02/24/2012 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

cobra if all major players are expecting a pullback would not that INVALIDATE one ?

there'll be a pullback, just don't guess it when and where, the market will show us then we just follow, simple as that.

[hiram]

+1..... very good i took a screen shot of your points for my group next monday

thanks


p.s simple is better and bet big when you have high probability of being right but dont hesitate to exit if need be.... i only try to not loose money and in the process i make piles

What do you think of Al Brooks' new three books compared to the one older one? I've been looking for someone who has read the old and new to see if all three of the new are worth picking up.
Can you share any of the details of the types of breakouts you take? Just curious.

good morning cobra

your last couple nights reports are in my opinion are each worth the 120 i paid you for the year! between your daily dose of wisdom and als three new books my home grown strategy of intraday trading spy breakouts via options has put me in the mid 4 figures for my year to date return using my standard 10k position. i dont post much but i read everyday and if work doesnt allow me to follow post by post i always make sure to replay the market using ninja trader as i read the live posts, this also lets me score other posters effectiveness from a call standpoint. to sum up for anyone reading this post paying the 10 mthly or 120 yearly is in my opinion the best value anywhere on the internet.


Thanks Cobra I appreciate your hard work!


P.S i also owe huge props to bullbear Al Cougar and 99 for unknowingly assisting in my tradeing education.

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only my opinion--the first book has everything you need if you spend a lot of time with it due to the simplicity of the method. generally you can make a very simple inclusive statement--but it requires the listener to either have a great deal of understanding--or be willing to put much concentration into that simple thing. or you can make a long series of exclusive statements and in theory the listener is slowly drawn though the data and learns.

the glitch is the more you explain--the harder the reader has to work to get back to the original meaning that the whole explanation started from. or the the less you explain the statement the more the student has to struggle to grasp what is contained in the simple statement. in both cases the student should be careful to consider the possible pitfall and err in the direction of overdoing it in the direction he chooses (eg simple idea more thought and work--complex idea more effort to grasp the root meaning)

in this context if you look at what al is saying--at it's essence it is

(1) "every price bar tells a story or has meaning" (this is it in a one sentence nutshell the problem is the idea is too compact for people to grasp)

(2) "groups of price bars have meaning"
(3) "with proper understanding of 1 and 2 you can in effect "understand the market in every moment it is open using nothing but a 5 min chart with a 20 ema on it".
(4) cut down the number of trades and scale size of trade as you get better

Optional stuff that al notes but for one reason or another doesn't always do.

(4) the best thing to do is find a trend and get in fast if it is a fast trend--or buy a pull back if it is a slower trend. (he scalps too)
(5) pick only optimal trades (eg strong trends) (he takes lots of trades)
(6) stick with one time frame and spx futs (he buys some stocks and different time frames)

Key considerations (to me)

(1) if al likes to be in the market alot--is this picking the best trades?
(2) what mental processes does the student need to apply to actually do this 5 min stuff day in and out and stay focused in the right areas. (what does the student need to do to concentrate that is not taught in the book)
(3) is the point of trading to make money or to have fun
(4) how much time is trading worth given our short time on the planet

what i am trying to say is "don't get lost in a forest of ideas explained in insane detail for 1500 pages and forget al's real brillance--every price bar and every group is telling a story if you listen. "looking for something (eg chart pattern etc) is not the same as looking at something." when we look for something--even as subtle and cool as some of als more amusing 1-5 price bar patterns are--we fail to see everything else. we need at all costs to look at what is going on not what we want to go on or what we learned should go on.

another way to say this is "listening is not the same as thinking"

I was too busy thinking about too many things one after another. He said that when we talk to ourselves without listening carefully we usually are not aware of preoccupations or obsessions that separate us from someone or something.
LISTENING. . .IS DIFFERENT THAN THINKING BECAUSE IT IS MORE REFLECTIVE MORE OBSERVANT


good luck with your trading

[taggard]

PAGING TAGGARD
What is the title of the first Brooks book?
thanks
PS: I luved Dancing w Lions, esp the “find the losers” concept (and more).
Am still working on other homework u gave me (eg: eliminate everything not essential to goal, that’s taking me a while….)

