Well written, although I am unsure that the powers you speak of have truly solved anything otherwise Greece would have been resolved over a year ago. Frankly, they just have cheap paper that has to part somewhere. I think muddle along has been the approach and from an equity perspective it has worked. Before we high five each other by are equity gains we should consider how they have performed in terms of other instruments such as precious metals. Just looking at stockcharts since 1994 a 42% haircut on SPY since 2000 an 86% haircut and even since the lows of March 2009 a 17% haircut. Of course since huge chunks of my money is in metals I may be looking at things wrong.
In the end, I am unsure that radical debasement of currency will not lead to the next disaster. Yes, I took a small position in TVIX yesterday and escaped with a minor flesh wound.
Wasn't the TVIX windfall from August the result of the European banking system doodoo almost hitting the fan? Haven't they been working feverishly to eliminate risk of such a recurrence? Therefore, another TVIX windfall is a bet that the European financial power's actions are ineffective in the short term? It seems to me that they can not avert long term systemic change, but the immediacy of the problem seems to have been averted months ago. TVIX is a flash position compared to the time frame of years these systemic issues will need to play out, and they seem to have the short term tools they need.
How much emphasis can you place on TA with paradigm shifts occurring beneath it? Isn't relying on bear technical indications that have worked *hitherto* like a bet against the entire world financial powers-that-be who have a bullish agenda?
My observations thus far have been, at least on the short and intermediate term, that it is the value of the US dollar that is the tail wagging the dog. Therefore, it's FX first and TA second.
How the currency forces align I can only guess, but it seems to me that the Euro is repressed right now while the FED/GOP intends to equalise local asset (house) prices by bringing the USD down to meet their bank book values. Also Europe is leaning more towards currency stabilising austerity rather than the US's currency destabilising stimulous. Would these opposite directions not support the rise of the EUR and the fall of the USD. Wouldn't a fall in USDs cause equities to rise? Isn't that the shifting paradigm that is confusing all this TA?[/quote]
Thanks and welcome aboard!

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