01/31/2012 Intraday Watering

[xglider]

AMZN big miss.

QQQ's are toast starting tomorrow...

[L_T]

AMZN big miss.

Ouch

[Cobra]

come on, guys, it's red!

[knock]

come on, guys, it's red!

nasdaq green?

[jarbo456]

AMZN big miss.

Ouch

it's ok - got into a slightly bearish biased strangle 190//200 @ 16.50.

see where we end up tomorrow, but should be good enough for 3-4k.

[Unique]

Sorry, didn't know the image is too big. That said I'm all in bear already...

[L_T]

AMZN big miss.

Ouch

it's ok - got into a slightly bearish biased strangle 190//200 @ 16.50.

see where we end up tomorrow, but should be good enough for 3-4k.

I meant ouch for AMZN. Someone mentioned they may take that position with AMZN. Good call.

Still holding short CRR? It's been good ever since they reported.

[soku]

AMZN big miss.

Ouch

damn, my options are dead. fortunately i sold some 195c today to limit my loss.

1 reminder. chinese data tonight. my rumor source saying it is beat

[TWT]

ES : For Globex watchers the set up is bearish if price unfolds one more impulsive down leg.

[jarbo456]

AMZN big miss.

Ouch

it's ok - got into a slightly bearish biased strangle 190//200 @ 16.50.

see where we end up tomorrow, but should be good enough for 3-4k.

I meant ouch for AMZN. Someone mentioned they may take that position with AMZN. Good call.

Still holding short CRR? It's been good ever since they reported.

yes, holding the CRR FEB 100 Puts and sold the CRR FEB 115 calls for a combined profit more than covering the losing leg of the CRR strangle.

[jarbo456]

AMZN big miss.

Ouch

damn, my options are dead. fortunately i sold some 195c today to limit my loss.

1 reminder. chinese data tonight. my rumor source saying it is beat

sorry to hear that - i know quite a few people who will be hurting come tomorrow morning on amzn calls.

i actually almost added more calls to my amzn strangle because some very smart people i spoke to had a very bullish stance on the numbers...

i had a pretty bearish strangle, which i moved down to make a little less bearish - wish i hadn't, but oh well.

i should've known there was a lot of bullish sentiment, and the market would dissapoint. i looked at the options internals on amzn, and there was a negative skew on the put open interest which led me to believe most people were bullish, and most were just buying OTM protection. there were several large call orders taken for 210 and 300 strikes, also started to make me think amzn would surprise to the upside.

[dcurban1]

Market looks weak.

Will good data from China or a Greek debt deal save the day tomorrow?

[SWalsh]

The chart below shows spikes up as declines were occurring. On all of these the one thing for sure was that it did not get there again soon. I could go back further and it's still the case that at the very best you might get near that low that day. In Elliott Wave terms, it's a hard wave to even count. That's why EW is broken often on shorter timeframes.

The ONLY thing that can make that happen so fast is a computer. And it's not necessarily buying volume, but rather quote stuffing to stop a decline, slow the system, and to try to get the slower algos to trade by the HFT machines hooked directly into the quote machines. I am unsure of the number of HFT machines but I was told it is not more than 12 and probably less than 10. It is a select group that includes the top six banks and a few others who met the government's criteria. And I'm sure Goldman Sachs had input.

Now, perhaps Al_Dente needs some more time to simmer as he tuned me out today... ...but I have done this for many years and this mkt is nothing like what traded from after WW II to 2008. So what I'm going to post below is something he might differ with. Many already agree. Compared to The Gulf of Tonkin and WMD the below conversation is child's play handled by a top aid so there is plausible deniability.

There is a law that no order can be placed without an expectation of being filled. Sure, a FOK for 10,000 contracts/shares was often seen in a trading pit. But up to 10,000 quotes a second? It is illegal and no one will prosecute it because they are in on it. The administration wants this mkt up and the nation would have great difficulty, or should I say will have great difficulty, if the bubble bursts. It is what it is. Hopefully it will change, but I fear an event that is not known will cause them to bury the mkt and then only a public outcry will remove them. Former head of the NYSE Richard Grasso has said to rip the machines (scavengers) out or at least act to curb their activities. He also sees that their short-term fix for the banks profit is destroying public confidence in the marketplace. This link at the DailyBaily covers it, but MSNBC has taken the video down even from its own website http://dailybail.com/home/former-nyse-c ... ing-t.html. We can't have the public hearing they are being stolen from because liquidity my ass. They add nothing PLUS they have an edge others don't. That's called a monopoly. Where's Jimmy Hoffa when you need him?

I feel it would be safe to operate under this assumption when trading as to a conversation like this taking place:

"We will allow you to do as you like in the market without fear of prosecution as long as you have an upward bias. You will have
unlimited funds should you need them. You may sell the mkt down in increments to put players in as shorts to then run it back up, but you
will always run it back up. You will not be found involved in any major selling that causes a collapse, for if you do so we will perp-walk you out of your office. You have a license to do as you please to the extent that it is not clearly seen to be illegal and must be acted upon, so cover your tracks and don't be pigs. If we call you with instructions you will follow them. If you lose money at that time we will reimburse you. This meeting never took place".

If you think that is off the wall then you have no idea what Wall Street is all about. They don't have lawyers being paid big bucks to watch over segregated funds. The best thing that ever happened to Wall Street was the widespread use, until now, of Settlement Agreements: "To close this matter, while not admitting guilt or claiming innocence, Party A agrees to pay a fine in the amount of 1/10th of 1% that it really stole". Okay, it doesn't read exactly that way, but they can't find $1.2 billion in segregated funds and I'm hearing the books are a mess. I had thought that was what forensic accountants are for.

[lqiantobe]

Corba~ do you think AMZN will open low close high tmr?

[SWalsh]

SPX: if the ZZ or DZZ is the correct pattern then this could be the s/t count

I'd be more inclined to go with the attached, although it gets us to the same place. Having a C wave extend 300% of wave A is rare, but the bigger issue is that B waves have a characteristic of being the most time consuming wave and it is miniscule on your chart as compared to the C wave in time. I don't believe there is an EW "expert", but I've looked long enough to say that short B waves usually get labeled differently as the mkt unfolds.

Also, to drop hard I think the starting point needs to be a failed 5th. If it's not then this is all part of IV and what has been almost a rule for some time is when you think you have that last wave in, another one comes to the party. Strange things happen these days, but a complex correction after a failed 5th is not, to speak in EW terms, logical as the failed 5th meant selling and an urgency to drop and a shove from the shorts. But who am I to argue if it did it.

If this is right we would need to open slightly higher and start dropping quickly.