01/12/2012 Intraday Watering

[johnnywa]

FWIW, McHugh's next phi-mate turn date is March 7th and I have read March 7th is a key cycles date or astrological date or some such mumbo jumbo that I can't find right now.

Some interesting info about Bradley turn dates:

1. Sometimes have a 7-10 day window before and after:
Market turned July 23, 2011, 7 days from the July 29-30 major turn date
Market pulled back Jan 5th, 8 days after Dec 28th turn date
Market turned up on Dec 20th, 8 days before Dec 28th turn date

2. Sometimes it causes a turn in one or more indexes/markets:
Feb 17, 2011 Market had a major correction (and then recovered), but Semi's topped out on that date and Bonds bottomed at that time... Ray Merriman has market crest on March 7th
Dec 28, 2012 Silver and Gold both turned up on Dec 29th

Something to think about on the next big turn date of March 16, could have an affect around March 9th or March 23, and could mark a turn for a market other than SPX or INDU.... hmmmm.....

Thanks bobo, there is actually a cycle turn date window of Mar 5-9th coming up, but I am also an astro follower, and there is a Venus/Jupiter aspect that usually pulls markets up into it around Mar 14th, so it could get cut short from another stronger cycle/astro aspect, or go beyond, so I guess we will have to wait and see what happens... Dec 28th I thought would be a more significant date, but it mainly signaled a turn in the metals, but also we have Mercury in Sagittarius that began Jan 11th, supposed to give metals a 3-9 day rally.....???

[johnnywa]

Ray Merriman has a market crest on March7

[stucap]

Bears got two shots of espresso down at support....

Bulls get six cups of coffee (and counting) to try and break resistance.....

pretty sick ain't it.

...and if only this game were fair...

7th cup's a charm. No one asks questions when the market goes up in perpetuity. Rich get richer (including the crooks in DC). Everyone else treads water losing ground. La de dah.

I can't wait for ZH to re-release the BTFD animation videos. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

[TraderGirl]

Ray Merriman has a market crest on March7

I believe he says there could be a market crest "by" March 7th...

[BullBear52x]

It rhymes doesn't it?

BB52x,

It sure does rhymes. Check it out.

I was thinking the same, especially on the last spike high, we are still missing?

[johnnywa]

Ray Merriman has a market crest on March7

I believe he says there could be a market crest "by" March 7th...

"It is challenging that high again now as Jupiter is in 0 Taurus. Jupiter leaves this sector on March 7, 2012. If history repeats, then we expect the crest to be completed by then, if it is not already in."From his weekly update.I have to agree with your high on the 17th,just not enough time with weekend and MLK day to have the low in for 2 days

[TraderGirl]

Should have shorted those solar stocks yesterday like I mentioned for a short term trade! You snooze you lose!

[BlackThought]

Market is in Buy the dip mode

[BlackThought]

Retail traders overt bullish and hedge funds are in cash.

[bobo]

Do you know anything about the January 23rd Lindsay date?

Ray Merriman has a market crest on March7

I believe he says there could be a market crest "by" March 7th...

[quatzl]

Regarding the Al Brooks' books. Does anyone know if the new books are covering the same ground as his first book? I have not read him yet and was wondering if I should pick up his first book or start with the recent books just published.

[Cobra]

fib info. now I dare not blah blah 2 legs anymore, so let's wait. so far every morning dip was bought, there got to be one day that everything has changed. Don't know if it's today.

Thanks for the update. Isn't today so far go as exactly as you described in last night's report? We had a higher high, but only slightly, then the pullback starts and then the dip was bought again by bulls. Let's see how it goes for the rest of today? Will it go a little more up to teat 1290-1295 and then the real pullback start?

We need a double top here otherwise still bulls in control, so how the rest of the day goes is very important for bears.

Cobra,

I often see a double top the next day or day after. It doesn't necessarily have to be today would you agree?

better today, otherwise it's consolidation therefore is good for bulls - we'll have another breakout on the upside!

[BullBear52x]

approaching retest point. see left chart on MACD and RSI Bears still got it but need to see the reaction at the retest trend line, I see no new buy trigger so...short on

[knock]

Regarding the Al Brooks' books. Does anyone know if the new books are covering the same ground as his first book? I have not read him yet and was wondering if I should pick up his first book or start with the recent books just published.

better writing.

[SB73]

fib info. now I dare not blah blah 2 legs anymore, so let's wait. so far every morning dip was bought, there got to be one day that everything has changed. Don't know if it's today.

Thanks for the update. Isn't today so far go as exactly as you described in last night's report? We had a higher high, but only slightly, then the pullback starts and then the dip was bought again by bulls. Let's see how it goes for the rest of today? Will it go a little more up to teat 1290-1295 and then the real pullback start?

