12/29/2011 Intraday Watering

[taggard]

OR breakout target. Failed 7 out 10 recently.

Cobra: is bear flag still valid?

no

Your evil of most evilest plan working.cept no down here comes 1265

yeah, nowadays usually only half of my plan works. This market is difficult to trade.

this too shall pass--as techninal guys we like the idea that we should more or less ignore outside situations and focus on the charts. but it's critical to remember this only works 85 of the time maybe a bit more. and this assumes we as traders are flawless (i just screwed up a trade entering the wrong options amazingly--it worked out profitable but whew one second inattention--and that edge is gone)

outside events do sometimes enter into the picture--here we have holiday trading and every gov and fund guy on the planet hoping for an up year--even if only by a small %. other events i can remember were fall of bushes election when puts were insanely high as we went up on small(ish) volume.

the real trick is to find some way to quickly turn around mentally in these situations. if a typical pattern fails that tells us as much as if it works--often more--if we can have that mental flexibility. it's hard to work in a projective time frame (days) and trade 5 min at the same time because you have to be able to consider two (often opposing views).

New traders on this site may want to very carefully consider this--it's actually EASIER to trade a 5 min chart (at the start of your learning curve) and ignore the larger picture. or trade the larger picture and ignore the 5 min chart. Doing both certainly can be done--but requires a very fluid view point which we are often trying to pick up as beginners.

when you are starting out often being too flexible means you get whipsawed on many levels--later you can remain personally centered--in the middle of crazy moves more easily.

So if you are just starting out-- consider this or try it 1 way for say 60 trading days and then another for 60 trading days. in my case at the beginning i thought knowing more would be more helpful--for me this actually created as many problems as it solved. now i try to see experience and % calls as both a liability as well as an asset. most older hedge guys eventually go down in flames as the methods which worked very well for 10-30 years failed as conditions changed--i try to remember that. likewise that that soros gets as many trades out of things like back pain--as he does from considered reasoning.

Bottom line--you cannot ignore % stuff--but it's always second to the action. if you trouble choke up and ignore the % stuff for a while--and then phase it back in.

bonus point--try to consider trading over a longer period once in a while in terms of trying new things etc. most people are focused on what happens this trade or this month--but it's really a continuum. this keeps you positive on bad days--and cautious on good days.

[jarbo456]

bulls need to make a higher high here.

[Cobra]

Cobra: I think from seasonal reason, we may have a slow up day today, continue up tomorrow, last day of 2011, to retest Dec 27 high on last day of 2011, or new year day. then down.
Is it possible?

usually the last trading day of year is bearish.

[Cobra]

bulls need to make a higher high here.

need a decisive higher high.

[BullBear52x]

I got intraday sell flashing at me, but wait for the trade below blue box to pull the trigger.

BB52X, what about the next move?

If you got your order in on the evil side just hold on if Bears serious I expect to see yesterday's LOD taken out ( <127.74) right now I don't see any change I will post if I see that bear trend will not continue, so far it's still on schedule. I am sure we will close lower than where we are right now.

[wayne0708]

potential shs on 5min?

[Cobra]

key time. back test the morning high, bulls need a decisive higher high here, otherwise chances are the rebound is over.

[knock]

I got intraday sell flashing at me, but wait for the trade below blue box to pull the trigger.

BB52X, what about the next move?

If you got your order in on the evil side just hold on if Bears serious I expect to see yesterday's LOD taken out ( <127.74) right now I don't see any change I will post if I see that bear trend will not continue, so far it's still on schedule. I am sure we will close lower than where we are right now.

much appreciated!

[KENA]

For those that follow the Bradly turn dates ,yesterday 28th was the start of the MAJOR turn date.Trade carefully the next few days.These Major turn dates have been very accurate.Wait and see. Now lets see if we hit 126.42 today befor turning.

[jarbo456]

bulls need to make a higher high here.

need a decisive higher high.

aapl has been lagging a bit today, but is breaking out - so there's some support for bulls. however, currencies are already turning...though their participation in the rally today was muted.

[99er]

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold_29.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/silver_29.html

Very bullish here.

[Al_Dente]

Paging Baron von Trin
“””””I use .3 (The magic 3/.3)”””””

You mean on TRIN?
Bernie Schaeffer uses 3+ also
I can’t get 3+ to work reliably for me, at least not on OHLC (but I haven’t looked at 0.3 low) mmmm

1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[BullBear52x]

Right now we are retest 5 DMA area, see right side chart.

[bonzodon]

key time. back test the morning high, bulls need a decisive higher high here, otherwise chances are the rebound is over.

It looks like C&H, if really breaks out, it would be a gain of 100 points in dow

[tdo722]

key time. back test the morning high, bulls need a decisive higher high here, otherwise chances are the rebound is over.

Sold my Spy at 125.88 because I was scared it won't make it. Now watch it go away without me again.

[99er]

Updates

Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/crude_29.html
Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dollar_29.html
30-year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/30y_29.html

[fuddleduddle]

AUDJPY just shot up like mad.

SPY should have some stout resistance at 126.

[Cobra]

the OR target has been reached.

[tdo722]

I got intraday sell flashing at me, but wait for the trade below blue box to pull the trigger.

BB52X, what about the next move?

If you got your order in on the evil side just hold on if Bears serious I expect to see yesterday's LOD taken out ( <127.74) right now I don't see any change I will post if I see that bear trend will not continue, so far it's still on schedule. I am sure we will close lower than where we are right now.

much appreciated!

As of now, we are sure it will come to retest 1269. I don't believe in elliot waves but those folks calling for a higher high above 1269 to complete the 5th wave. After that, yesterday LOD will be sure to be visited. You can wait that long right?

[BullBear52x]

Paging Baron von Trin
“””””I use .3 (The magic 3/.3)”””””

You mean on TRIN?
Bernie Schaeffer uses 3+ also
I can’t get 3+ to work reliably for me, at least not on OHLC (but I haven’t looked at 0.3 low) mmmm

1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

TRIN is like any others indicators, how reliable on RSI 70/30? no different, but how can you tell if thing doesn't work out or does that's the art part of reading any of indicators.