01/24/2012 Intraday Watering

[champix]

For Al, forks are there...

you short /CL? i am from a day or two ago.

I was long this morning (thanx to the forks), now no poz... I think I goona short @ 99.30-99.40

i should've covered my short this morning. oh well, i got in at 99.50. so i'll hold for now.

I am bearish biased on CL too... problem is the volatility during NY session.
I was a little bit too greedy @ 99.37 to short... my guess is that we are due to go lower (maybe 98 today and 97 in the night session)... my guess only !

[Al_Dente]

Where is Baron von Shark with trin and other stuff?
Here’s mine, not as good as his

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15


[edit: oooops, there he is....]

[Xian]

Unfortunately, I think this may end up being a buy the dip kind of day. Still looking for a turn down by this Fri or next Monday...??

Today is the day of the Presidential Address!
Guess who is coming tonight for dinner?!

Who is coming for dinner?

Blonde

You calling me Blonde?? I didn't know if it was a saying (which I was unaware of) or if he was asking me a question, so I was trying to be polite....

Please let me know if you are really being that immature....???

No, not THAT immature, worse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a56FnhtuGI

[SWalsh]

at least the measured move target reached, well, almost.

There are a lot of reasons that this should be a solid down week. But if this is to be like 2009, every time you have a setup for a 5-3-5-3-5 (an impulse wave of 1-2-3-4-5) you get a 5-3-5 (A-B-C) as they know where they have to stop it. That's why it happens. Given the 90%+ times they did it to this kind of setup in 2009 ( a statistically impossible wave counting year), and only did NOT do so when QE2 ran out, it is unquestioned that they know where they need to hold the mkt, and that the Fed is still pumping money in, announced QExx or not. That quote stuffing this morning that started immediately might be 2nd only to August 9th when they turned the mkt and shut-down trading platforms.

What's that quote? Something like, "I had to break the free mkt system to save it". I don't see the mkts as "free" anything but "shovel ready" to remove money from the public. It beats working with asphalt and repairing an overpass.

They can surprise me and this can be a wave "ii" bounce in wave 3 down and we close below 130.00 SPY, but we have done a retracement that would appear not to fit and the speech is tonight.

[SB73]

Not including today SPY up 18 out of the last 22 sessions. Typically we should see at least a one day flush so that everyone can reposition.

[johnnywa]

at least the measured move target reached, well, almost.

hmmm missed the tan bar target by 5 points though

[BullBear52x]

Where is Baron von Shark with trin and other stuff?
Here’s mine, not as good as his

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15


[edit: oooops, there he is....]

here, look at NYUPV:NYDNV over sold this morning but the buying from the over sold area is way over whelm, let see if buyers can regain 5dma, the man is going to speak tonight, so, like many here already mentioned it ain't gonna drop today. weakness today is real, I'll post when another signal hit the wire.

[fehro]

from a daily view, interesting that the low bounced off of the trendlines for now..

[Al_Dente]

1 min
tick suggests bull bias at the moment
nyadv and nydec suggest lobster/whipsaw, slight bear bias at the moment

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[SWalsh]

11:10 time:

I think there are about 6,000 listed stocks. There were three 400+ stocks bid for 3 times. I call them "pings". With about a 90% correlation in stocks now, at times I have seen 800 sticks "stuffed" but usually it's 400-450 that are spiked to move the mkt. Remember, they aren't traded when that happens, but rather thinly filled with what might be in the way and well under 10% of volume bid for. I'm quite serious, for those who have not been aware of this, that the "banks" and the Fed play on a pinball machine where they get to turn "TILT" off. There is not enough volume in the market to stop them and no one to prosecute them if they could even understand what they were looking at.

At this point I wouldn't give a retest of the lows, despite what looks like a corrective move up (as it is forced) even a 10% chance. They drew their line in the sand and stopped the decline. Absent some solid economic news there is a very strong external bias to this mkt and it is to the long side. I didn't realize that fully until I got this HFT subscription to see what is happening and they are behind every spike.

[TraderGirl]

The IMF states that Europe's debt crisis is in a "perilous new phase", but it will only cause a "mild recession"...???

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-cu ... iteid=bnbh

[Mr. BachNut]

Equity position is Market Neutral.
Intermediate trend is up.
Still fishing for a top but do not have a view on whether it will be corrective short term top or intermediate trend change top.
Not inclined to take any stands prior to Fed Meeting outcomes, though my recollection is that lately equities have been selling off after fed.

[uempel]

There was a signal, but reaction was weak.

[uempel]

SWalsh, great stuff, but pls in English. Thanks.

[HappyFriday]

The IMF states that Europe's debt crisis is in a "perilous new phase", but it will only cause a "mild recession"...???

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-cu ... iteid=bnbh

Disagree this time.
IMF cuts its global outlook, look like contraction is coming very soon.

