02/09/2012 Intraday Watering

[fehro]

TVIX on the upper channel...

[Roadrunner]

one of the best days on this board today. Thanks to all..

Cobra: could you take a look at moneyflow in your discussion tonight?

[BullTart]

TVIX on the upper channel...

Heading to the upper BB band around 25, which is step 1 in my evil plan for it.

[wayne0708]

the very first day for long long time I can remember we finally MAY close on a weak note.

Cobra: Thanks for the warning. I MAY (2011?) load more shorts tomorrow, yes?

[Cobra]

the very first day for long long time I can remember we finally MAY close on a weak note.

Cobra: Thanks for the warning. I MAY (2011?) load more shorts tomorrow, yes?

absolutely no average down as you said 2011.

[Cobra]

one of the best days on this board today. Thanks to all..

Cobra: could you take a look at moneyflow in your discussion tonight?

only if I see something astonishing.

[Al_Dente]

SB73
Is shiteload the same as a lotta bunches?
Good
WDIK
I’m not allowed to sleep with her overnight yet
(my rules suck but u kno how that goes….. when in doubt refer to rule #1 do not break these rules)

[Al_Dente]

one of the best days on this board today. Thanks to all..
Cobra: could you take a look at moneyflow in your discussion tonight?

road
if u would post more, board would be even better

[EvilTrader]

Right here, a new cobra subscriber.

Hope to make some bucks.

[SWalsh]

TVIX blasting off... now up 8% even if stock are also up.

Some nasty is lurking right around the corner...

Maintain TVIX evil plan.... crocodile style.

Is that a 3x fund? How could it have gone from 109 to 13? (aside from gravity that SPX is immune to)

[TWT]

TVIX (2 x long VIX) has a bullish island reversal

[wayne0708]

TVIX (2 x long VIX) has a bullish island reversal

Nice chart so what is your target?

[taggard]

it's the end of the wedge now. could be interesting tomorrow. the next week seasonality is very bearish (i know nobody wants to believe this anymore).

next week is also options exp--and readers may want to gander at the over all put vs call positions in various strikes as well as various strikes total options positions--one way to get a rule of thumb feel is to add the puts in the densest strikes (eg the most contracts) and quickly compare to the calls with the same 5 strikes added--the qqq is very put heavy and at lower prices then we are at.

this may not mean a thing--but it's interesting. as is the aapl daily bar.

[Wallstreetrader]

Cya Tomorrow, share an idea

[Al_Dente]

it's the end of the wedge now. could be interesting tomorrow. the next week seasonality is very bearish (i know nobody wants to believe this anymore).

next week is also options exp--and readers may want to gander at the over all put vs call positions in various strikes as well as various strikes total options positions--one way to get a rule of thumb feel is to add the puts in the densest strikes (eg the most contracts) and quickly compare to the calls with the same 5 strikes added--the qqq is very put heavy and at lower prices then we are at.
this may not mean a thing--but it's interesting. as is the aapl daily bar.

TAG could u just do the math and report back?
U kno, do our heavy lifting 4 us
Thx in advance

[Cobra]

...

Please stop mocking people. I really don't have time for this. Thanks for your cooperation.

[taggard]

it's the end of the wedge now. could be interesting tomorrow. the next week seasonality is very bearish (i know nobody wants to believe this anymore).

next week is also options exp--and readers may want to gander at the over all put vs call positions in various strikes as well as various strikes total options positions--one way to get a rule of thumb feel is to add the puts in the densest strikes (eg the most contracts) and quickly compare to the calls with the same 5 strikes added--the qqq is very put heavy and at lower prices then we are at.
this may not mean a thing--but it's interesting. as is the aapl daily bar.

TAG could u just do the math and report back?
U kno, do our heavy lifting 4 us
Thx in advance

ok al--the reason i did it this way was to get people to look--the trick is your mind can see the skew very quickly if you sort of relax and look at it with the sides of your eye rather than the center--so context (wide scan) vs content (narrow scan) interesting take here in this gem of a finding on dyslexia. (i just cut a tiny part the other shows how dyslexics can find patterns faster in data despite the fact that they are far worse at reading logical abstractions (so letters words numbers and various relations between them)

