheeple finally getting scared it is DAY 1.

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12/14/2011 Intraday Watering

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VIX / DVOL info

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