Weekend Watering

[Mr. BachNut]

Whenever the McClellan Oscillator turns up from -50, it usually makes it back all the way to the 0 line or higher. As it hasn't made it there as of Friday, it favors some upside or at least not much downside over the next few days. Obviously, no guarantees...

I am long at the moment with my finger on the eject button (not comfortable at all with the position). My mechanical model signaled sell last week, but I held off because opex was biasing the signal. If we get a positive day or two and my mechanical model is still signaling sell at MO of 0+, I'll be getting hedged and possibly short.

[cougar]

Have some fun for the Sunday brunch with the new love triangle of biotech: ISTA, VRX, and AGN.

AGN was considered for quite a while as the potential logical acquirer of the much-beaten ISTA.

But …here comes Valeant (VRX) the super-expert of bottom-fishing, the one company that managed to beat TEVA with the help of a “tender offer + withdrawal, in a one night stand”…Sounds good? Well, this is what VRX did:
“In a 67% premium to Thursday’s close, Valeant Pharmaceuticals is proposing $314 million or $6.50 per share in cash for ISTA Pharmaceuticals.” - news.

Which brings up the question: Will AGN just let it happen, without overbidding?
===========

What makes the story REALLY interesting is that, technically, all three are doing great…
Guess what a professional would do in a situation like that!
CHARTS:

[Al_Dente]

Whenever the McClellan Oscillator turns up from -50, it usually makes it back all the way to the 0 line or higher. As it hasn't made it there as of Friday, it favors some upside or at least not much downside over the next few days. Obviously, no guarantees...
I am long at the moment with my finger on the eject button (not comfortable at all with the position). My mechanical model signaled sell last week, but I held off because opex was biasing the signal. If we get a positive day or two and my mechanical model is still signaling sell at MO of 0+, I'll be getting hedged and possibly short.

Hi Mr. Bachnut: What is the 5% index and the 10% index? Thanks very much for posting.
Also, thanks to all others for great charts this weekend......

[cougar]

Lately, TA of individual stocks was almost impossible, since they seemed to be moved by herd-driven amorphous waves. Or, were they? Well, perhaps not all of them…

I chose here, also as brunch entertainment, 3 stocks which incite some optimism, but are at 3 distinct signaling stages:

1. VRTX: confirmed BUY … the one that really worked.

2. CRR: technical reversal…waiting for confirmation.

3. REGN: ready for a buy signal…but still waiting for an “impulsive move”. This one is particularly interesting as a representative of some other stocks with strong fundamentals, but badly beaten. Many of such stocks also accept clear EW patterns - which for a nonbeliever like me worked surprisingly well. And since they worked, let us listen to their prediction: if this was a “truncated w5” (magenta) and now we go up, the following larger Wave B (red) should be worth playing, for a while.
Note that on this REGN chart, the FAN has its origin at the initiation of “3 of 3 of 3”…that the “Wavy-Gravy people” are madly in love with.

=================

Again: if you like any of them, do your DD...Please!

[ryshab]

I think the market is in a 14 week cycle with about 9 weeks of upside and 5 weeks of downside. Again as we move from a bullish market to now a more bearish looking market, I expect the bull cycle of 9 weeks to shorten and the bear cycle of 5 weeks to go up. This was particularly evident in the July to October cycle.

What do you guys think?

[cougar]

Very nice work Ryshab!
You might be right!

I have something for you: a DOW monthly chart starting with 1988.
One can notice on it:
- the effect of the crossovers of the upper EMA ribbon lines (yellow) on price movements.
- the fact that the 2nd inflection point happened at the level of a previous “monthly resistance” line, which recently became “monthly support”.
- that a Hurst Cycle and a Gann Vibration interact and, when close, give a summation effect.

One might notice that Gann Vibrations punctuated significant events, but of a nature not predictable by some simple rule…They were either troughs (just like Hurst cycle lows) or strong changes in acceleration, which could be even inflection events.

