02/16/2012 Intraday Watering

[Denali92]

SPX: It looks like that we only get fake reversal patterns for the time being ....

Below 2 new ideas of the topping process of the up leg off the Dec 19 low

(thewavetrading.com)

Thanks for all of those ideas! Your perspective is valuable!

We seem to now be in one of those positive feedback loops where everyone is now looking at the same thing and expecting the same thing and so it just does not happen....

We have set new extremes on all fronts, but it will not matter now until there is a shock event post opex or some time in March.... At least we will have this period to reference after the next set of crises and the next period of unlimited cheap money.....

I continue to be amazed - the SPX behaved somewhat normally in January while the RUT, MID and NAS did not..... now in Feb, the RUT is behaving somewhat normally, but the SPX, MID and NAS are not - talk about rotation!

THANKS!

-D

[Denali92]

Opex is ever surprising - especially the narrowness of the range - this is the 4th narrowest range (so far) since the start of 2007....

Before highlighting what pops out at me - here is the the previous weeks, the range and the outcome:

Jan 07 11.5 SPX pts - Minor bottom Monday after

Sep 10 12.3 SPX pts - Minor top Tuesday after post FOMC

Dec 10 14.8 SPX pts - Minor Low Thursday's open

Feb 12 17 SPX pts so far

Jan 10 19.4 pts - Major Top - Tuesday after post holiday

Feb 11 23.7 pts Friday's close was a Major Top


The last two are the most interesting to me as they had a holiday at the end of opex - it may be nothing - but it did jump out at me when I did the data sort..... I have not seen much in this opex data, but there are a lot of similarities to both of those weeks as the low of the week was made on the Tuesday - we had very similar extended weekly and daily stochastics coming in to the week....

Jan 2010 is in some ways particularly notable as it was a real trading range week similar to this week (so far) where we tested the highs (Mon and Thurs) and lows of the week twice (Tues and Fri)

It could be nothing - as I have posted before - I am struggling to come to grips with the data in this rally as it is setting some new standards for extremes on many fronts..... it did nail the post FOMC pullback, but there is not a lot else.... I am particularly amazed that the hourly stochastics (let alone RSI or MFI) have not been below 20 on the midcaps since Dec 28th.... definitely far exceeding anything we have seen since March 2009) Though I must say that the SPX has behaved far more normally than MID and NAS100 - which are off the charts in terms of their behaviour.

The data is all calling for a top - but everyone else is also calling for a top or a pullback of some sort.... which I am not sure was the case in Jan 2010 or Feb 2011.....

Still, all in all, Tuesday (or possibly Friday) should still be a turning point......

-D

[TWT]

EURUSD: completed a Double ZZ now a wave (B) rebound ?

(thewavetrading.com)

[Cobra]

channel top, bears hope are gone, should be more up, the push up is strong.

[Al_Dente]

Yes, nyadv confirmed all spy highs today

Sheesh, anybody left to cover?
By my count there should be +/- about 10billion shares still short and available to cover
not a joke
Anyone have a more accurate count of total short interest?

[BullBear52x]

Always sell double top not working so good this time, well, before close I am cover this hard core position tomorrow is another day. I still think inrtraday bear have a chance of not getting too much scratches if not making any money today.

[KENA]

Here is a low priced stock" NQ " that has just about pulled back off of hi's to near support and the Stoh's are saying lets go up.If the mkt turns dn this will go with it.Look at your charts.In this mkt, this is for big balls trading.Lets see.

[proteus46]

I think SPY 137.00 to 137.25 is the best buy point for bears (TVIX /TZA). That was the May 2011 high.

[KENA]

Here is a low priced stock" NQ " that has just about pulled back off of hi's to near support and the Stoh's are saying lets go up.If the mkt turns dn this will go with it.Look at your charts.In this mkt, this is for big balls trading.Lets see.

PS>>I have not bought as yet.

[Cobra]

guys, don't fight, this bull hasn't touched the EMA20 for more than 2 hours, strong, so the very first pullback to EMA20 is buy.

[lcgllc]

new highs in the SPY without the girls who got 'em there...AAPL and XLF...futures driven, wont last....short it! ALGO/EXPIRY nonsense

[uempel]

Yes, nyadv confirmed all spy highs today

Sheesh, anybody left to cover?
By my count there should be +/- about 10billion shares still short and available to cover
not a joke
Anyone have a more accurate count of total short interest?

Hi Al, checking your intraday 1 minute... Still very appreciated

[BullBear52x]

Gold bugs doesn't enjoy this rally so much, today SLV triggered sell, new lower low today. Good economy dollar should be up which in turns stall GLD/SL, Euro unrest created stronger dollar also stall GLD/SLV no good out come either ways.

[sachsun]

Five Consecutive hourly bar on SPY. Exhaustion or Reversal?

[Al_Dente]

Uempel where u been?
Really missed yr ellipses

PAGING SENOR
Take little profit earlier today !!
To repeat: “u smart dood”

FWIW one little sell bot, and TNX coming in just a trifle…. as if SPY cared….
Cant fight nyadv >2200

[waverider]

The DOW hasn't broken last Thursdays high

[TraderGirl]

I sent this chart out last week, price levels not correct but direction and timing is. Top may happen around Feb 22/23, bottom around Feb 28/29. The question is how far we rally and to what date after the 28/29th. I thought it could be into the March 12/13, but could be only until March 5/9, I will know more later in the month...

[uempel]

guys, don't fight, this bull hasn't touched the EMA20 for more than 2 hours, strong, so the very first pullback to EMA20 is buy.

We saw the signal yesterday and the BPs did not look weak last night. My only concern now is momentum, which is clearly deteriorating.

As to my participation here - I cannot join you guys yet as the new house we are moving into is not yet "operational". I'm busy with mundane tasks such as buying a new fridge and checking on the guys who are doing the paintwork (by the way, they are doing a great job). So I can't focus on the market, I just look at the screen from time to time... I guess things will be ok end of February

PS: just to make everybody envious - we'll have fiberoptics in the new house

[BullBear52x]

The DOW hasn't broken last Thursdays high

DOW theory is bearish, see UTIL and TRAN, I think we need to look into this more on the weekend.

[BullTart]

TVIX chomp chomp time is here... 2500 @ 18 to see how good this meal is.