12/23/2011 Intraday Watering

[chocobee]

There is no seller ...

[toplight]

Yes we CAN!

[tdo722]

TVIX @ new highs of the day... meanwhile, so is the SPY.

Things that make you go hmmm....

Here is my twisted logic... At this point a lot of people have noticed the VIX pop after Santa rally thing.. So there is a difference this time.. in that people are buying volatility because they are expecting a repeat. That's always the time the signal fails when everyone becomes aware of it, it always stops working. The fact that vix is rising is what should make you go HMMMM.. as in 2007-08 it was falling and making new lows, not so this time. My take is that the herd thinks it's being smart, that's usually when the herd gets smacked down.

Vice versa, you also forgot the herd also think there's a santa rally, all over the news, tv, magazines. So shouldn't the herd get it wrong?

[silicon_beaver]

126.3, overshoot the target (126.2 per Cobra).
are there 3rd push-up?

[99er]

Dumb at TA?

http://www.meetup.com/Antioch-Skeptics- ... rs/633608/

I'm skeptical.

[BullTart]

TVIX @ new highs of the day... meanwhile, so is the SPY.

Things that make you go hmmm....

Here is my twisted logic... At this point a lot of people have noticed the VIX pop after Santa rally thing.. So there is a difference this time.. in that people are buying volatility because they are expecting a repeat. That's always the time the signal fails when everyone becomes aware of it, it always stops working. The fact that vix is rising is what should make you go HMMMM.. as in 2007-08 it was falling and making new lows, not so this time. My take is that the herd thinks it's being smart, that's usually when the herd gets smacked down.

That could be true, although the same logic could be applied to the Santa Rally concept. Statistically, it has a high rate of occurrence, even though people know about it year after year after year.

But your twisted logic cannot be disproved.

Personally, I'd be wary given that the VIX has been hugging the bottom BB band for like the past two weeks. Reversion to mean can be painful.

[Cobra]

nice, ascending triangle target reached.

[tdo722]

4 more spx point before I unload 100% shorts. 1267.

This time I'm buying unleveraged ETF like SH. No way, I'm buying 2x,3x because I could be totally wrong on Tuesday and has to hold for some time.

[heavenskrow]

vxx breaks support, es breaks resistance.

[Tabby]

I am betting that financial can not print their way out this time. unhedge, I will add more later not today but I can smell it.

You are right BB. There are too many buyers in the market today with no volume. $SPX moving 1 point per hour up. By 4 PM, we hit 1266. Sat, Sun, and Mon with no activities and then Tuesday we hit 1300 with some good news from Banks in Planet Neptune.

[BullBear52x]

I am betting that financial can not print their way out this time. unhedge, I will add more later not today but I can smell it.

Baron von Smelly
Let me explain something important to you: TA is V*I*S*U*A*L dude. Smell is olfactory. It’s quite possible that what you are smelling are just your own farts.
You are holding back some other great signals from us…. but even old Al can “smell” a top here…
Give dude…. give us the goods… give us more….we can handle it.
You know what Mishka has to say about that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCKhTCVn ... re=related

Ooooops another neg d on rsi 1 min

OK here price pays

[Al_Dente]

5 min
Nyadv just confirmed that there is a santa claus (but she's still barely just <2000)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

THANKS BULLTART, good one .....“”””””””””Reversion to mean can be painful”””””””””

[heavenskrow]

ES couldnt confirm breakout.

[tdo722]

I am betting that financial can not print their way out this time. unhedge, I will add more later not today but I can smell it.

Baron von Smelly
Let me explain something important to you: TA is V*I*S*U*A*L dude. Smell is olfactory. It’s quite possible that what you are smelling are just your own farts.
You are holding back some other great signals from us…. but even old Al can “smell” a top here…
Give dude…. give us the goods… give us more….we can handle it.
You know what Mishka has to say about that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCKhTCVn ... re=related

Ooooops another neg d on rsi 1 min

OK here price pays

If this plays out, then A=C=1311 or 161.8% at 1330.

A=C=1311 is also the resistance of the down trendline from may to july. Coincidental? I think not.

[Al_Dente]

I am betting that financial can not print their way out this time. unhedge, I will add more later not today but I can smell it.

Baron von Smelly
Let me explain something important to you: TA is V*I*S*U*A*L dude. Smell is olfactory....

OK here price pays

Okay then, sell double top here or over there at 11/8
She’s not strong enough internally to ram through double top today….at least not yet….UNLESS we see more wus bears covering….. no RUSH to cover here…..bears quite comfortable and aren’t getting too squeezed??….
PS: u always have such great charts, they "smell" all nice and clean

[waverider]

only the tail of that bar on /es confirmed, lol but every pullback has been sideways, not even down. Not seeing bears yet

[BullTart]

In the past 5 years, the VIX RSI has been this low or lower only 3 other times.

One of them, back in end of 2008/beginning of 2009 had a very similar setup, seasonally speaking (i.e. end of year December VIX crush).

Look what happened.

The chances of VIX putting at least a short term bottom sooner than later is higher than it dropping to the teens.

Equities will have a hard time rallying in that kind of an environment, so upside for equities seem limited given risk/reward setup. Doesn't mean it couldn't go higher, but it comes with some risk premiums to do so.

[tdo722]

Anyone here has a statistics on futures? I'd like to know that gap down at 1147 on /es. I know it's gonna be fill sooner or later but I want to know statistically, /es how long do gap stays open? 1 month, 2 months, 1 year?

[Al_Dente]

60 min internals
BARON: just for fun this one, note DBV gold area behind spy, sheesh, u da man
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =251687166

Turn yr volume down for this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqZOYgUolC4

[BullBear52x]

I am betting that financial can not print their way out this time. unhedge, I will add more later not today but I can smell it.

Baron von Smelly
Let me explain something important to you: TA is V*I*S*U*A*L dude. Smell is olfactory. It’s quite possible that what you are smelling are just your own farts.
You are holding back some other great signals from us…. but even old Al can “smell” a top here…
Give dude…. give us the goods… give us more….we can handle it.
You know what Mishka has to say about that? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCKhTCVn ... re=related

Ooooops another neg d on rsi 1 min

OK here price pays

If this plays out, then A=C=1311 or 161.8% at 1330.

A=C=1311 is also the resistance of the down trendline from may to july. Coincidental? I think not.

You can see this as C&H also, so yes, up there some where, if breaks 127 bears will have a tough day ahead.