THANKS AGAIN

thank you al--consider the coke bottle guy--and the reaction to him by everyone in the trading room. personally for me this was the essence of the book coupled with the adversity part--intent is all. the problem is to put yourself in that room as one of those guys and actually be the guy who checks out the "weird concept". what's amazing is nobody looked--if you are looking at nutty stuff that has to be bogus--you have to be heading in the right direction.

second i am no teacher i am about as slow and dumb as they come--it takes me 3x longer than most people i know to learn anything. and i have serious trust issues with everyone including myself that certainly slows down the process and almost forces mistakes by default. but at the risk of leading you astray re your idea "eliminate everything not essential to goal" you consider 2 elements of the problem

1. what is the goal
2. why is that the goal

what is the goal is easier. for example people always say "i want to make money" but being on this site is not the fastest way to do that--we do this site for human interaction. all i am saying is to really clearly define the goal is a way to find the path to it by working backwards from the accurately stated goal to where we happen to be now.

a far messier (and far more important) question is "why is that the goal". so in the previous example--why do i want to make mountains of money? lets say it's to impress chicks--is there any other way to do this? or is there a better way to do this? or why is it i must impress every chick i see? and so on.

to do question 2 we have to consider the nature of aesthetics. and generally these are a function of how we organize our world based mostly on habit and past experience. this stuff maybe very useful and worthwhile or it can be total bullshit. or more likely some of both. But the point is often our actions are defined by something we fail to examine (aesthetics or the nature of truth and beauty) which is defined by ontology (the study of being existence or reality--or i like "being") and epistemology (the nature and limitations of knowledge)

so my point is if i am having a hard time figuring out how to best get to the beach--first i want to be sure i want to go there as the difficulty could be a hint. second if i consider the problem starting at the beach or starting from an aerial view of the whole situation it could be easier. so a change in perspective. or seen another way--"if i am lost in the forest--if i can climb the highest tree and look around--i could be able to see the direction out better than trashing at ground level".

if the goal is to make money find only strong(ish) trends blindly enter and stay until it ends. if the goal is fun take counter trend scalps on that trend. would be a thumb nail sketch of an application. there is nothing more fun then pulling off a tricky trade--and nothing more stupid in terms of making money. yet taking only good trades is profitable yet sort of boring (if one is even able to overcome one's flaws and do so in the first place--hence my issues with trust)

good luck with everything al--glad you were amused by the book out of hundreds of books on trading that is one of the few i really liked. as a fairly technical guy i loved the trashing of technical trading.

[SWalsh]

SWalsh:

Your various posts re: the monitoring and insight into what traders are doing is something I have sensed for many years now.

With the advent of on-line/real-time trading, the "house" knows exactly what cards I am holding, what I am contemplating (cued up trade but not yet entered), and with enough time they will know my trading patterns/strengths/weaknesses. I believe it would take very little effort to aggregate all that info from across all their traders, into a meaningful tool for ease of manipulation.

It Is rigged, I know that and trade accordingly.

It's my understanding that the HFT machines (the ones directly hooked up to the quote systems where there is no latency) see the entire "deck". It's not hypothetical to state that the divulging of orders could be charged as a felony as well as involve RICO laws. We have decided to overlook that fact because the principal reason for any exchange's existence is to make itself, and its owners/members money. The public does not enter into that equation as to their being treated fairly.

The issue with "trade accordingly" is that one cannot at all times do so. When they can take the Dow up, and down, 70 points in one second they have allowed an element into the market that does not just trade the mkt, but that IS the market AND it controls your position. I was shocked to read that the NYSE itself was calling for a mandated time a quote must remain in the system. That can only come from their recognition that without the public there is no market. Former Head Grasso has called them parasites and wants them ripped out, as stated during an MSNBC interview. 24 hours later his appearance was not online anymore to view.

