03/09/2012 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

still key time, failed rebound here, then here would be the target.

[Al_Dente]

Ouch, even the stable little 5m renko that I stole, pardon, borrowed from benandlloyd just signaled sell
That hasn’t happened in two whole days
We’ll see how that works out…

[gvg]

This is really an up market,
Dollar up
Gold up
Silver up
Market up

[Me XMan]

We have Portugal and Italy coming up and ISDA has spoken so these two will have huge impact.
They should kick Greece out EUzone. Be done with it. Default please.

[BullBear52x]

a close below open will give a reversal pattern and on a daily candle as well, the whole world will see this, not gonna happen.

[SB73]

ok that woke me up, but not really. Let's watch what kind of candle the VIX closes with. Right now it is setting up either a red hollow or a hammer.

[Cobra]

weak rebound, I don't like this, could be small double top here, I'll explain if indeed.

[Petsamo]

The bears haven't busted this thing up yet

[Tabby]

I think $RUT plans to go higher 825 now, not confirmed yet .

[taggard]

as i said, i am not bond guy. here is my calculation er, i mean guess. the greece bond haircut is 79% for now. on 3/20 isda is going to tell us the exact number. the cds is not a lot, only 3b. i think it will impact the next bail out. yes, there will be the next one pretty soon. greece lives on that.

yeah. all this sounds right although keep in mind us banks are exposed to at least 50% of the insurance on euro zone debt and that likely as not they have leveraged this to some extent. so looking at this step you could argue that "they cannot let stuff get hit too hard" (and given the really long period leading up to this there was room to offset the losses). but far more to the point--going forward--it's going to force 3-10 trillion (range) more to go into banks world wide from central banks and or treasuries etc etc. keep in mind that leverage in the euro zone banking is epic and leverage here is less but obviously tied to the actions of the weakest links. people tend to focus on the nominal math--and ignore the layers of leverage. this is what happened at the start with sub-prime. the idea at that time (crammer and others) was that "since it's such a small part of the market--whatever damage will be limited".

my guess is the key issue is to think out 1-3 steps on this and look for what damage it does to liquify at the level that is likely implied at the exact time you force austerity on people. in an ecosystem you don't worry as much about nominal hierarchical structure as you do "the limiting factor". in human populations any group is only as strong as the weakest link--and that tends to add drag to a situation.

so i can see how liquidity can be really amped up and thus the immediate problems solved--but what i think is the real problem is the effects of that move (so the problem after the problem is . . er the problem). so far various wise guys out there have argued that "it's not an issue at this time or for the foreseeable future". That sounded uncomfortable but not really wrong. However now we are much closer to something and it's getting far more risky to stick with that "dude it's not yet" stuff. how do we know this? Because we are stating to see huge problems in forward discounting of various US and other government obligations. and these lead to "conditions that cannot happen (because stuff will just explode)" the old saying is "if stuff cannot happen--then it won't" this slowly forces the idea of change. so what was valid in say 2000 when the pinch point looked like 2014-2018 is not as valid now as we near these dates.

esp with the market tending to discount a ways out. summing up (finally) greece and the euro zone problems may be only 3-10 trillion and thus in themselves not the end of the world--but the actions taken in two opposing directions (print money banks and austerity to voters) are likely to create some sort of problem after the problem that will be where things get interesting. Time wise it seems like fairly soon--not 10-20 years but 1-3 years. If you see congress take over the fed (and get weird with the treasury) that mite be a sign of some sort. if you see japan default that mite be a sign of something. if you see Germany go into some serious recession/depression due to exports not working in the euro zone that could be something. and if you see world wide screaming from middle and lower classes that likely will mean something. somerset maugham said "all stories should have a beginning middle and end" this one will too.

[KENA]

weak rebound, I don't like this, could be small double top here, I'll explain if indeed.

Ya but I like it.

[soku]

Ouch, even the stable little 5m renko that I stole, pardon, borrowed from benandlloyd just signaled sell
That hasn’t happened in two whole days
We’ll see how that works out…

scCA03BSV4.png

atr 14, i take it?
what's the top indicator?

[Me XMan]

Probably wait for the weekend and see what's shaking out

The bears haven't busted this thing up yet

[Cobra]

OK, here I mean POSSIBLE double top, need breakout on the downside to count of course, so it's just a possibility.

[Harapa]

Expecting a rebound ~138.02

What is your current stat on TNA?

for TNA IWM is a better guide.
for March 9, 2012
IWM Cash Range
H2 81.34
H1 81.02
Open 80.51
L1 80.00
L2 79.68
and it is way over its upper threshold

I mean next day input, what was it?

Sorry, a little late, but no harm done. I have no clue of how TNA will behave Monday, at least from today's (3/9) price behavior. If price swings > 6% in either direction from previous day close than I have some insight. I plan to post an explanation of how these numbers are arrived at in the weekend forum. It is a little complicated for day forum.

[Petsamo]

Probably wait for the weekend and see what's shaking out

The bears haven't busted this thing up yet

I only see two things suggesting a bear leg. EWZ (Brazil) is selling off; UNG is very oversold and is rallying.

[h2oskier]

h2oskier
very nice, I like that chart

Thanks for the input. I played with the sizes as you suggested, it does the trick! Thanks for your help!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p= ... =260414804

OOOOOOOOOOO yeowwwwzaaaaaa
Nice nice
Now just one more thing
Impt to watch $TRIN totally straight up
Or else TRIN reversed just for easy on the eyeballs viewing $ONE:$TRIN
U want an undiluted view of the volume flowing either INTO ADVANCING STOCKS or INTO DECLINING STOCKS
But that’s just IMHO
B nice to watch it ALL but we just don’t have the real estate, grumble, grumble…
GLTu
pls post updates, as no one else on board posts 1 min IWM

Ah, I get what you are saying now. $ONE: inverts the price of what ever comes after it. I thought it was for the top 100 of the S&P.

This Grasshopper greatly appreciates your help.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p= ... &listNum=1

[waverider]

I'm assuming this is bad for $AUD:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-0 ... k-cds.html

PS: We MUST be in wave 11 of an a of a b of a c flat expanded triangle.

[Harapa]

Expecting a rebound ~138.02

What is your current stat on TNA?

for TNA IWM is a better guide.
for March 9, 2012
IWM Cash Range
H2 81.34
H1 81.02
Open 80.51
L1 80.00
L2 79.68
and it is way over its upper threshold

High of $RUT=821.19, IWM =82.15. very close. This is way different$RUT 813 or IWM 81.3 for H2.From high 833.02 , 38% retracement is 814. Is he using Cam levels?

These number are arrived at using yesterday's true range and today's open. I will post an explanation in weekend forum for people to understand how these numbers are computed.

[BullBear52x]

Expecting a rebound ~138.02

What is your current stat on TNA?

for TNA IWM is a better guide.
for March 9, 2012
IWM Cash Range
H2 81.34
H1 81.02
Open 80.51
L1 80.00
L2 79.68
and it is way over its upper threshold

I mean next day input, what was it?

Sorry, a little late, but no harm done. I have no clue of how TNA will behave Monday, at least from today's (3/9) price behavior. If price swings > 6% in either direction from previous day close than I have some insight. I plan to post an explanation of how these numbers are arrived at in the weekend forum. It is a little complicated for day forum.

OK, I will start to track it from there, Thnx