We need a double top here otherwise still bulls in control, so how the rest of the day goes is very important for bears.

Cobra,

I often see a double top the next day or day after. It doesn't necessarily have to be today would you agree?

better today, otherwise it's consolidation therefore is good for bulls - we'll have another breakout on the upside!

How close does the retest have to be to qualify.

[waverider]

Oh my, so many people looking for media pundits to tell them when the trend will change, lol. Listen to Cobra, not the people who don't even trade.

[TraderGirl]

Do you know anything about the January 23rd Lindsay date?

Ray Merriman has a market crest on March7

I believe he says there could be a market crest "by" March 7th...

No I don't know about that name Lindsay, but 23rd is supposed to represent a possible low, bouncing higher in to the 27/28th time frame...

[newbie_77]

so with all the up and down we are back to the same point as yesterday... .70 up and .50 down back to 129... LOL

[taggard]

Regarding the Al Brooks' books. Does anyone know if the new books are covering the same ground as his first book? I have not read him yet and was wondering if I should pick up his first book or start with the recent books just published.

have not seen the new book spent a lot of time with the old one. the flaw with the first book is the density and layout. the ideas for the most part are there. best move (barring a review on this site) is to look at the chapters in both books. my sense is the new books have all the old and more--how much more is anyone's guess. whatever happens you will not go wrong reading al's stuff. but you have to be the sort of person who is into details and willing to work a bit--if in fact you are going to follow his basic idea--which is more or less "every price bar tells a story".

hint--consider the ideas he notes about "reading every bar" and "being in the market a lot" and "taking only the best trades is better". there is conflict here which you can resolve in a way which suits you best. (for example--in my case there is often a second move between 7-8 that lasts till 8-10. if i catch this i can take the rest of the day off. another idea--second entries in trends (not always the same as the 2nd move cobra notes) allows one to relax if that is to one's liking. and so on. eg ideally learn all's stuff first--then modify it to fit your needs/strengths and even daily preferences.

good luck--it's fun stuff.

[Mr. BachNut]

Pilot Short still on. He made it through yesterday's round, which was pretty much a draw.
He has come out swinging this morning, but we'll wait til the end of the day before drawing conclusions.
Me thinks there may be some buy stops above that have been left untouched (unless they were cleared by the pre-market highs). The jackals wouldn't want to leave those behind.
That said, it is nice to see the VIX show some life. I am imagining long traders taking profits into the long weekend.
Max Pain for OPEX next week has ticked up to SPY 126. Just a feeling, but I can imagine the index and Max Pain making a rondevous around 127 next week but who knows...

Still fishing for an intermediate top, but strong technicals have been getting in the way. The thesis for Pilot Short expired some time ago.
I am surprised he is still in play, but what I am really struck by is how great the technicals have looked and how little the indexes have done to the upside. Resistance is clearly tough up here.

nicely put. earnings and options exp thinking intc reaction sort of key (imo)--my stuff shows 30 day simple moving average over bot about 1-27-12. there is nothing magic about this one indicator but as a rule hard declines tend to happen after this thing is fully played out--short term next week not too good on both 10 (short term) and 30 (longer term) and jan options ex is often down. intc--they expect a miss--but they are taking it into earnings high (so far). after watching intc for 15-18 years or so i sort of like the reaction as a tell. if we go up the 23.6 area of the entire decline from 2000 could be interesting. your "sell into the weakend" idea sure makes sense to me--if so maybe later today or tomorrow small bounce as sellers burn off and all 5 shorts cover

good luck with your short--myself just bailed a short term short and still holding a longer term late jan into feb idea (everything various qqq options traded directionally)

My philosophy on Pilot trades is to size them so that the value at risk is pretty small and give them liberal stops. I have to do this because they are counter-trend.
If the trade works, I stack layers on it to scale. If not, I go neutral or realign with trend. Sometimes you learn more from a failed experiment than a successful one.
Pilot trades play two roles for me. One, they allow me to test with money a reversal thesis. Two, I have found the market is often effective at not confirming a signal until it has removed a lot of juice from a trade, for example by gapping above a resistance line. So, instead of a 3-1 reward to risk trade, you are left with 2-1. If a pilot trade is right, it can save enough juice to keep the trade attractive and scalable.
On the present trade, my thesis (Santa Claus rally ends 1st week in January) is blown. I would close it, but other data suggests a top may be near so I will let the stop deal with it. From an intermediate term perspective, the market is deciding whether to test the December and perhaps November lows (possibly confirming a double top) or start marching up to an Inverse Head and Shoulders target well north of current levels. I am happy to go either way after this battle at resistance is done.