[BullBear52x]

Intraday SELL! 131.29

[taggard]

at least the measured move target reached, well, almost.

There are a lot of reasons that this should be a solid down week. But if this is to be like 2009, every time you have a setup for a 5-3-5-3-5 (an impulse wave of 1-2-3-4-5) you get a 5-3-5 (A-B-C) as they know where they have to stop it. That's why it happens. Given the 90%+ times they did it to this kind of setup in 2009 ( a statistically impossible wave counting year), and only did NOT do so when QE2 ran out, it is unquestioned that they know where they need to hold the mkt, and that the Fed is still pumping money in, announced QExx or not. That quote stuffing this morning that started immediately might be 2nd only to August 9th when they turned the mkt and shut-down trading platforms.

What's that quote? Something like, "I had to break the free mkt system to save it". I don't see the mkts as "free" anything but "shovel ready" to remove money from the public. It beats working with asphalt and repairing an overpass.

They can surprise me and this can be a wave "ii" bounce in wave 3 down and we close below 130.00 SPY, but we have done a retracement that would appear not to fit and the speech is tonight.

swalsh "we had to destroy the village to save it" (re ben tre). well if you are into kali thinking which destruction and construction are the same thing seen from 2 different angles. . .it's sort a works. here is the thing--"the public" has been losing money in markets for the last 10k years as long as man has been around. what i find most frustrating is that the average guy actually puts more time into planning his 2 week a year vacation (assuming he still has a job) than he does watching his "investments".

i see that you feel very strongly the system is a mess. well i am 58 and it's been a mess since i was even slightly aware. we could see this coming in the 70s. but we are the system. it's not some dark small group (although there are plenty of these) it's all of us. nobody is clean if they are using the system--and we all do. so it's closer to the Indian idea of tantra (kali in the above case) than it is not.

going back to the public--the nyt once (was early 90s) printed the following data--13% of the american public can take a 2 page newspaper story and extract the data and then formulate an argument based on the FACTS in that story. to my mind this translates as 87% of the american public cannot understand any serious issue. the same story estimated that something like 69% could read a bus schedule and figure out how to get on a bus.

so the my point is we are the problem and we are the solution. if the so called public wants to win--it means giving up weekends and so on for say 5 years to understand what they are up against--and then playing being able to read a 2 page story and deal. i keep reading how the market is tweaked etc--but the 5 min stuff (al brooks/cobra) still works. anyone can learn this stuff in a year or two starting from scratch.

Bottom line--i hear what you are saying about the nature of corruption and dishonesty. But knowing that one must take some action other than saying the game is rigged--if one wants to get ahead. what is not as commonly discussed is that the public is not doing that. perhaps out of ignorance. perhaps out of fear. it's hard to say because like the above destruction=creation it's everything at the same time.

If people want out of the cycle--they are going to have to study--maybe give up contact sports and pop music for a few years. if this is the case--they can win. for example i gather your kids are fairly bright as you are. they chose to go to college. they are now pressed to get paid for their efforts (and i hope they are not stuck on student loans). but with their skills they can study al brooks for 1 year and trade effectively. i was broke and under pressure when i got started and used my only path--credit cards to take positions (leaps--long term equity anticipation options 1-3 years sort of thing)in INTC. it took me 4 years of paper trading to make the first trade--during a period i was working 80 hours a week to barely make it(my business owned me--i assure you-- the situation was hyper marginal) to learn basic options. and then i risked everything i had. often trading from a cell phone in a truck in the woods with no charts-trading intc or amat from memory. it worked. But it was not easy.

all i am saying is that each of us has serious resources if we choose to use them--we are best served to focus on what we can do at our best and not by focusing on the impediments to that action. I DON'T DENY ANY OF YOUR MAJOR POINTS--i am trying to include them. and say "how can we win given the situation?". i can only think of 4 elements of that action (1) be one of the 13%. (2) study whatever on your own. (3) take serious calculated risks. (4) be aware that "the odds" are more a physical system thing--and that living learning entities skew the math--eg think outside the box.

good luck on your trades and as always with your kids.

[SB73]

out of earlier long...lunch money. Back to neutral. I think we may chop our way down to 1300 before pushing back up to 1335.

[TraderGirl]

Equity position is Market Neutral.
Intermediate trend is up.
Still fishing for a top but do not have a view on whether it will be corrective short term top or intermediate trend change top.
Not inclined to take any stands prior to Fed Meeting outcomes, though my recollection is that lately equities have been selling off after fed.

I think you might be right, might be a sell the news kind of situation... If we don't start to turn down by Fri or Monday, then this thing could continue till Feb 10th, but if it starts to turn on Monday, we will have 9-10 trading days until the next big turn date on Feb 10th. Depending on from where you start, the last correction in beginning of December lasted 8-10 trading days into Dec 19th.

[Cobra]

still nothing to say. since AUDJPY and RSP lead, so I guess bulls are fine.