01/25/2012 Intraday Watering

[dcurban1]

$BDI: Looks like the same thing happened Nov 2010. $BDI began a 60%+ slide but the market continued up, up, away

nice chart and have to agree that BDI can't be taken as a stand alone indicator.

i have also seen many comparing the start of this year to the start of 2011 as well.

I have been following the port numbers out of Long Beach and Los Angeles and they confirm the weakness in the BDI. Both imports and exports were down last year.

This leads me to question the PMI numbers out of Chicago. How can we be showing 3% growth when the rest of the world is showing negative? Especially when exports are down.

Something is not right with the numbers.

are the economic numbers ever really "right"?

that's why we don't follow that fundamental stuff...right??? hahaha

Generally you can account for certain items but the numbers we are putting out are so out of whack with the rest of the world. I am surprised nobody has mentioned it yet.

[Me XMan]

The higher it goes up the harder it falls...

If it makes us bears feel any better, there was a

2 million last sell on IWM and a
1.15 million last sell on SPY

[proteus46]

Does anyone like USO? It isn't as overbought.

I'm going to wait until it gets to at least 39.25 before buying SCO

[BullBear52x]

Thanks Cobra and everyone GLTA

TA note:

Short FAS stop at 83.00
Short TNA stop at 55.50
Short SSO stop at 52.50

[SWalsh]

Sooo much negative divergences.....


If SPY wont go down....TA is worthless...

There has been an increasingly high rate of negative divergence being invalidated despite patterns that would point towards declines.

May I acquaint you with 2009 where not one major divergence worked?

A friend of mine spent time and analyzed classic TA signals in 2009. The conclusion he came to what that they either generated themselves and were then taken advantage of when short, or they were helped to be generated to get shorts in to then run their stops. The point he made to me was that with so many PhD programmers on Wall Street, he believed they could work the market into positions that would be acted upon to then blow those positions out. My understanding is that a DeMark Daily Signal was triggered last night. I don't follow that methodology but it developing a good track record, as per someone using it, on most timeframes to get battered.


U.S. Attorney’s Office December 10, 2010

"PREET BHARARA, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that SERGEY ALEYNIKOV was found guilty today by a jury in Manhattan federal court of one count of theft of trade secrets and one count of transportation of stolen property in interstate and foreign commerce, in connection with the theft of proprietary computer code concerning a high-frequency trading platform from his former employer, Goldman Sachs. U.S. District Judge DENISE L. COTE presided over the two-week trial".


In that case it was stated that "in the wrong hands" the software could be used to manipulate the markets.

[SWalsh]

Sooo much negative divergences.....

If SPY wont go down....TA is worthless...

T/A is worthless, if you're using it to chart down moves

here is the TRIPLE LIKE button?

[BlackThought]

Sooo much negative divergences.....


If SPY wont go down....TA is worthless...

There has been an increasingly high rate of negative divergence being invalidated despite patterns that would point towards declines.

May I acquaint you with 2009 where not one major divergence worked?

A friend of mine spent time and analyzed classic TA signals in 2009. The conclusion he came to what that they either generated themselves and were then taken advantage of when short, or they were helped to be generated to get shorts in to then run their stops. The point he made to me was that with so many PhD programmers on Wall Street, he believed they could work the market into positions that would be acted upon to then blow those positions out. My understanding is that a DeMark Daily Signal was triggered last night. I don't follow that methodology but it developing a good track record, as per someone using it, on most timeframes to get battered.


U.S. Attorney’s Office December 10, 2010

"PREET BHARARA, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced that SERGEY ALEYNIKOV was found guilty today by a jury in Manhattan federal court of one count of theft of trade secrets and one count of transportation of stolen property in interstate and foreign commerce, in connection with the theft of proprietary computer code concerning a high-frequency trading platform from his former employer, Goldman Sachs. U.S. District Judge DENISE L. COTE presided over the two-week trial".


In that case it was stated that "in the wrong hands" the software could be used to manipulate the markets.

SWalsh.. we all know that the market is manipulated. the fed has their hands all over it, the banks are leveraged so much that they can't allow the market to drop a huge %. therefore, the fed does what they always do, inflate bubbles.