The ramifications of this are far greater than whether you or I make money today, next week, or next month. It eats at the core of our capitalist system like a retrovirus. At some point there will be a downturn (unless we go the route of massive inflation like Argentina did and although elevated, money is lost in real terms) and when that happens, like in 2008, you are going to see commercial paper quotes widen. A friend of mine deals in lending amounts of money up to $5 billion dollars. There were some firms, and he said I would know their name, coming to him asking for loans at 12% for 90 days in late 2008 as they could not sell short-term commercial paper. That most were rejected for it meant that someone else had turned them down at 9% while T-Bills were flat to negative with regard to rate. It's tough to make the payroll when you have no cash!

[waverider]

Financial or banking? XLF, BAC, and C here. all under 5 dma

nice, good c/p ratio on vxx/uup as well.

I'll come back and read the essays people are writing later.

[taggard]

paging al--opps

"reading price charts bar by bar" al brooks cobra has stuff from under ( i think) getting started. (i found out about the book from reading cobra and really owe him for it again out of hundreds of books over 15 years--this is one of the few that stand out.)

[Me XMan]

Got my poison $137.15

[Petsamo]

The Nikkei rallied some from their open.
The Hang Seng, India, & the DAX dropped some from their open.
So, I wouldn't be surprised if we finish lower than our open.
But who knows ...

[pidge66]

ADD ON--

for thinking and listening--consider cobra's use of measured moves. i like them and have used the idea for years. al makes the point they are minor in importance and not that big a deal. in terms of thinking a measured move is a conceptual overlay that attempts to predict future action. that would be thinking in the thinking listening model. next consider cobra's frequent use of volume spikes on exhaustion bars--this would be listening. the difference is that when cobra or anyone refers to a measured move it is not real--it is only a likely outcome. when cobra or anyone refers to a price bar that is real. thinking is an abstraction that can be useful but is not real in the same way the thing being thought about is.

the danger for the student is confusing them--everyone focuses on targets projections and so on--this is fine as long as it does not distract or weaken our really powerful skill--listening feeling and seeing actual action.

power is seeing a trend and jumping on it--not approximating the outcome of the event prior to it's occurrence. often to the beginner the inverse appears true. as long as we always remember this it's ok to do all the thinking we like. but al's real contribution is all based on the idea of listening to the action and then entering in an exact way. For the beginner memorizing all the exact entries is interesting and a good exercise--but only if the idea of focusing on solid trends ASAP is not lost in the process.

sorry if all this seems pushy--but there are many posts here with conceptual targets to every 1 post of real listening--this is not in any way a criticism of conceptual targets--it's just pushing the essence which is listening to the action.

good luck everyone

Thanks Taggart for your insight with Al Brooks' style of trading. I've gone through one of Al's presentations and summarized it in my blog below. It's a gist of what Al Brooks is all about in the context of his first book. I thought it's relevant here and may help someone get up to speed. http://goo.gl/38Es9

[BullBear52x]

Ding Ding Ding.....yes, you know who you are.

[taggard]

ADD ON--

for thinking and listening--consider cobra's use of measured moves. i like them and have used the idea for years. al makes the point they are minor in importance and not that big a deal. in terms of thinking a measured move is a conceptual overlay that attempts to predict future action. that would be thinking in the thinking listening model. next consider cobra's frequent use of volume spikes on exhaustion bars--this would be listening. the difference is that when cobra or anyone refers to a measured move it is not real--it is only a likely outcome. when cobra or anyone refers to a price bar that is real. thinking is an abstraction that can be useful but is not real in the same way the thing being thought about is.

the danger for the student is confusing them--everyone focuses on targets projections and so on--this is fine as long as it does not distract or weaken our really powerful skill--listening feeling and seeing actual action.

power is seeing a trend and jumping on it--not approximating the outcome of the event prior to it's occurrence. often to the beginner the inverse appears true. as long as we always remember this it's ok to do all the thinking we like. but al's real contribution is all based on the idea of listening to the action and then entering in an exact way. For the beginner memorizing all the exact entries is interesting and a good exercise--but only if the idea of focusing on solid trends ASAP is not lost in the process.

sorry if all this seems pushy--but there are many posts here with conceptual targets to every 1 post of real listening--this is not in any way a criticism of conceptual targets--it's just pushing the essence which is listening to the action.