Altogether, I read this chart as quite optimistic for the near future…definitely suggesting better times ahead… than my modest understanding of the World economy would consider...
======

And now I am going to occupy the “Mile High” stadium together with some Bostonian friends, which will probably be a very dangerous endeavor!

[TWT]

I am working with 2 potential bullish EW patterns : Triangle or deeper retracemnt with a DZZ

But we cannot rule out either that the corrective pattern in play since this summer may morph into a larger DZZ which should establish the bottom of the wave (B)

Therefore even though it may seem that this morning I woke up with plenty of doubts, the fact of the matter is that we have to remain open minded since corrective patterns can morph easily aborting patterns that initially are thought to be the right ones. Hence since we have to live with it my approach remain focused in the shorter time frames.

[TWT]

For the shorter time frame I am "working" with a DZZ
If this count is correct and judging from Friday´s price action and VIX bullish falling wedge I expect more down side until the impulsive wave (C) has a fiver in place.

[dr659]

Go Browns!!!!!

[99er]

cougar

The line opened as low as -4.5 in favor of the Patriots. But it has sense skyrocketed all the way up to -7.5 at many books.

Translation: Tebowmania is a myth! Bettors are lining up to bet against him.

70% of all bets are on New England, and while there doesn't appear to be heavy wise guy action on this game, the fact that the line has moved so dramatically suggests that the sharps like New England too.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/broncos- ... z1gvr7jd6W

[99er]

Sunday Evening Updates

EURUSD-ES

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eu-es_18.html

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eu-es_6216.html

[rhight]

Thanks everyone for the great charts. I haven't been on here on a regular basis lately. I find that I trade better when I keep my own counsel, and not get confused by what others are saying. I've had 6 winners in a row over the past month, so it seems to be working. I went flat into the weekend, even though I'm somewhat bearishly biased in the intermediate term.

A few thoughts. According to the Daily SPX ADX the market is showing no trend.The trend line from the 3/2009 low is drawn as shown because it makes 4 points a contact, and so may have some authority. A line drawn through the 10/2011 low (1074) would have only two points, and so is only a potential trend line until a third contact and reaction is made. As drawn, you can easily see a symmetrical triangle forming that is consistent with what the ADX is indicating. The current 2 week down trend has been corrective in nature, with overlapping waves and low volume, no sell-off yet. This week the 20 DMA made a bear cross of the 50 DMA, at the same time that price fell through both of them, and closed that way for the week. This appears weak, and suggests further downside, either to the down trend from the October low (~1195) or to the longer term trend line (near 1180). That’s as far as I can predict. Of course, a bounce could occur at any time, but the down trend from the July high now has 4 points of contact and is co-located with the declining 200 DMA and horizontal resistance (represented by the level that corresponds to the yearly 2011 open.) A couple weeks ago, I joked that price closed above the 200DMA for two days in October, and then 1 day in November, and that if the pattern was consistent that it would close 0 days above on the next try. Well, it happened, somewhat to my surprise. And so, this looks like formidable resistance to overcome in the near term. Good luck out there, and happy holidays!

[Me XMan]

Dear Santa and Buddah. Have market really tank bad Monday morning.
Santa. You can delay your visit until Wednesday.

Sunday Evening Updates

EURUSD-ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eu-es_18.html

[Auole]

Here note: gold and silver lost their correlation with $SPX this month. What does that mean please??
Yo: gold-nuts on board: please point out what Al has missed and show your stuff please.

