volume surge and not a good looking bar, so hopefully for bears, a little consolidation here at least.
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Reading for later. It's a research paper discussing a trading system. I ran into it trying to find info on trading breakouts. Their focus is intraday open range breakouts. Interesting because they include all their data/code/backtesting etc. Anyway I figured it may be useful to someone.
My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
My take on the action for what its worth. Weakness should continue through out the day, but I am looking for a better buy point on the SPY. I still believe we will get the rip outside of the BB currently at $138.30 on SPY and 1379.33 on $SPX. Not sure if the buy the dip is today or tomorrow yet. Not easy to determine.
Close to my first target then finally correction? Hope so
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My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market (Jess Livermore)
L_T wrote:Reading for later. It's a research paper discussing a trading system. I ran into it trying to find info on trading breakouts. Their focus is intraday open range breakouts. Interesting because they include all their data/code/backtesting etc. Anyway I figured it may be useful to someone.
thanks lt. fun quick read. in return two things come to mind from my experience. (1) if we are trading individual stocks--understanding the character of that stock--and simply where we are in the individual trend or range of that stock. eg watch very carefully if you see even a very messy 2 tries up or down in side a range. again this can be very messy--but the third time is often key. a false breakout on any third try is often a really key sign of a reversal to at least the bottom of the range and very likely lower. (2) Depending on the situation it's often better to ignore the breakout and buy even a minor back test of that point. while this can be very frustrating it's also very safe and thus one can leverage a play. the frustration comes in when the move extends and there appears to be only a minor back test--but that is where "character is destiny".
we often get pissed if we don't get what we want--but by observing character we can get what we need. the fact that the stock is reluctant to "correctly" back test is a clue that the trade is even better than expected. you never know anyone until they are put under pressure--and the same is true for stocks (both upside and downside pressure). So the sense is that if the stock breaks out and we failed to take it "we screwed up" and that could be true. But buying a successful test with leverage would actually make as much or more money in a paradoxically safer situation (eg the stock appears to be more extended and we are using more leverage but actually a confirmed breakout is safer.)
thanks for the story and good luck with your breakouts--hope you will share whatever you come up with.