12/14/2011 Intraday Watering

[BullBear52x]

Anyone think UNG is a buy ? It has been a vertical non-stop drop for a couple of years now.

I owned UNG in my long term account, the biggest loser.

I don't recommend UNG long-term. I made my profit and exited.

I should, I revisit my long term account once a month to rearrange stuff.

[proteus46]

Bought TNA as a day-trade

[ClarkW]

Ok – we have the opex hourly buy signal confirmed, BUT I AM NOT TAKING it yet! That might be a mistake, BUT this year opex week has tended to trend a bit more (the last Wed low of opex week was in March and that was a pretty special low) AND more importantly post FOMC when we have headed down after the FOMC, the bottoms have been on the Thursday of FOMC week (see Sept and June of 2011 and Dec and Sep of 2010) – NOTE all of those are also quad witching months, though the FOMC is both during or after opex week), so I am going to wait on the buy signal till near tomorrow’s open.

I am also cautious because in September, if you had taken the signal on the Wed after FOMC, you got crushed! but we did bottom on the Thursday….

As for Santa rallies, they do occur…

So people are right to be expecting a Santa rally – it is just the timing of it, as in the past few years Dec opex has not produced any nasty downside moves, but they forget that in 2008 – the Monday after was the buy day for a big bounce in to the New Year…. Also, in 2005 and 2006 – the day to buy was the Tuesday after opex and in 2004, it was the Friday of opex week…. Opex week low in 2010 was on the Thursday and in 2009 it was the Friday.

Ever interesting,

-D

p.s. Also, of note – if you trade using the midcaps or the small caps, I would significantly favour the midcaps right now as they are underperforming the small caps by close to 2% in the last week

Thank you as always. good stuff.

I second that! Thanks!

[jarbo456]

Bought TNA as a day-trade

guess that means you think the LOD was put in already?

[uempel]

Al, no confirmation yet. I don't like the set-up that much, no panic, ratio buys/sells ES looks too bullish for a short term bottom. How about a bear-trap with a dip down to 1204ish...

[fehro]

little over shoot?.. hammer candle? for a bounce?

[ClarkW]

SPY holding the 50% Fib Retracement level of $121.79 from Nov 25th low to Dec 7th high...for now. 38.2% level was support on the 12th before breaking down yesterday.

[stucap]

little over shoot?.. hammer candle? for a bounce?

bulls are super weak. need a little red bull to give us a healthy bounce to short.

[Petsamo]

Bought TNA as a day-trade

I bought XME @ 48.18. Big question is when/if to sell.

[BullBear52x]

I got nothing flashing at me yet, you guys can front run me, I will sit tight for now.

[dcurban1]

Anyone else picking up gold/silver around here?

Me. This is a buying opportunity.

[uempel]

Close up:

[uempel]

Al, your chart does not look bullish, no way...

[jarbo456]

Anyone else picking up gold/silver around here?

Me. This is a buying opportunity.

i sold some gold puts an hour ago. not ready to go long it straight up quite yet.

[Me XMan]

You need to see the white of bull's eyes

I got nothing flashing at me yet, you guys can front run me, I will sit tight for now.

[jarbo456]

Al, your chart does not look bullish, no way...

i'm worried about this 12pm event that you have on your charts. i wish i had lightened up before-hand.

[brokebybernacke2]

govt needed to sell lots of tbills this week, markets down surprise? what time does that tbill store close?

[Me XMan]

FLUSH IT DOWN!

[proteus46]

Bought TNA as a day-trade

guess that means you think the LOD was put in already?

Right now may not be the low of the day, but I think there may be some buying in the next 1 to 2 hours. Later today we may see lower levels.

[uempel]

Al, your chart does not look bullish, no way...

i'm worried about this 12pm event that you have on your charts. i wish i had lightened up before-hand.

I'm not sure how precise my drawing was. I rechecked and now I've got a signal at about 12.20 pm, either up or down. Al's chart is quite reliable as an indicator...