01/06/2012 Intraday Watering

[gabor]

*Like*

I see a lot of reasons to short other than price. Price and I emphasize price keeps me from shorting this bad boy other than my morning scalp. Unless we break below today's low nothing will change for me.

Ignoring the fundamental jibberish
1- Bearish sentiment too low
2- Reversal of a reversal of a reversal of a reversal.....
3- Bearish seasonality today and Monday
4- Divergences on the hourly charts
5- Strong dollar
6- SPY decoupling from world indicies

Based on the last 10 years it looks like a relatively flat close similar to yesterday with a minor gap up on Monday.

These are all true and I agree with you. But what can you achieve with your short, when the prices are inching up and up and up. Loosing money. Everybody scandals the MARKET is always right. NO. Geroge Soros says the maret is very often wrong just like people who trade the market. If the market was always right, it would tend toward equilibrium, instead, bubbles are frequently created and then popped. MARKET is almost always wrong, now US equities are overpriced....but they can be overpriced more.

[99er]

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/gold_06.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/silver_06.html

[waverider]

/DX looking toppy'ish as well. what happens when /DX starts to correct?

equity markets correcting AND /dx correcting? further eroding the inverse correlation?

jarbo, does the aud/jpy /es spread bother you at all? I don't want to add longs here, but were clearly still in an uptrend.

[99er]

Updates

Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/dollar_06.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/30y_06.html

[Al_Dente]

Interesting to note how weak the NYAD looks today, compared with the NYAD at the 3 Jan high (green circles)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[noob]

Corba~ it seems it will open low, close high today, what do you think?

come on, we had a gap up today. it's just 60 min, you already forgot that we had a gap up?

Cobra, based on the open on SPX we had gap down today, based on es it's a gap up.

The SPX open price is always wrong. this is due to NYSE tech reason. And this is why I use SPY instead of SPX. This is known issue for many many years. If you want to use candlestick chart don't use SPX, use SPY instead.

Thanks, did not know that before!

[BullBear52x]

BULL TRAP

I can smell it also. look at EEM normally it will rally right along.

[99er]

Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx_352.html

You can put a fork in it.

[SB73]

Gabor,

Notice I said I will not short due to price action. I see no reason to short yet. These are actually not bad days to get long and play pennies because the bulls will defend this little uptrend like everything depended on it. Went long at 127.71 with stop now at 127.88. Can't make a whole lot, but it is better than nothing.

*Like*

I see a lot of reasons to short other than price. Price and I emphasize price keeps me from shorting this bad boy other than my morning scalp. Unless we break below today's low nothing will change for me.

Ignoring the fundamental jibberish
1- Bearish sentiment too low
2- Reversal of a reversal of a reversal of a reversal.....
3- Bearish seasonality today and Monday
4- Divergences on the hourly charts
5- Strong dollar
6- SPY decoupling from world indicies

Based on the last 10 years it looks like a relatively flat close similar to yesterday with a minor gap up on Monday.

These are all true and I agree with you. But what can you achieve with your short, when the prices are inching up and up and up. Loosing money. Everybody scandals the MARKET is always right. NO. Geroge Soros says the maret is very often wrong just like people who trade the market. If the market was always right, it would tend toward equilibrium, instead, bubbles are frequently created and then popped. MARKET is almost always wrong, now US equities are overpriced....but they can be overpriced more.

[laoguo]

Probably nobody here believes in Max Pain Theory anymore. But isn't that the time it will start to work?

OE week is still far away, but doesn't hurt to have a glance of SPY max pain as of now.

[jarbo456]

/DX looking toppy'ish as well. what happens when /DX starts to correct?

equity markets correcting AND /dx correcting? further eroding the inverse correlation?

jarbo, does the aud/jpy /es spread bother you at all? I don't want to add longs here, but were clearly still in an uptrend.

yes. but it all relates back to dollar strength, euro weakness...

so cautiously long until equity markets say otherwise.

when too many people are expecting/waiting/looking for a turn in the market...the longer it will take to happen.

[jarbo456]

if bulls are strong, this should be a buying opportunity. *intraday speak

[BullBear52x]

all of the pattern expert on this board, hello 1-2-3 intraday anyone? if you want to nail it where else? I am going for a walk.

[cougar]

BULL TRAP

I can smell it also. look at EEM normally it will rally right along.

Yep...This opportunistic bull just got out of the trap…before it closes…

[Al_Dente]

BULL TRAP

I can smell it also. look at EEM normally it will rally right along.

Baron:
TRIN 1.35
Note how it did not drop below 1 during this “rally”
It drives me nuts
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN& ... =249247714

[99er]

Update

VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/vix.html

Fireworks ahead.

[BullBear52x]

BULL TRAP

I can smell it also. look at EEM normally it will rally right along.

Baron:
TRIN 1.35
Note how it did not drop below 1 during this “rally”
It drives me nuts
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN& ... =249247714

you got that right, but why no bulls mentioned TNX nor DBV? people are selective on what they like to hear and see. this is the part when I said I want to keep FA to the minimum. may of us confusing ourselves with TA and FA way too much.

[waverider]

BULL TRAP

I can smell it also. look at EEM normally it will rally right along.

Yep...This opportunistic bull just got out of the trap…before it closes…

Ouch, they're trapped under cougars fan.

[laoguo]

If I had some extra cash, I would have shorted the open based on Cobra's NFP daily statistics.

But it seems bears are scared; they covered quickly and got squeezed.

If I took profit this morning, would I short again?

Hmmm..., yes I will.

And the squeezing then continues. Isn't that where we are now?

[Me XMan]

Damned topedoes. Bulls speed ahead.

Update

VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/vix.html

Fireworks ahead.