02/24/2012 Intraday Watering

[Petsamo]

USO retreating

I think USO will gap up again Monday morning, so I'm not holding SCO over the weekend.

Sounds good

[victorm]

USO retreating

high gas prices are bad for Obama, don't expect oil to keep ripping short term.

Is the VIX double bottoming? Bottom of the BB on the daily

Hi all.
We should keep in mind that rising oil prices presents new headache for the Europe, after 130$ some actions should follow. I think 140$ price would possess a great danger for their attempted “recovery”.

[TWT]

EURUSD: Adjusting the potential count to this buying spree

(thewavetrading.com)

[jarbo456]

USO retreating

I think USO will gap up again Monday morning, so I'm not holding SCO over the weekend.

what's your prediction based on? /CL is looking strong, but at a major resistance level. USO is also 13+% stretched above it's 200MA, and showing overbought on the RSI. i think there will be some kind of pullback here. i'm short from today's open.

[Me XMan]

WE...CANNOT...HAVE...MARKET...IN...RED...

[SigmaEcho]

market is dead.
need a new flashcrash to get things started again.

[Cobra]

bulls need a H2 the next bar to start rebound.

[waverider]

Sounds good[/quote]

lol...

[Mr. BachNut]

Still holding intermediate short position.
Still trapped.
Stop is still a ways away.
Setup signal (McClellan Summation Index and McClellan Oscillator) still intact for short.
Bottom line is trade is losing ground but going nowhere fast.
Plan to hold unless stop gets hit or summation index rises for a few days.

[SB73]

Update from yesterday

Metals generally have good chart set ups, but are at a crossroads. I like the miners over the metals, although Silver has been a terrific play this week. Update - Reasonable buy setup on GDX, but may have another day of selling.

Commodities have reasonable set ups, but waiting for more breakouts on some of the ones I follow. UNG has this innate ability to lose 3% in 30 seconds and then grind higher the rest of the day. I have bought the last couple of dips and although I am currently green, I don't like the stability. Will hold as long as the 5/10 EMA's cooperate with a positive MACD. Update - Short leash on UNG...what a dog. Nothing has triggered.

Equities probably need to make one more push to the top of the BB which is currently at 1375 on SPX. Maybe we get a nice gap and trap in the next day or two. BTFD still seems to be working, but overall the set up for big money on equities is currently not available IMO. Update - Still believe this is possible. Would like to see a pop then sell off.

TVIX - I must mention my girlfriend that I have avoided like the plague since last Friday. TVIX will make another powerful move soon, but I don't see it in the 16's, but rather the 15's or even high 14's. Maybe it will coincide with the gap and trap. Update - Entered small position at 15.75. Unfortunately, I think the 14's is more likely for any kind of add.

Finally, this has been a difficult week to get traction on profits and I have likely overtraded. Cobra, I notice that the impulse system is only sitting on 2 losses both SDS . Wow if those were eliminated it would be a banner year.

[waverider]

TVIX is trading at almost an all time high premium, wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.

[L_T]

Very interesting thanks. I would love to know what you think of the book once you make it through the whole thing having compared it to actual trading days.

[quote="hiram"]morning LT

ok so i didnt read al's first book to be honest i didnt even know who al was until cobra enlightend me so unfortunatley i cannot comment regarding similarities or differences and because of the density of the info in the three books i built a group of hand picked brains that meets via the internet on monday nights for a book club of sorts to discuss previously assigned chapter and with assistance of replay via ninja trader we test als rules entry exsits and concepts currently we are approx half way through book one.

as for you second question my simple trading style would be most akin to bullbears strategy where by moving averages and trendlines inconjunction with a simple basket of indicators is what dictates the whole of my entry and exit profile only thing is i dont trade es i prefer the uber leverage of options. like for exsample yesterday i went long on the reversal bar at 9:45 into the resistance zone at 136.4 which turned out to be a nice little profit in the bank before i went to work at noon. which by the way is exactly what cobra predicted the night before.

hiram

[Cobra]

H2 long, let's see.