Mr. Geiger and Mr. Lettvin’s findings, which have been confirmed in several subsequent studies, provide a striking demonstration of the fact that the brain separately processes information that streams from the central and the peripheral areas of the visual field. Moreover, these capacities appear to trade off: if you’re adept at focusing on details located in the center of the visual field, which is key to reading, you’re likely to be less proficient at recognizing features and patterns in the broad regions of the periphery. The opposite is also the case. People with dyslexia, who have a bias in favor of the visual periphery, can rapidly take in a scene as a whole — what researchers call absorbing the “visual gist.”

when cobra refers to "look at a lot of charts and you sort of get the idea" this is the sort of info processing and anatomical issues he refers to--so the idea again is we all have our preference (center of eye exact on the idea or edge of eye the relational issues in a content/context mix) inverting these will provide interesting results. (esp in fighting or dating) this can be used to great effect in trading just as narrow focus which is so popular on this thread is. so looking at the put calls allows this process to happen--as well as not spending time with a calculator--never the less here we go. (next time you watch some fighting without huge holds or floor--watch the area inbetween the fighters change--this works as on other things too--by watching neither as the primary focal point you see both at the same time in relation.)

thank you Al for allowing that brief digression--using qqq puts strike 56 to 60 total 690 k in open interest. 56 to 60 calls 80k so we are talking 8.6 x more puts than calls--this is what has been supporting the market in part. before i get flamed i understand that the put call data is complex due to not understanding exactly what the "real" outcome is. to these flames i will say for 15 years overall that has not invalidated this sort of stuff. Huge skews in size of positions one way or another indicate at the very least hedging which was logical enough to most people going into jan because "we had to pull back and feb is often a bad month".

so in general when we find we are over the majority of options out there--it's going to mean "the existing strikes are holding us up". that is people were forced to adjust positions as we skyrocketed though their strikes and now the larger number of (lets just say puts in this case) are below us. in short the technical phrase is "dude i like bailed because my stuff was dust and i figured best case i didn't need the hedge because now i had slack in my stock position."

i am not going to make any absolute call on this--what's worth noting is how out of whack the puts are to calls. and that we are over them. if you put a gun to my head--i would say this type of stuff had a serious effect since volume overall in the markets is not amazing. covering puts means in effect buying--and having the puts means a lot of cover since many of these are hedges on longs (thought process is "dude we go down in feb but they so totally blow it up into the end of the quarter"--not original but often the case in the middle of the first quarter for the larger players).

what i would suggest is that this should make you slightly wonder about the period next wed (prior to exp which means most people have tweaked their weekend positions) and the following week (obviously the febs will not be an issue).

so a quick trip to the marches (so far out in the distant future as to be beyond understanding to mere mortals) there we find much smaller numbers (not going to add them up but ball park worst case about 1.5/2 to 1 puts. indicating that we must beyond a shadow of a doubt go up into the third week in march from the epic current low. . .er wait a minute?

i am sorry not to be more absolute (best to drink it don't believe in it) but for the last couple of weeks i have been sort of amazed by the puts vs call.

also re the aapl bar--if i could have anything it would be a break over 500 to say 505-509 that then fails prior to a second attempt. (and yes if you are looking at aapl febs 5 strikes near at the money--then they are far more equal (people are bullish on the stock) than anything else. thus a move over 500 (false break) that is at least "stuck to" 500 during options week would be interesting.

hope your life is going well--again sorry not to be more exact.

[taggard]

continued lack of clarity (no extra charge)

i did not fill in why the lack of absolute juice in the options stuff. ok today is thursday prior to exp and the put guys were trashed for the last two weeks going in. so my problem is had this happened closer or inside exp week--one mite be more speculative re the end of that week or the following. what's bugging me is they got clocked the last two weeks and i have to wonder how many people have "resolved"(written off the losses) on their puts.

the more they are out of these puts the more danger of selling (eg no hedges) there is in theory--the more they are still in them the more likely that "barring any strong action" we would drift or stay up.

bottom line this simple observation has now taken on a life of it's own--sorry al.

[thanos]

...

Please stop mocking people. I really don't have time for this. Thanks for your cooperation.

Alright alright, i'll stop although SWalsh and TraderGirl started it with their "Troll Alert" comment. You put up with alot on this forum as it is, especially some ridiciously commentary about trading using planets! LOL Come on Cobra I know you chuckled at that one too. But I promise I will not start a fight on this forum any longer.

have a great day all!

Stay long and strong.

[rpccharts]

TVIX last check under Reg SHO-TVIX had 2 naked short shares for each outstanding-
MAJOR OVERSOLD SHORT SQUEEZE ALERT VXX