[fehro]

$VIX ...Gap was filled today

[fehro]

fwiw.. bounce again off of support on the daily... target 1355ish? blue/green channel on 60m, blue on daily?

[SWalsh]

you're US anarchy quote was kind of wacky...

Are you really serious? I actually have met that guy and shot with him. He is in his late 50s and overthrew two Russian satellite government as well as fought in Afghanistan. Russian Special Forces guys are not to be trifled with. Plus, they have no sense of humor.

That was sage advice as to what takes place to the people left in the remnants of a government that has been taken down. He saw that and it's aftermath.

The problem, and I mean no offense, is that people do not fully understand what will be left when people think the dissolution of this government is for the best and a replacement steps in. Our enemies are more than ready to jump onto our shores if we cannot defend them.

Please read that again and tell me what would begin to happen with no police inside of 100 miles of you. I offer up the LA Riots and Hurricane Andrew for you to consider.

I have a fairly good working knowledge of history and nothing in that post surprised me! What I didn't post were the points he made of what he saw in the way of the pain and suffering placed upon the people who thought things would get better and cried that they had thought revolution was best. That's why he stated to work with the ballot box until it is impossible to do so.

Politically speaking, I doubt you will ever read a better piece as to why we must hold this nation together, while we have a president who divides it.

[jarbo456]

you're US anarchy quote was kind of wacky...

Are you really serious? I actually have met that guy and shot with him. He is in his late 50s and overthrew two Russian satellite government as well as fought in Afghanistan. Russian Special Forces guys are not to be trifled with. Plus, they have no sense of humor.

That was sage advice as to what takes place to the people left in the remnants of a government that has been taken down. He saw that and it's aftermath.

The problem, and I mean no offense, is that people do not fully understand what will be left when people think the dissolution of this government is for the best and a replacement steps in. Our enemies are more than ready to jump onto our shores if we cannot defend them.

Please read that again and tell me what would begin to happen with no police inside of 100 miles of you. I offer up the LA Riots and Hurricane Andrew for you to consider.

I have a fairly good working knowledge of history and nothing in that post surprised me! What I didn't post were the points he made of what he saw in the way of the pain and suffering placed upon the people who thought things would get better and cried that they had thought revolution was best. That's why he stated to work with the ballot box until it is impossible to do so.

Politically speaking, I doubt you will ever read a better piece as to why we must hold this nation together, while we have a president who divides it.

just joking man. i appreciate the story.

i'm all about keeping the government together. but the fact is you can't incorporate change until you have the fortitude to oppose some of the status quo.

in the meantime...NFLX profits down 13%...but good enough to pop it 10% AH.

[SWalsh]

Market wont implode....maybe long-term trend is now BUBBLY up....

Ever read Galbraith's "The Great Crash of 1929"? The situation was actually more stable at that time and the headlines read like today.

http://www.amazon.com/Great-Crash-1929- ... 0547248164

I'd have given an Argentina styled situation a 10% chance two years ago. I'm at 50/50 between inflation/deflation now.

One thing is for sure, whichever it is, government won't help the people. They never do.

[stlwater]

well, guess that's it for today. huge blow to bears, so today's poll might be interesting. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Bears should be hibernating.. It's not spring yet.

[SWalsh]

in the meantime...NFLX profits down 13%...but good enough to pop it 10% AH.

If they go under I will be pissed. I have a 28" computer monitor for a screen with a great surround system. My upstairs TV has a phase/image issue and I don't even care!

g'nite

[stlwater]

2000% agree with you Walsh. You're a smart man.

you're US anarchy quote was kind of wacky...

Are you really serious? I actually have met that guy and shot with him. He is in his late 50s and overthrew two Russian satellite government as well as fought in Afghanistan. Russian Special Forces guys are not to be trifled with. Plus, they have no sense of humor.

That was sage advice as to what takes place to the people left in the remnants of a government that has been taken down. He saw that and it's aftermath.

