01/04/2012 Intraday Watering

[BullBear52x]

This is my intraday play, so you know stops right at the top.

[uempel]

I agree with SB73 - 1280 is crucial: my best guess is that SPX will break 1280 and rush upwards for a few days, but the overall pattern does not look strong. I'm just waiting in order to short a short-covering rally. Hope I don't wait too long

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I'd like to add: I'm not going to short before the market shows signs of breaking and so far there is absolutly no indication... Whoever shorts now is betting against the odds. Shorting now is like a lucky punch in boxing - boxer is plain lucky if his fist hits home. But more often lucky punches fail.

[waverider]

Haha, both DOW & S&P are in bullish stages. And, DOW has a golden crossing too. IMO, it is a risky short here. [/quote]

Yes, a long setup was triggered this week. Intraday, this is a logical place to short, with a tight stop... Measured move of 127.68 target reached, three push up, yesterdays low, trendline resistance.

[Tabby]

This is my intraday play, so you know stops right at the top.

Where is your 1,2,3 wave? you are showing your 4th wave.

Or where is your 1,2,3,4,5, A if this is your B wave?

Thanks.

[uempel]

Twimc: Megaphone is a reversal signal - should a) be postioned at the top of a formation and b) preferably be visible on the daily/weekly/monthly...

[Me XMan]

BADA BANG! BADA BOOM!

This is my intraday play, so you know stops right at the top.

[BullBear52x]

This is my intraday play, so you know stops right at the top.

Where is your 1,2,3 wave? you are showing your 4th wave.

Or where is your 1,2,3,4,5, A if this is your B wave?

Thanks.

I am not a wave guy, I just play the megaphone formation, I can see it in the 4th, but I don't know if the wave guy label it as such.

[tdo722]

Failed 4 times today at the middle pitch fork line. As soon as it breaks this pitch fork line then we got ourself a long play. capice?

[tdo722]

Failed 4 times today at the middle pitch fork line. As soon as it breaks this pitch fork line then we got ourself a long play. capice?

But also, perhaps #4 is the worst number in chinese history. Could be bad news for the bulls if you are superstitious.

[Al_Dente]

Twimc: Megaphone is a reversal signal - should a) be postioned at the top of a formation and b) preferably be visible on the daily/weekly/monthly...

THANKS uempel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVyyyGxW ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250028427

[TraderGirl]

Twimc: Megaphone is a reversal signal - should a) be postioned at the top of a formation and b) preferably be visible on the daily/weekly/monthly...

THANKS uempel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVyyyGxW ... re=related

Bulkowski's Broadening Top: Can occur in any direction (upward 49.6%, downward 50.3%) and it happens when price pierces a trendline or moves beyond the end of the pattern.

And..Volume Trend: Downward for the best performance, regardless of the breakout direction.

[99er]

Update

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/es_3408.html

[Cobra]

if this is Broadening Top like BB said, then we just saw the partial decline, so I assume the bias is up? especially given the fact that the other assets agree with the direction.

[99er]

Update

NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/nq_04.html

[BullBear52x]

if this is Broadening Top like BB said, then we just saw the partial decline, so I assume the bias is up? especially given the fact that the other assets agree with the direction.

Cobra that is exactly in the text book, but from time to times betting against the odds with control risk is a strategy IMO.

[tdo722]

Failed 4 times today at the middle pitch fork line. As soon as it breaks this pitch fork line then we got ourself a long play. capice?

But also, perhaps #4 is the worst number in chinese history. Could be bad news for the bulls if you are superstitious.

Okay, SPY really like the middle pitchfork, let's see the 5th time.

[dcurban1]

Doc Al, here's an email I got from my muni bond buddy today:

The big (ok maybe not THAT big) surprise is that muni credit is STRONG rightnow. FY 2011 financial statements for states and local munis are rolling in. What is remarkable is that most entities are showing major surpluses. While not shocking, it IS surprising. Usually when states cut, the local credits get whipsawed, but we're seeing that local credits have also been prudent and cut accordingly. We are now deep into 2013 budget season (FY beginning July 1). What will be interesting for the macro take is, will states chill out and raise expenses (doubt it), will they lay off of cutting/ reforming pension benefits/OPEB (doubt it). This will however raise the heat on politicians to stop cutting. This should also raise the heat on Meredith whitney.
Ultimately, the market will need to puke up. Yesterday the market sold off a scoth (like 5-7 bps), but the 10 year muni is still at 1.88!!!!!!!!!
The question is, what will the catalyst for a sell off be? Will it be supply? Or will that continue to be anemic. Everyone's desk analyst is forecasting a 20% bump in supply this year. Is that enough? I dunno.... I think this year will continue to be a hodge podge of: 1. Idiosynchratic credit stories 2. Continuation of overall solid credit trend 3. Improved but still muted supply ( I actually am a touch bullish on supply) and 4. Technicals - i.e. where treasuries go. I think factor number 4 may play a larger role than normal, because the first 3 factors really just are not in the limelight. Factors 1-3 drove the market in 2011. ...

Great post arbo. My area is feeling a lot of pain from mismanagement, so much so that the voters changed the style of county government from a 3 person counsel to an 11 person home rule charter and the first order of business after being sworn in was to reopen the 2012 budget for more cuts in the event revenues fall short of targets.

[Al_Dente]

Twimc: Megaphone is a reversal signal - should a) be postioned at the top of a formation and b) preferably be visible on the daily/weekly/monthly...

THANKS uempel...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVyyyGxW ... re=related

Bulkowski's Broadening Top: Can occur in any direction (upward 49.6%, downward 50.3%) and it happens when price pierces a trendline or moves beyond the end of the pattern....And..Volume Trend: Downward for the best performance, regardless of the breakout direction.

Thanks tradergirl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq3YLhtu ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

strongest tick of the day, four (?) minutes ago