01/19/2012 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

volume surge. let's see any pullback here. watch green line below.

[BullTart]

LOL!!! There is the big buy program kicking in... exactly at 3:00pm to the dot. Right on schedule.

Could it really be this easy to make money?

You bought LONGs at 3PM?

No I didn't.

Looks like the buy program ended. But where is the hand-off? No more short covering? No more long buyers? It needs follow through or else it will deflate into the close. Unless another buy program is kicked off at 3:30pm

[Tabby]

The Federal Reserve is likely to step in with $1 trillion worth of easing that could be announced as soon as this month, according to a growing consensus of economists who see the recent uptick in economic growth as unsustainable.

With the Fed’s Open Market Committee set to meet next week, expectations are rising that the languishing housing market will drive the central bank to buy up mortgage-backed securities.

The goal of the purchases will be to drive down interest rates even further from current record-low levels, and, less obviously, to spur confidence that more monetary tools remain to stimulate the economy.

Of course, the announcement also could push stock prices higher, as did the Fed's last balance sheet expansion begun in November 2010.

Just a few months ago, market observers speculated that another round of quantitative easing — QE3, in this case — would be politically infeasible and probably unnecessary given hopes for better growth in 2012.

But with housing stuck in neutral and a European recession on the horizon, economists believe QE3 is all but certain.

Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, released a paper Thursday that makes the case for more easing, which he said could push stock prices higher to where the Standard & Poor’s 500 rises another 11 percent to 1450.

When the market is so BULLISH, it is time to be fearful. It means the big boys want to sell on strength. For the House to pass $1T is difficult, not to mention that Republicans are in favor of cuts than spending.
The precption of QE3 on the table; it could push the market higher by itself.

[FinancePhD]

Answer to Q1: The boys are trying to unload their chips from now on.

Answer to Q2: LTRO is a shadow QE in nature. But it is not a forceable QE that is executed by ECB. Instead, it is a volunteer QE that is determined by the confidence of commercial banks. If all the banks deposited the cheap loan back to ECB rather than purchasing sovereign bonds and equities, then the shadow QE is useless.

The former president of ECB is a germany, so no surprise he will object any QE for inflation concerns. While Draghi's boss is Monti and Sarkozy, he surely will do a QE in the favor of Italy and France.

I believe lots of people are watching this line. I don't see logic behind this kind of line but amazingly it does work more often than not. I'm not implying it'd work this time, I'm just saying what I'm saying, this seems not logic line does work, very interesting.

Hi Corba. The analysts and CNBC are talking about QE3 again. Please refer: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46058897
I believe this is the behind-the-scene hand to push market all the way to 131x from 1200 since December. What do you think?

there'll be no QE3.

I think the recent run up is because Euro Zone is actually doing the QE.

Thanks cobra. Two questions: (1) why does CNBC post such article about QE3 coming? (2) Why nobody said Europe is doing QE since December? Why didn't EUROPE do it earlier if it can solver all the problems?

[Petsamo]

So far, it's looking like a gap up Friday

[TraderGirl]

We got some divergence, INDU higher, but all others did not participate....

[soku]

We got some divergence, INDU higher, but all others did not participate....

what do u mean? i think dow is the weakest among the major 3 today.

[jarbo456]

a breakdown in aud/jpy...but looks like it'll recover on this single bar. saved again!

[pcx]

volume surge. let's see any pullback here. watch green line below.

Cobra, one request -- could you please make green line thicker for aging population to be able to see or post the level. great blog and service. thanks

[TraderGirl]

We got some divergence, INDU higher, but all others did not participate....

what do u mean? i think dow is the weakest among the major 3 today.

In that last round of buying, into 3:20pm INDU had a higher high, but all other indexes did not make a new high

[proteus46]

This is the weekly chart for VXX with the ADX technical indicator below the chart.

I thought it was interesting that the ADX line crossing below the ADXR was a good signal
to buy XIV.

Circled are the trend changes and the time to buy VXX (or TVIX probably). Note the extreme values (20 or 40+ were buy signals) and also
a sell signal in early October 2011.

This may help with swing trading the VIX.

[trendfollower]

Video on the 5 (dollar, oil, gold, silver, index):

http://bit.ly/wOl9e0

[Al_Dente]

PAGING KING COBRA, Chairman of the Board:

Every once in a while, when things get really rough, some of us on board go to sleep listening to this song…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6blsCGd ... re=related

[climbera5]

Market internals say it all. Today's NYSE breadth is up but weak as is the A/D, both reflected in the price action. Sentiment is bullish so I think the market will continue upward until buyers are exhausted, but it won't be a rhino horn spike, but probably a rounded top, gasping for a few days or weeks until it crashes. If this bull run lasts into Feb. or longer, then I'll look for a single or double divergence on the 60 or daily to go short.

This is deja vu; market is ignoring bad news and jumping on the good. Until that changes its best to buy on the dip (higher highs, lower lows for now) . . .

[fuddleduddle]

There was this guy who commented awhile ago about being 300% short and that he was a bear with balls. I hope he took the advice Cobra gave him shortly after.

[67Chevy]

whose It made by?? and what barrel length??

A Springfield Armory (5") with beavertail and top of the line trigger.

I just had a gunsmith work on the lug and get it to sub 1" at 25 yds and put a red dot scope on it for bullseye, which I'm just starting.

I usually carry a HKP2000...allows for a 2nd strike and goes bang every time.

Picked up a CZ Target a few months ago from the Custom Shop as I want to start IDPA soon. I belong to a club where the indoor range is 24/7 and 5 miles way.

Good choice...got a Springfield 1911 that has some custom work. Love that gun, it drives nails.

[Richarab]

There was this guy who commented awhile ago about being 300% short and that he was a bear with balls. I hope he took the advice Cobra gave him shortly after.

i think you misunderstood. I was describing myself and said,
"short, hairy like a bear, but with balls 300% bigger than most."

[SB73]

Ok so I have dumped more data into my analysis. Pardon the poor column alignment


# Gap Up # Gap Down % Up Gap Up Avg Gap Down Avg Gaps > 1% Gaps < -1%
Last 10 6 4 60.0% 0.75% -0.44% 2 -
Last 25 16 8 66.7% 0.64% -0.41% 4 -
Last 50 26 23 53.1% 0.88% -0.53% 10 3
Last 100 52 47 52.5% 0.88% -0.78% 21 13
Last 250 130 118 52.4% 0.65% -0.64% 29 28
Last 500 267 230 53.7% 0.57% -0.58% 43 42
Last 750 407 340 54.5% 0.60% -0.62% 70 69
Last 1000 534 461 53.7% 0.66% -0.72% 98 111

[Al_Dente]

Indicators, ssssssshhhhhh http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =253530436

[jarbo456]

VIX update:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... JWmBZTgL40