01/27/2012 Intraday Watering

[dcurban1]

That's why Merkozy do not want the default option. It will open the door for others to default.
EURO gonna be dead in 5 years IMO.

Putting TVIX into perspective here.... we are at a major cross roads and extremely high point of interest in the next few days / week.

All in for the moment until resolution is executed soon.

Crisis can be manufactured. In August, a Greece default was the end of the world. 2 days ago on a Bloomberg interview, Matt Miller
brought up a potential Greece default to 2 equity advisors , their reply, was like... so big deal! They were bullish.

Greece is small enough that it's a blip to just about everyone --- the problem is that if Greece defaults, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc will want to too. Just like "too big to fail" is a horrible precedent, so is "feel free to default when austerity measures will prevent your reelection"

This is true. Unfortunately, Portugese yields are spiking which means they are next. No wonder the EU banks are redepositing borrowed funds. If Greece takes a 70% haircut and Portugal is next who is after that?

What is the risk profile if the private sector takes a haircut and the public sector stays whole.

[Cobra]

the 4th touch less and less likely the support would hold.

[dcurban1]

Looked at the Dollar last night.

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/01/ ... 12-us.html

[proteus46]

The SMI Ergodic Indicator has given reliable signals for the QQQ. For now, it's too soon for a swing-trader to short QQQ.

[waverider]

Fitch just downgraded Spain, Belgium, Italy, Cyprus

[SWalsh]

You put in sell stops and machines hit them....any questions?

I wonder how long it took between entry and rape

And they complained about how crooked trading floors were

AND then the smacked it the other way back up with two spikes...LOL.

[Al_Dente]

BULLTART
Anyway, according 2 yr link (thanks) we should know Sunday if Iran forces a black swan on us, or at least on Europe/us.
Iran sounds like threats, reacting to sanctions. Will they go the next step and shoot themselves in the foot/feet?
PS interesting how “buried” that news is, scarce mention in major media(?)……but maybe traders saw this already and reacted sell/down ………..????
Please comment further

[uempel]

Update:

[BullTart]

Still watching the Iran and Oil setup here... ZH posted a Reuters report that the EU has agreed on an embargo of Iranian oil in principle.
BS Alert: Iranian Oil - BS 4
As a nominated BS (Black Swan) monitor, I am giving this a BS level of 4.
BS level goes from 5 to 1, with 1 meaning that BS event is just about to happen.

i'm debating the merits of shorting oil here. i might put a small short on...but i think there's room for this BS to run the oil market to over 104

Following up here from an older thread some time ago.... I am raising the BS monitor alert from 4 to 3 now.
They will vote on Sunday to stop sending any oil to Europe. Fine. But this has the backing of the Ayatollah. Which means this has got some serious heat to it being passed. And if so, they will act immediately, as in next week.
Europe was set to stop importing in July. If Iran pushes through, there goes their 6 months of planning and preparations.
China, Russia et. al will obviously buy the oil meant for Europe. Heck, they even bypass petrodollars already (beginning of the end of the dollar's reserve currency status).
Keep in mind, Greece relies on Iran for a whopping 1/3 of all its oil imports. Italy is in the high teens.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 652339.cms
Let's see how this plays out. If this actually transpires, I will have to move the BS monitor alert from 3 to 2. This is getting serious now people.

Bulltart
I’m confused now
Couldn’t u invert it for simplicity sake, eg:
1=lowest risk of black swawn = good = long oil?
5=highest risk of black swan = bad = short oil?

IN OTHER WORDS, 4-5 would be “Its getting serious now people”
Sooooo, today u would be RAISING the bs alert from maybe 3 to 4 which is closer to bad/short oil (and short everything else) ???????
What am I missing? I’m all lopsided here
TIA

The Black Swan meter is just the same as the DefCon scale (remember that?).

Defcon 1 = nuclear war is immiment.

Black Swan meter 1 = Black swan event is imminent.

We are now at 3, which means that the chances of a Black Swan event has gone up since it was at 4 previously.

If we have an "event" around Iran, oil would shoot up.

[jarbo456]

few days old...but in case any of you missed it, this is a pretty strong article.

totally outside "Trading" per se, but staying informed, is staying informed...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/busin ... s&emc=tha3

[Al_Dente]

5 min
Vix bolinger compression
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[stucap]

Fitch just downgraded Spain, Belgium, Italy, Cyprus

i'm yawning...tephlon market.

[Al_Dente]

You put in sell stops and machines hit them....any questions?
I wonder how long it took between entry and rape
And they complained about how crooked trading floors were
AND then the smacked it the other way back up with two spikes...LOL.

swalsh
do program colors indicate buy sell??
eg does green yellow red mean buy/uptick or sell/downtick HFT
If not, what do colors mean?
TIA

[wayne0708]

cobra: triangle break down, soon ?

[stucap]

cobra: triangle break down, soon ?

it's trying to break up at the moment.....a few ticks away from BTFD again. i'm gonna be sick.

[Cobra]

hmm, still fighting. lunch time, will be back.

[Avitar]

Update:

gg.png

How do you determine the signal time? TIA

[waverider]

5 min
Vix bolinger compression
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

Yep, another way of Mr. Bollinger telling us it's in a trading range. They are useful for identifying extremes though.

UCO double bottom bull flags as naysayers say nay.

[johnnywa]

hmm, still fighting. lunch time, will be back.

Cobra,so if we dont break up you see us breaking down to 1305??

[fehro]

neckline in?... seems like one more push down to the red/thick purple? then all next week right shoulder?.. window dressing?