02/23/2012 Intraday Watering

[sachsun]

15 min charts in AAPL shows Bollinger Band Squeeze. Which way AAPL go?

[Richarab]

15 min charts in AAPL shows Bollinger Band Squeeze. Which way AAPL go?

nasdaq needs to drop some for bear to have hope. its kind of flat droopy now

[jimme]

AAPL a higher high this AM...

[Cobra]

if you still remember the evil plan I hatched last night, it's key time.

[soku]

update on dow theory. somebody posted a research paper on dow theory the other day. in short it says dj industrial and transportation need to confirm each other. we are in one of the largest (be conservative) divergence at this moment. djia is going higher and trans going lower since the beginning of this month.
where we stand? djia is at some historical high area. trans closed lower and is below 50 dma.
why will this happen? i am seeking answer too. in general this rally is not a typical one that i want to participate. the euro crisis broke lots of correlation. the market is getting low degree of

[Harapa]

I know that this board is more interested in day trading but I think knowing long term trend could be very useful even for day trading. I share with you charts showing NYSE_TRIN as predictor of SP500 performance. As we all know TRIN is quiet noisy at any interval. Here, I use 100 period something (2nd panel in yellow is simple, 3rd panel purple is exponential and bottom panel cyan is weighted versions of this smoothing ) to reduce this noise. I use trend lines on the smoothed data to guestimate to make generate a buy or sell signal. A cross from above of a trend line is a Buy (vertical green line) and cross from below is a sell (vertical red line). Since despite this smoothing TRIN derived lines are at best squiggly, the strength/reliability of the signal is based on the strength of trend line.Transformation shown in 2nd panel (yellow) shows a bottom in Jan 2011 and steady rise till Dec 2011. During this period a number of signals were given. Look at the outcomes to decide the worth of these by yourself.

Coming to the present, notice that this system is in Buy mode since Dec 2011 and TRIN is not only below a number of trend lines (for last upswing period) but is nearing what I consider the strongest of the trend lines since Jan 2011.
While we all are awaiting for a market top and subsequent drop, this indicator,IMHO, offers no support for this outcome. What do you think?

Back testing of this system since 1965 shows a return of 6.6x B&H (97% max gain & 9% maximum loss on a given trade, 76% win rate using S&P500 Index (without dividend and trading costs) as a bench mark).

As a disclaimer, this is not an advice to buy or sell and this information should be considered nothing more than just information.

[HappyFriday]

AAPL a higher high this AM...

No way la, we are 300% short AAPL !
DAX is down almost 2% this morning.

[EvilTrader]

I am at core a Bear at this levels, but this volatility is useful to a small scalp trading up and down, rising the average core short price.

Then you can have enough space to wait for a greater correction without pain.

[KENA]

update on dow theory. somebody posted a research paper on dow theory the other day. in short it says dj industrial and transportation need to confirm each other. we are in one of the largest (be conservative) divergence at this moment. djia is going higher and trans going lower since the beginning of this month.
where we stand? djia is at some historical high area. trans closed lower and is below 50 dma.
why will this happen? i am seeking answer too. in general this rally is not a typical one that i want to participate. the euro crisis broke lots of correlation. the market is getting low degree of

SOKU..Right now we have hi liquidity in the mkt..Big Ben keeps the mkt makers supplied with $.They don't want the mkt to fall..There is a limit to hi liquidy and soon they will not get good results for the buck,they have to keep putting in more and more for the same results.In time we will have bigger and harder correction.Anyway this is what I have been reading.Thanks for the info on the DOW above.Thays good to know.

[Al_Dente]

1min
Check dollar, not on this chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[Richarab]

is that it for the bears? my oh my that was short lived

[Cobra]

also key time here, whether it's a valid breakout.

[lynn]

Cobra,

Why silver is so strong today given there is no easing comments from fed official? Is SLV looking bullish to you on chart? Thanks....

[soku]

I know that this board is more interested in day trading but I think knowing long term trend could be very useful even for day trading. I share with you charts showing NYSE_TRIN as predictor of SP500 performance. As we all know TRIN is quiet noisy at any interval. Here, I use 100 period something (2nd panel in yellow is simple, 3rd panel purple is exponential and bottom panel cyan is weighted versions of this smoothing ) to reduce this noise. I use trend lines on the smoothed data to guestimate to make generate a buy or sell signal. A cross from above of a trend line is a Buy (vertical green line) and cross from below is a sell (vertical red line). Since despite this smoothing TRIN derived lines are at best squiggly, the strength/reliability of the signal is based on the strength of trend line.Transformation shown in 2nd panel (yellow) shows a bottom in Jan 2011 and steady rise till Dec 2011. During this period a number of signals were given. Look at the outcomes to decide the worth of these by yourself.

nice work. i will check in detail. in general, trin is getting noisy in recent years because the etf trading. there are lots of ways to filter it. using nyse and long period of ma could be one. more people are using accumulated tick.

[Cobra]

well, at least this is not H&S top (as discussed last night) case because the rebound is above the neckline to much.

[Richarab]

going long. but dont follow me... this week i have been the anti-indicator.... what a see-saw...

[bbc]

well, at least this is not H&S top (as discussed last night) case because the rebound is above the neckline to much.

hope it's in down trend, I bought 6 VIX H2 @ 21.70, and four more bullish spread.

[Cobra]

mini rebound target, I guess.

[TWT]

EURUSD: The triangle thrust needs should one more impulsive up leg in order to complete wave (C) of (Z)

(thewavetrading.com)

[Richarab]

pump and dump NG just dumped