02/24/2012 Intraday Watering

[TraderGirl]

Have a great day guys!! Goin' on vacation, see you soon!! Thanks Cobra for all of your insight and knowledge, it's been a pleasure....

[Cobra]

key time. any time revisit the previous high.

[Cobra]

also don't forget the target.

[jimme]

Full short BAC. Carry on and good luck to all. Again thanks for all the extremely helpful charts and really useful information. It is an incredible place. jimme

[hiram]

LT im looking to buy 1390 spy puts at the touch of cobras measured move target as i typre they are selling for 1.96 i like stuff at 2.00 range and today bid ask spread is tight which for a friday is rare.... now i will also buy puts if reversal happens before target.....


hiram

also don't forget the target.

[btran874]

I rarely watch the news but the numbers this morning are good I assume? This is very important if we will go high and close at the high or not. If these numbers are bad we could be range bound or worst go down.

[knurbs]

Cobra- Are we expecting a 2nd leg up?

[Al_Dente]

1min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

Thanks hiram, GL 2 u

[Petsamo]

USO retreating

[SWalsh]

Below is the commentary regarding HFT/Algo activity for yesterday's mkt action. The service posts some updates during the day if anything of note is happening, as well as a nightly wrap-up. Privately, we have discussed numerous times in the last few months how quite often, the manipulation taking place is both absurd as well as criminal. It's clear that the algos act in unison. Whether that be throughout design (safety in numbers) or collusion is unknown. As to the HFTs acting in collusion, it would be foolish to believe otherwise. It is what it is, and it is not good with their ability to individually place 10,000+ quotes per second as well as effectively shut the mkt down via massive activity as they did on August 9th as many trading platforms down. (see my post last night about the theft of software from GS where that individual was convicted and jailed as stealing how they do it was possibly considered espionage)

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CLOSING READ FEB 23: I really expected that this down cycle on the Primary would get some legs because the Secondary was firmly down at the close yesterday. The fact that the lows this am held on only weakly negative signal weight that then turned into strongly positive signal weight is an indication to me that we continue to have more upside potential than downside risk.

Signal weight closed very strongly positive.

Complicating the situation is the fact that when the Primary turns back up on itself, as it has done today, that cycle is typically very short. We've seen this several times over the past month. I have seen blowoff tops and bottoms occur after such cycles but I do not really think that we're in for that here or at least (not) yet. The trend in signal weight is just too strong--lows early in the day followed by a stronger recovery in signal weight: the same pattern that we have seen for the past 2 months. We also saw a rather large increase in algo buy activity today, this is quite bullish.

As I mentioned at the 10:08 update, I exited my position and from a trading point of view, I am flat. My longer term portfolio positions remain and I am very tempted to buy back into X and GOOG and a few others that I sold starting on Feb 3rd. All of these positions are lower today than on the 3-6th whereas SPY is higher.

It is very possible we will see the Secondary flip up tomorrow and the Primary move higher as well. It seems that the only way this market can go lower is from exogenous events. Over the past few months, anytime the market has gone lower because of some Greek reason, it was an opportunity; it still is. It seems that it will take something from left field to change the trend in signal weight, otherwise the pattern of the last several weeks in signal weight will continue. This is a good thing for portfolios and makes trading shorter term moves less easy mainly due to the compressed ranges.

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The above would be a good explanation why a young man I know at a trading firm has told me their models that used to work (they do not use algos) are being destroyed to the point where they believe all short-term traders are having their systems specifically targeted. I know someone who has used DeMark's Market Profile, which he told me many mutual funds do for some short-term trading, and it cannot be a coincidence that in the next bar or two after a trading signal the mkt moves violently in the other direction.

An axiom of any business is generally that he who has the most money wins. They have a financial edge as well as the ability to buy influence as needed.

[TWT]

SPX : potential double top ........ i guess it is once again wishful thinking

[jimme]

SPX : potential double top ........ i guess it is once again wishful thinking

It's like the lottery. Can't win if you don't play. jimme

[waverider]

USO retreating

high gas prices are bad for Obama, don't expect oil to keep ripping short term.

Is the VIX double bottoming? Bottom of the BB on the daily

[proteus46]

USO retreating

I think USO will gap up again Monday morning, so I'm not holding SCO over the weekend.

[Major]

LT im looking to buy 1390 spy puts at the touch of cobras measured move target as i typre they are selling for 1.96 i like stuff at 2.00 range and today bid ask spread is tight which for a friday is rare.... now i will also buy puts if reversal happens before target.....


hiram

also don't forget the target.

Based on your statement that the puts are selling for 1.96, I assume you are looking at the Feb 24 139P. It seems to me that your are not giving yourself any wiggle room because you have to be out by the end of the day and have to cover $0.05 just to break even not considering commissions and fees.

Would it not be more logical to buy the Mar 04 139P? The spread is about the same but you are giving yourself a bit of room if SPY does not get closer to the 139 strike until early next week.

[1der]

SWalsh:

Your various posts re: the monitoring and insight into what traders are doing is something I have sensed for many years now.

With the advent of on-line/real-time trading, the "house" knows exactly what cards I am holding, what I am contemplating (cued up trade but not yet entered), and with enough time they will know my trading patterns/strengths/weaknesses. I believe it would take very little effort to aggregate all that info from across all their traders, into a meaningful tool for ease of manipulation.

It Is rigged, I know that and trade accordingly.

[jarbo456]

USO retreating

/CL (crude oil futures) - topped right at the retest of the 2/09 - 8/11 up trend line. it was an up trend that was in place for 2/5 years, before being broke last august. once broken, /CL dropped quickly to 80, flagged, made a slightly lower low, and then has been attracted to that failed trend line since november, where the first test happened. this is the second "retest"...it's a sell here, and then a buy again probably back down towards 95-100.

i'm typing this all out, but realized i'll let ya'll just take a look at the chart.

[hiram]

good morning,

i always play front week, for me intra day only, no intrest in holding over night much less in most cases more than 30mins unless i get a full ride from on end of bollinger to the other 1st gut check the 5 then the 10 then if i get a break of the 20 i am in most cases good for gap to extreme of median.... this is why cobra and brooks have been so good to me they help refine entry by being disciplined enough to wait for confirmation which has in estimation increased my win rate by approx 10%.

[hiram]

morning,

double tops, evil plans, thats the stuff i think about as i look out the window some may call me a ......... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w1g-idt-8U


hiram

[wayne0708]

Cobra:

Price spikes on TVIX, VIX is on plus side. SPY got new high today but not SPX. Any indication?