01/06/2012 Intraday Watering

[Me XMan]

*Like*

I see a lot of reasons to short other than price. Price and I emphasize price keeps me from shorting this bad boy other than my morning scalp. Unless we break below today's low nothing will change for me.

Ignoring the fundamental jibberish
1- Bearish sentiment too low
2- Reversal of a reversal of a reversal of a reversal.....
3- Bearish seasonality today and Monday
4- Divergences on the hourly charts
5- Strong dollar
6- SPY decoupling from world indicies

Based on the last 10 years it looks like a relatively flat close similar to yesterday with a minor gap up on Monday.

[Buckethead]

VIX and VXX is diving. Feels like accumulation still.

[FinancePhD]

Why when EURO down so much the pass several days and stock is not going down at all? Anybody know why?

equity = dumb money. at some point, things will correct.

Dude, don't let big money cheat on you. The mainstream writers arguing bond market are smarter than equity market are just releasing smokes, when smart money are absorbing cheap chips.

Let me point some evidences for you:

1. Bunch of big sharks are accumulating MBS from Dec, 2011;

2. After shaking down some undetermined players, GOLD started to climb again;

3. The rally of BAC up to $6.35 yesterday and maintained $6.22 so far told us most chips between $5-$6 are already absorbed by big moneys.

QE3 will probably buy MBS, so this is why BAC is rallying, they can sell their junk to the FED and get rid of it

Yes, it could be the true reason. So all sorts of evidences tell us the QE3 is near (may kick off as early as March).

[jarbo456]

from what i watch, this is a stronger reversal than the past two. but for bulls case, i'd like it to break to a new high.

[laoguo]

Thank you for the advice. It seems to be a risky trade; not much reward though.

EURO fund had 3 consecutive gap down in a row; anyone suggests at least a bounce?

BTW, it hits lower BB and outside of it, too.

moderate BB crash trade will be in effect if it can close below the band. buy at close and wait for the bounce...

not for me...but that seems the best setup for this trade.

[rola]

BULL TRAP

[waverider]

Nice euro update Al, it would be nice if the market would move around a bit.

[jarbo456]

BULL TRAP

my signals aren't showing divergence yet. just made a new high confirming the new intraday high on /ES.

[Al_Dente]

1 min
VIX lower low confirmed
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15


Yesterday’s news on AAII bearish sentiment
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2 ... iment.html
Also check Cobra’s “Market Outlook” last night for his analysis

[Mr. BachNut]

Pilot Short reloaded with short SPY at 128.03.
Market looks like it wants to go higher but I have other things to do.
I think I am OK if we have a green close today though a weak close would be better.
If next week is also an up week, this will have been a dumb idea.

[jarbo456]

Thank you for the advice. It seems to be a risky trade; not much reward though.

EURO fund had 3 consecutive gap down in a row; anyone suggests at least a bounce?

BTW, it hits lower BB and outside of it, too.

moderate BB crash trade will be in effect if it can close below the band. buy at close and wait for the bounce...

not for me...but that seems the best setup for this trade.

thanks for bring this up. i'm now looking at it...might be interesting to go for Jan 126 call options for a short term pop. NOT advice...just something i'm exploring myself now. anything counter trend is risky...with options - even riskier.

[Al_Dente]

Nice euro update Al, it would be nice if the market would move around a bit.

wavy: U know I got that “format” from you (thanks again)
Was hoping you’d see Europe ETFs picking up, albeit from lower lows

[iggintegrin]

thanks cobra.

this is always my questions.
I remember in the end of last december there was a big reversal when SPX touch the lower bound of the triangle.
but from SPY we still didn't see this happen.

so some time it is really hard to decide SPX or SPY to look at.

could you please elaborate a little bit more?

thanks

Corba~ it seems it will open low, close high today, what do you think?

come on, we had a gap up today. it's just 60 min, you already forgot that we had a gap up?

Cobra, based on the open on SPX we had gap down today, based on es it's a gap up.

The SPX open price is always wrong. this is due to NYSE tech reason. And this is why I use SPY instead of SPX. This is known issue for many many years. If you want to use candlestick chart don't use SPX, use SPY instead.

[SB73]

BULL TRAP

my signals aren't showing divergence yet. just made a new high confirming the new intraday high on /ES.

Take a look at 60 min RSI, MACD, CCI. I don't trade divergences, but try to remain aware of them.

[rola]

I still think that USA is not an island. Look what is happening, Europa is falling apart, Asia is sinking, but States are going to new highs, I do not belive....

[KENA]

Mkt moving the wrong direction the last 2 days..Big Ben is working overtime..The mkt will correct for it..It is just when not if..IMHO

[cougar]

SPY hit intraday support (127.3) and is now bouncing!
[...see Fast Renko chart in the morning]

…at which point UPRO became a BUY…
Still keeping UPRO.

[jarbo456]

/DX looking toppy'ish as well. what happens when /DX starts to correct?

equity markets correcting AND /dx correcting? further eroding the inverse correlation?

[Cobra]

thanks cobra.

this is always my questions.
I remember in the end of last december there was a big reversal when SPX touch the lower bound of the triangle.
but from SPY we still didn't see this happen.

so some time it is really hard to decide SPX or SPY to look at.

could you please elaborate a little bit more?

thanks

Corba~ it seems it will open low, close high today, what do you think?

come on, we had a gap up today. it's just 60 min, you already forgot that we had a gap up?

Cobra, based on the open on SPX we had gap down today, based on es it's a gap up.

The SPX open price is always wrong. this is due to NYSE tech reason. And this is why I use SPY instead of SPX. This is known issue for many many years. If you want to use candlestick chart don't use SPX, use SPY instead.

sorry don't understand your question. You seldom see SPX has gap because the open price is always wrong which is close to the last close therefore no gap. That's the only differences.

[99er]

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/copper_06.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/crude_06.html