LONG WEEKEND WATERING 2/18/12

[Al_Dente]

THE DOW THEORY: Dow and Tran have been diverging since 2/3/12… We have been on a Dow Theory sell signal since 2/3/12.
The previous Dow Theory signal was bull on 12/23/10.
I posted non-confirmation charts last week; SPY just shook her head and laughed at me.

Here are a few Relative Strength Ratios, showing a weak link in the ratio of OEX to SPX, which means that the large-cap
hot 100 stocks (OEX) are slipping vs the broad based SPX-500 stocks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ ... =257948940

Somebody somewhere mentioned that VIX options were at ALL TIME HIGH OPEN INTEREST yesterday/Friday.
Could someone please speak to what this means for us? (A long explanation would be great for the weekend). Thanks in advance.

Here are same old/same old indices, but all in histogram form; just gives u a diff visual that’s all.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =258022221

and for the auditories: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGfVOdTiUEc

[trendfollower]

Article still has some good points for S&P 500:

http://goo.gl/gt5Xx

[Cobra]

I don't read this chart bullish: Every time VIX call spiked then dropped it's top.

[The Hook]

can u post liquidity chart cobra?

[Petsamo]

Here are a few Relative Strength Ratios, showing a weak link in the ratio of OEX to SPX, which means that the large-cap hot 100 stocks (OEX) are slipping vs the broad based SPX-500 stocks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ ... =257948940

Here's something less eye-straining:



The formula is SPY / IWM x 58.
The time is 4/1/11 to present.
High numbers mean SPY is strong relative to IWM.
Big question: Is SPY gonna climb, or will it resume its decline?

[Cobra]

can u post liquidity chart cobra?

don't read much, the liquidity chart only reflects what is happening. it has no predictive power because once the market dropped sharply, you'd see the liquidity drops sharply too. It strictly follows the price therefore I really suspect this is not a real liquidity chart, instead it's simply calculated based on the index price.

The only thing interesting is institutions are selling. But again, I now suspect it's calculated simply from the index price therefore has no special predictive power. The only way I use it is the divergence such as now it shows institutions are selling but the problem is you never can time the divergence therefore you can not use it as your trading signals.

[thanos]

Article still has some good points for S&P 500:

http://goo.gl/gt5Xx

Another EW person another different count. Man the trading world is full of these people and some even have the gull to charge money for their made up counts!

[SWalsh]

For those who look at T-Theory (search Terry Laundry for an explanation) this chart is rather interesting going back to 2000:

[SWalsh]

Article still has some good points for S&P 500:

http://goo.gl/gt5Xx

Thanks for posting that. Contrary to the troll who thinks the world is flat, there are mathematical relationships. The problem at this time is that the shorter timeframes are being decimated by HFT. Even the guy who speaks to NANEX and managed $250 million at one point has stated some of these moves are absurd and computer driven.

[Pagat]

As you can see on the picture (DIA), latest short squeeze isn't produced a lift, as we might expect
so, might be, that lift is a little bit late or we will see a pullback
So, i expect that DIA penetrates through Bollinger Band upper limit on tuesday and wednesday - that will be bullish
any pullback will be berish for a while

[BullBear52x]

Are we there yet? this is one bullish looking chart.

a break down below below 135.61 before bears can see that there will be a game changer.

SLV is not so healthy now.

someone sneaking out the back door on AAPL?

[TWT]

SPX: My "road map". Hopefully next week price will finally trigger the kick off of the OVERDUE CORRECTION with an eod print below 1342.22

(thewavetrading.com)

[TWT]

NDX EWP may be suggesting that we could see much higher prices in 2012

I am "working" with a potential TZZ from the 2002 lows

Above the current price there is no major resistance until price reaches the range 2811-2897

Also keep in mind that during 2008-2010 price has shaped an Inverted H&S whose target is 20% above current levels.

Potential targets for the wave (Z):

- Fibo. Retraments range = 2811-3286
- Inverted H&S target = 3106

(thewavetrading.com)

[btran874]

SPX: My "road map". Hopefully next week price will finally trigger the kick off of the OVERDUE CORRECTION with an eod print below 1342.22

(thewavetrading.com)

Hehe, looks like we're on the same page. Don't ya just love elliot waves? According to EWP, the chance we're going below 1300, as of now I will leave it at 0.01% but never say never I guess.

[Petsamo]

Nasdaq futures are +14 at this time, 15 minutes before the Nikkei opens. Things could reverse and be negative by the Tuesday open ???

[btran874]

Nasdaq futures are +14 at this time, 15 minutes before the Nikkei opens. Things could reverse and be negative by the Tuesday open ???

Let's hope not because I have been waiting since December 19th for this opportunity to short. Even if I dream and pray for many months I don't think I can even come across a more beautiful short setup than this.

[TWT]

GOLD : A potential count

(thewavetrading.com)

[BullBear52x]

GOLD : A potential count

(thewavetrading.com)

Nice TWT, I am short term bearish on gold 165.64 need to support, here is my GLD bull chart pattern.

[Auole]

Re: COMP, SPX, ZB and GOLD.
Bottom line here in these charts, 5 yr weekly, is that we are NOT yet in market top.
Only in the Nasdaq the RSI is just barely into oversold territory.
Slow Sto @ 96 has not yet turned down. Same for Market Forecaster.
Historical Volatility in middle land.
Nasdaq COMP has been the strongest bull and MAY turn first, but
historically ZB (2 out of 3) started to rise (price) first. ZB is really in
middle land (all 4 indicators) at this time. Do not know why we would so
want to prod and goad Iran except to distract our attention from ???
Red (sell/top) time lines mostly apply to overbot RSI. Noted are a few green (buys).

[Auole]

The comparison line chart of these indexes +VIX is to point out that the
rise in ZB at market tops is nothing grandiose initially. See orange over
red (Sell/Tops) time lines. I do indeed, as many here do, have my ears finely
tuned into VIX and there is a good RSI buy (TVIX) signal going on there.

Gold. 11 day hourly chart. Amazing how the Fib retracements and Fans
have worked well here. My best guess for tomorrow is at most/best Sto
showing down/weak overnight. Let's see, Geese are now again flying north
and if these markets keep up their slow grind up so should gold. Would
REALLY Love to hear others' take, feedback, input, critical or perceptive
eye on this.

p.s. TOS does not have good chart on Baltic Dry Index. "The index indirectly measures
global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such
as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains. Because dry bulk primarily consists
of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate
or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen
as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production."
A propos to the Shipping Index - IS 23-24 Mentions "merchants, traders,
buyers and sellers." Wail O ships of Tarshish.