03/03/2012 Weekend Watering

[trendfollower]

Article on natural gas, oil, uranium, and coal:

http://goo.gl/R0jb3

[Harapa]

Yesterday IWM broke its support. Its LOD was only ~9 cents below what TD Demand line breakdown would have predicted. Here are various levels to watch on Monday for SPY and IWM. Also enclosed is additional information on how one may use this information for trading.

[Harapa]

For details of this system see last weekend watering forum.

[Al_Dente]

HELLO WEEKENDERS
Curious that NAMO has deteriorated so much so that it is now getting close to its BOTTOM ZONE (pink circle).
This deterioration in NAMO was oddly NOT ACCOMPANIED BY the usual deterioration in price.
It’s challenging to find another time in the past when this has happened.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... listNum=15

[Cobra]

[Cobra]

HELLO WEEKENDERS
Curious that NAMO has deteriorated so much so that it is now getting close to its BOTTOM ZONE (pink circle).
This deterioration in NAMO was oddly NOT ACCOMPANIED BY the usual deterioration in price.
It’s challenging to find another time in the past when this has happened.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... listNum=15

Right, it's a very interesting chart. Thanks.

[Cobra]

I don't know why Schaeffer always read those charts as bullish. At least I don't see they're bullish.

When VIX 20-day buy-to-open call/put ratio is down from extremely high readings, it could mean top.

When 20 day buy-to-open p/c ration is high, you never know when it peaks, so you cannot read it as bullish, especially the chart apparently shows series of lower higher and lower low, so you cannot say the current reading at 3.3 is not the high!

[BullBear52x]

HELLO WEEKENDERS
Curious that NAMO has deteriorated so much so that it is now getting close to its BOTTOM ZONE (pink circle).
This deterioration in NAMO was oddly NOT ACCOMPANIED BY the usual deterioration in price.
It’s challenging to find another time in the past when this has happened.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... listNum=15

The possibility of low is close but it could turn nasty first see last two time of peak to low at -50, no opinion just saying

[BullBear52x]

for conservative trend change will not occurred until 136.70 or so.

[BullBear52x]

for the die-hard, have a good one all.

[Al_Dente]

Many noticed the weakness in $RUT/IWM on thurs and fri.
So weak in fact, it may MIGHT be very short term oversold already.
My favorite (Cobra’s) 60min ChiOsc (in gold on top) is flashing a bottom that is usually, not always, good for at least a four hour pull-up…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p= ... =249210443
Same thing can be seen (in reverse) on the bear TZA 60min.


On the daily, u can see how IWM has completely lost its correlation with $SPX (top panel, orange), pierced its lower bolinger
and offered sell signals on other indicators (with no positive divergences yet).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p= ... =247538331

[btran874]

Houston we got a problem. Jupiter is in Taurus for next week. Over.

[Al_Dente]

The banks are still trying to party like it's their birthday.
Here is Ned Davis Research on the Financial Sector, updated yest,
showing the dollar amount of exposure that U.S. banks currently have to the EUzone crisis (red arrow).
Ned is still “underweight” financials, which is a euphemism for sell…
http://screencast.com/t/x8FhZQ3zuYr

On my narrow little bank-watch, the plastic banks (credit cards) were the strongest-of-the-weak… at least they were stronger than the capital market banks (investment banks) and the cash banks (money centers)…. until aaaaaaaaaaaa, say Thursday…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p= ... =256268642

[wayne0708]

HELLO WEEKENDERS
Curious that NAMO has deteriorated so much so that it is now getting close to its BOTTOM ZONE (pink circle).
This deterioration in NAMO was oddly NOT ACCOMPANIED BY the usual deterioration in price.
It’s challenging to find another time in the past when this has happened.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... listNum=15

Thanks for the chart, Al. It is most beautiful piece of art I ve seen this week.

[taggard]

re als iwm observation

iwm that 50 ema daily looks like a hold first hit sort of thing. as usual it would be better if we went under it scaring everyone and then bounced. that is roughly a 38% fib from the dec low to the feb high. we held (more or less)at the 10 and 20 emas first hit so every reason to assume this one would work too. (with fibs i allow myself to use the last lower low--and the last major low (call it oct) but nothing inbetween.

i use a rule of thumb that it takes about half the time to break though overhead or support as it does to create it. if that is true and actually works here--we mite see iwm bottom first then spy/qqq and then a move up in about 2 weeks since there is about 1 month of overhead. that leaves time for iwm to test the 50 up to 3 times and prove or disprove that as a key support area.

i would say the nymo stuff is bullish--and would likely mean things go higher than the last high. if you correct with no serious loss in price in the short term that is good--longer term it's telling you slowly they are moving towards the happy camper reading on the dial and xtreme caution is suggested.

off topic (like think about it stuff) first one is from ritholtz and second from casa (real money)

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said on Thursday that based on current evidence the Greek bailout would not prompt payments on the credit default swaps.” Here is a question for the crowd: Exactly how brain damaged, foolish and stupid must a trader be to ever buy one of these embarrassingly laughable instruments called derivatives?