[Petsamo]

USO retreating

high gas prices are bad for Obama, don't expect oil to keep ripping short term.

Is the VIX double bottoming? Bottom of the BB on the daily

Hi all.
We should keep in mind that rising oil prices presents new headache for the Europe, after 130$ some actions should follow. I think 140$ price would possess a great danger for their attempted “recovery”.

$130 - $140 oil is a long way up

[hiram]

+1

Update from yesterday

Metals generally have good chart set ups, but are at a crossroads. I like the miners over the metals, although Silver has been a terrific play this week. Update - Reasonable buy setup on GDX, but may have another day of selling.

Commodities have reasonable set ups, but waiting for more breakouts on some of the ones I follow. UNG has this innate ability to lose 3% in 30 seconds and then grind higher the rest of the day. I have bought the last couple of dips and although I am currently green, I don't like the stability. Will hold as long as the 5/10 EMA's cooperate with a positive MACD. Update - Short leash on UNG...what a dog. Nothing has triggered.

Equities probably need to make one more push to the top of the BB which is currently at 1375 on SPX. Maybe we get a nice gap and trap in the next day or two. BTFD still seems to be working, but overall the set up for big money on equities is currently not available IMO. Update - Still believe this is possible. Would like to see a pop then sell off.

TVIX - I must mention my girlfriend that I have avoided like the plague since last Friday. TVIX will make another powerful move soon, but I don't see it in the 16's, but rather the 15's or even high 14's. Maybe it will coincide with the gap and trap. Update - Entered small position at 15.75. Unfortunately, I think the 14's is more likely for any kind of add.

Finally, this has been a difficult week to get traction on profits and I have likely overtraded. Cobra, I notice that the impulse system is only sitting on 2 losses both SDS . Wow if those were eliminated it would be a banner year.

[Mr. BachNut]

The rock and the hard place for the powers that be seems pretty well outlined by the market over the last few months.

Limited liquidity = debt crisis and recession
Unlimited liquidity = high energy quotes (food next?)

[BullBear52x]

GM,

QQQ trying to break out for the 3rd time, but SMH is hanging on by the cliff, Hmm.... a rotation that's doesn't look that healthy. well, no bear set up work more then a day so lets forget the bear part Double top on SPY oh yay! for few minutes just to tease da bears. look at this chart, if you believe that we are approaching a top of sort, well, the weakest link is the far left and far right one that will be my focus

[proteus46]

USO retreating

I think USO will gap up again Monday morning, so I'm not holding SCO over the weekend.

what's your prediction based on? /CL is looking strong, but at a major resistance level. USO is also 13+% stretched above it's 200MA, and showing overbought on the RSI. i think there will be some kind of pullback here. i'm short from today's open.

I agree with everyone you said jarbo456, USO has closed above the upper BB several days in a row. Geopolitical excuses
are not good enough now. The media is pushing the oil-mania hard and I think the "weekend traders" may jump in long
without realizing the $110 resistance. For me, holding SCO over the weekend is too risky.

[stucap]

SPX is really running out of steam -- but then again, we are fighting major resistance and have been slowly but surely all year.

Bull machines want a new high and won't stop buying until we get there unless some bad news triggers an "event". At this point, if the wedge breaks, we'll have a 2-3% down day. But the wedge would have to break!

[jarbo456]

USO retreating

I think USO will gap up again Monday morning, so I'm not holding SCO over the weekend.

what's your prediction based on? /CL is looking strong, but at a major resistance level. USO is also 13+% stretched above it's 200MA, and showing overbought on the RSI. i think there will be some kind of pullback here. i'm short from today's open.

I agree with everyone you said jarbo456, USO has closed above the upper BB several days in a row. Geopolitical excuses
are not good enough now. The media is pushing the oil-mania hard and I think the "weekend traders" may jump in long
without realizing the $110 resistance. For me, holding SCO over the weekend is too risky.

gotcha, and very wise. leveraged short etf is probably not the way i'd go either, and who knows, anything over the weekend could happen and oil could jump the trend line and be at 110 by monday morning - it's not far off.