Okay Al, you got me going. Appreciate the spur. Research today took me to EUR/USD to Gold cuz that ole dollar affects just what happens in commodities. Though not perfectly, gold still is mostly symbiotic with our S&P Index. It seems rather
attitudinal. The Euro (EUR:USD) went down 3.12%, /DX down 3.5%, SPY down 4.2% and gold down 9% per just what's visible on these charts. The one deviation that pist off ole Auolé here were the last few red candles on SPY's Friday late morning sell off and gold just turned around and went up since I was still holding DXX.
Since I have no spies in the Big bankster gang it is my best guess that gold's tumble last week had a lot to do with the Deflation agenda. Per whomever I read, it has nothin to do with Supply and Demand. "The key to this entire commodities
correction continues to be the fortunes of the US dollar. The world is not consuming less oil, nor producing more gold, than it was back in April near that all-time CCI high. Global commodities demand growth continues to outpace supply growth. The only material thing that changed was the value of the US dollar in the global marketplace."
Reading at the Forex pointed out that (not visible on this chart of EuroFX futures - /GE) price is sitting just barely above a head and shoulder neckline 129; that price broke the 1.3146 support level (black line on /GE chart) and price just dipped its toe under the 61.8% Fib correction 1.305. If it goes below 1.290 then that pattern target is 1.1877, last low.
EMA's - green - 10 blue - 50 **** 99er - cross country skiing surprises? LIKED the EUR/USD chart. First few overnighter candles down and red in EUR/USD , gold, silver, US$ up a sliver.
Something interesting must be popping out of this bunch of long narrow BB birth canals tonight/tomorrow.
WONDERFUL charts and effort and insight everyone posting here.

The attachment USDollrEurGoldSilvrGOXstudy.png is no longer available

The attachment USDollrEurGoldSilvrGOXstudy.png is no longer available

[Mr. BachNut]

Whenever the McClellan Oscillator turns up from -50, it usually makes it back all the way to the 0 line or higher. As it hasn't made it there as of Friday, it favors some upside or at least not much downside over the next few days. Obviously, no guarantees...
I am long at the moment with my finger on the eject button (not comfortable at all with the position). My mechanical model signaled sell last week, but I held off because opex was biasing the signal. If we get a positive day or two and my mechanical model is still signaling sell at MO of 0+, I'll be getting hedged and possibly short.

Hi Mr. Bachnut: What is the 5% index and the 10% index? Thanks very much for posting.
Also, thanks to all others for great charts this weekend......

The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 5% and 10% Indexes. The 5% and 10% indexes are, respectively, the 19-EMA and 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.

[Auole]

Kitco gold index chart. Interesting. It may not serve much in 'direction' but at least it maps out gold price relative to weakening or strengthening dollar. Here's how it's read:
http://66.38.218.33/kitco-gold-index.htmlroportion. About the Kitco Gold Index: What is it and why is it relevant?
The Kitco Gold Index has one purpose, that is to determine whether the value of gold is actual, a reflection of changes in the US Dollar value, or a combination of both.
The U.S. Dollar Index® represents the value of the US Dollar in terms of a basket of six major foreign currencies: Euro (57.6%), Japanese Yen (13.6%), UK Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). It is an exchange traded (FINEX) index and has become a standard used worldwide.
The Kitco Gold Index is the price of gold measured not in terms of US Dollars, but rather in terms of the same weighted basket of currencies that determine the US Dollar Index®.
Since the Kitco Gold Index has no US Dollar component it needs to be compared to the actual US Dollar price to give it some perspective. In all of the historical and live charts that we are displaying here we’re showing both trend lines for the purposes of making this comparison. Here are a few possible situations that you may see and what the meaning
could be: The Kitco Gold Index is up and the USD price of gold is up even more:
This would definitely mean that gold has increased in value. It also means that the USD has weakened and so the degree of the gold value increase will be exaggerated when examined strictly in terms of the US Dollar.
The Kitco Gold Index is down and the USD price of gold is down even more: This would definitely mean that gold value has declined in value. But not by as much as it may appear in USD terms.
The Kitco Gold Index is up and the USD price of gold is down: This would indicate that the USD has strengthened
relative to the other major currencies, but that gold has gained in value.
The Kitco Gold Index is down and the USD price of gold is up: This would indicate that the USD has weakened relative to the other major currencies, and that gold is really not up as it may appear.