The claim that Greece has not defaulted — despite refusing to make good on their obligations in full or on time — is utterly laughable.In order to get paid on a default, you need a committee to evaluate whether or not failing to make payments is a — WTF?!? — default? Even more ridiculous, the committee is composed of biased, interested parties with positions in the aforementioned securities?

ISDA: After this shitshow, why on earth would anyone EVER want to own an asset class that requires you to determine payout? Indeed, why should ANYONE ever buy a derivative again?


Today I believe the market fears the repercussions of the failure to trigger protection- and what it means for existing CDS written on Italian and Spanish bonds. In essence, the market believes that this ruling will set precedence for other CDS. If Greece gets a pass, the market may assume so to will Italy and Spain (and Portugal and Belgium for that matter). So their hedge is not really a hedge after all. The Italian bond market is huge. If punters dump their long Italian bonds en masse, not even George Soros might sop them up.

these show 2 interesting problems. the key idea is that the overall derivatives market is someplace between 600 trillion and 1000 trillion nominal value (we don't know since the accounting is strange--and since people leverage things)--and maybe 60-100 trillion in what folks might think of as real value (world gdp is close to 60 for reference) hence the idea that this stuff might all of a sudden (say over a year or so) become shred (in whole or in part) is an interesting problem. and the bond market is getting tricky since the govs have to print money which makes the bonds worthless--pay very low interest--and now investors run the risk of a 30-75% "controlled default" that doesn't exist as far as some people are concerned.

someplace in the middle of all this is the "unanticipated consequences" that cause the next big problem in the markets. right now everyone thinks that govs will print their way out--but most people are not thinking about the scale of the printing that would be required to solve a combo of sovereign debt--and derivatives at the same time. lets say you have to create 20-30 trillion over a fairly short period of time--this will trash the lower 6 billion on the planet. that is an issue in one form or another.

(hint--keep an eye on japan bonds over the next 1-3 years--greece is one thing--japan is another despite the fact that many bonds are held locally. no matter what your gal tells you--size matters)

[trendfollower]

Article update on Momentum Reversal Method for trading stocks:

http://goo.gl/7hn7e

[Mr. BachNut]

HELLO WEEKENDERS
Curious that NAMO has deteriorated so much so that it is now getting close to its BOTTOM ZONE (pink circle).
This deterioration in NAMO was oddly NOT ACCOMPANIED BY the usual deterioration in price.
It’s challenging to find another time in the past when this has happened.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p= ... listNum=15

Agree. Next week we may see McClellan type oversold conditions with indexs higher than when the indicator went into deterioration, which is unusual.
I haven't had time to study it, but I suspect strength in a smaller group of stocks with large index weightings (like AAPL) has been overpowering the softness emerging elsewhere in the market (like the transports and a good chunk of the Russell 2000).
The stocktiming.com chart posted earlier shows the ongoing positive liquidity and institutional buying, which is supportive, but I am guessing of a narrowing breadth of stocks.
This all does suggest a rolling type correction scenario that allows for any dip to be shallow.
Further supporting that is the rate of change in the McClellan Summation Index. It is very low and characteristic of a trendless market.
Events obviously can change things.

I am still short at the moment and wishing I had shorted IWM instead of SPY. I anticipate this will be a red trade but a rollover next week (possible exhaustion high included) may allow it to go black. I don't think it will be a big % move either way.

[BullBear52x]

Breadth, see more at my blog.

[BullBear52x]

One more since IWM is a talk of the town, here is some target base on Fib measurement. where is everybody? gone to church?

[KeiZai]

Ciao weekenders

Wanna some astro? Here you go, something really bad is gonna to happen all this 5 astro in a row have bad impact on people behaviour

Vix? Check when jupiter exits Taurus last time

More bear porn? Okey

MMTheory

P.S: dont play TZA and TNA see links

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TNA# ... =undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TZA# ... =undefined

Sayonara see u tomorrow