good luck everyone

NICE STUFF

i would only add that in the first book he cautions constantly about using esp 1 min charts--and to a lesser degree 3 min charts. personally i use 5 15 and look at a day chart a few times (that is my concern is more losing the larger picture than getting even more granular. maybe he has changed a bit on the 1-3 min stuff. another view of this granular is if i am trading a scalp that stuff is more useful--if i am trying to trend it's less useful. my personal problem is losing half the trend and getting out early. Finally beginners are often trashed by cognitive difference introduced by using multiple time frames--after some experience the situation could be inverse. so i would push only the 5min chart for say a year--or 200 trades and then scale up or down as the trader likes (only an personal opinion)




Thanks Taggart for your insight with Al Brooks' style of trading. I've gone through one of Al's presentations and summarized it in my blog below. It's a gist of what Al Brooks is all about in the context of his first book. I thought it's relevant here and may help someone get up to speed. http://goo.gl/38Es9

[Al_Dente]

1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

PAGE TAGGIE
Dual goals: 1) make money AND 2) have fun
Life is short; need both.

“reading price charts bar by bar" (right up my alley already) by al brooks
aaaaaaaaaaaa, I remember the snake has an amzn link
I’ll order it from him

Your “””””aerial view of the whole situation it could be easier. so a change in perspective””””” is my “see the macro, then drill down to the micro.”
That’s my challenge in eliminating the “unnecessary.”
I’m jealous of traders who have a myopic/micro focus on only one thing/vehicle. I know one who scalps QQQ for nickels
and cares about absolutely nothing else. I can’t get there; don’t want to.
For whatever reason(s) I need the overview of the forest before I can reach a level of confidence where I can snag a tree.

U always have some good shite there my friend. Best 2 u…

[fehro]

a sharp rising bear wedge... seems doubtful

[DRL]

See UVXY (TVIX) and SLV (AGQ and ZSL).
Getting ready for a move one way or the other..............
Watch close and catch the start................
The moving averages (FWIW, I use 10, 20 and 39 EMAs) on the 5 min charts are really compressed.

[BullBear52x]

This sell I want to see 136.93 breaks down, or it's no good.

[Al_Dente]

FCX just broke out

[Cobra]

poll time: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=467

[taggard]

[quote="Al_Dente"]1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

PAGE TAGGIE

“reading price charts bar by bar" (right up my alley already) by al brooks


Your “””””aerial view of the whole situation it could be easier. so a change in perspective””””” is my “see the macro, then drill down to the micro.”
That’s my challenge in eliminating the “unnecessary.”

I’m jealous of traders who have a myopic/micro focus on only one thing/vehicle. I know one who scalps QQQ for nickels
and cares about absolutely nothing else. I can’t get there; don’t want to.

For whatever reason(s) I need the overview of the forest before I can reach a level of confidence where I can snag a tree.

please don't shoot me al--but reading charts bar by bar is in fact looking at the crazy guy given what you said about your preferences--because al says no technicals or big picture--you already have an epic eye for detail--i find 1 min tough--it took me 6 months working 12 hours a day to work it out and almost killed me i am 5 min max--so you are tougher than i am or more dialed in. the point with the qqq scalp thing is that he is actually making far less money than trading a trend using futs--this implies an inner bias. why is that bias that way will tell you something about that guy and what goes on in his head both in trading and life. i too like the overview of the forest--but what i need to admit is--that it is actually less profitable and more dangerous at least half the time. this is because it slows me down--and often causes me to think outside the 5 min frame i am using most of the time day to day. what i am saying is GETTING THE CONFIDENCE HAS A PRICE--not making a judgement on the perspective. sorry about this-but you might want to consider the lines "i am jealous. . " and " i can't get there; don't want to". given their location in the two sentences. the other view of that is you could be having more fun than your friend and you stated that was a goal. only my feeling and only from reading your posts is that you can do pretty much anything you want to if you stick with it--only my opinion from limited evidence at a distance.

thank you al good luck

[jimme]

BAC just confirmed a bearish pattern of 3 pushes down on a 5 min chart. Maybe it's time to wakeup. GLTA jimme

[Cobra]

this kind of consolidation still have upside bias.