The problem, and I mean no offense, is that people do not fully understand what will be left when people think the dissolution of this government is for the best and a replacement steps in. Our enemies are more than ready to jump onto our shores if we cannot defend them.

Please read that again and tell me what would begin to happen with no police inside of 100 miles of you. I offer up the LA Riots and Hurricane Andrew for you to consider.

I have a fairly good working knowledge of history and nothing in that post surprised me! What I didn't post were the points he made of what he saw in the way of the pain and suffering placed upon the people who thought things would get better and cried that they had thought revolution was best. That's why he stated to work with the ballot box until it is impossible to do so.

Politically speaking, I doubt you will ever read a better piece as to why we must hold this nation together, while we have a president who divides it.

[SWalsh]

SWalsh.. we all know that the market is manipulated. the fed has their hands all over it, the banks are leveraged so much that they can't allow the market to drop a huge %. therefore, the fed does what they always do, inflate bubbles.

If you have never read "The Quiet Coup" by former IMF chief Simon Johnson, search The Atlantic Monthly online. It is well worth it.

He warned that he tells banana republics, "Are you ready to get serious?" Obama was not. The reasons are unimportant. But he built an oligarch class such that Pravda congratulated us on it. And what we are seeing is what Johnson warned about, which leads to depression.

[SWalsh]

2000% agree with you Walsh. You're a smart man.

I'll send you my wife's e-mail! Sometimes she wonders

We are not possibly going to grow our way out of this problem. We need 140,000 jobs a month to remain at the same unemployment rate. So those in charge don't want hell to happen on their watch. The market will eventually enact a dear price upon us. That's the part that worries me.

I hate to relate a horrible story, but it makes my point.

We went to the wake of a 48 year old woman last night. She did some volunteer work in school with her HS kids to keep busy, but the husband lost his job 2 years ago and they had no health insurance. She collapsed Friday night and died Monday. She had breast cancer that spread to her brain and liver. Had she had a physical 2 years ago a mastectomy might have had her here today, or at least for a number of years.

America sorely needs a physical. Instead, we are eating a diet of pigs in the blanket and a bottle of Jack every day, unwilling to deal with the problems. The value of the Dow has little to do with the economy, and often nothing. That it is double it's true valuation is only argued by economists whose jobs depend upon saying "things are cheap".

Thanks,
Walsh

[SWalsh]

Generally you can account for certain items but the numbers we are putting out are so out of whack with the rest of the world. I am surprised nobody has mentioned it yet.

Go to an affair and talk to people about their families and themselves. They'll mention it for sure!

I know some uber liberals and they don't even believe anymore.

Funny thing is they like to go shooting. They refuse to believe the far left wants America disarmed.

[SWalsh]

Ooopz1 again

I hope you don't mind, but that picture is so good I'm sending it to a few people.

[edwindes]

you're US anarchy quote was kind of wacky...

Are you really serious? I actually have met that guy and shot with him. He is in his late 50s and overthrew two Russian satellite government as well as fought in Afghanistan. Russian Special Forces guys are not to be trifled with. Plus, they have no sense of humor.

That was sage advice as to what takes place to the people left in the remnants of a government that has been taken down. He saw that and it's aftermath.

The problem, and I mean no offense, is that people do not fully understand what will be left when people think the dissolution of this government is for the best and a replacement steps in. Our enemies are more than ready to jump onto our shores if we cannot defend them.

Please read that again and tell me what would begin to happen with no police inside of 100 miles of you. I offer up the LA Riots and Hurricane Andrew for you to consider.

I have a fairly good working knowledge of history and nothing in that post surprised me! What I didn't post were the points he made of what he saw in the way of the pain and suffering placed upon the people who thought things would get better and cried that they had thought revolution was best. That's why he stated to work with the ballot box until it is impossible to do so.

Politically speaking, I doubt you will ever read a better piece as to why we must hold this nation together, while we have a president who divides it.

and one way we can begin to keep this nation together is to avoid using statements like this one: "while we have a president who divides it". remember that in a democracy there is a 0.5 probability that you'l offend half the membership of this board with that statement and that is not going to help keeping us together, is it?