03/10/2012 Weekend Watering

[BullBear52x]

it originally design to trade commodities, pretty well known for day trader. but like any thing else it needs other support indications. I never have in dept experience using it, but for some day traders they claim to have a very high success rate. here is calculator for it, any more most trading platform have it, just click and play.http://www.pivotpointcalculator.com/

Here is another one that calculates variety of PP, including DeMark's.
http://www.earnforex.com/pivot-points-calculator

So you got sell on small cap right? TNA is a sell correct? I will have charts later on TNA. I got to go now.

[Harapa]

it originally design to trade commodities, pretty well known for day trader. but like any thing else it needs other support indications. I never have in dept experience using it, but for some day traders they claim to have a very high success rate. here is calculator for it, any more most trading platform have it, just click and play.http://www.pivotpointcalculator.com/

Here is another one that calculates variety of PP, including DeMark's.
http://www.earnforex.com/pivot-points-calculator

So you got sell on small cap right? TNA is a sell correct? I will have charts later on TNA. I got to go now.

Per this setup, yes. I sold on 3/7.

[waverider]

Great stuff folks, thanks for sharing. My favorite play on Friday was SBUX, which historically hasn't been a good counter trend trade. The obsession with this company continues to confuse me, but obviously should be respected, so I won't stay too long:

Enjoy your weekends

[Al_Dente]

Can anyone give me a bear $TRAN etf symbol?
Why not?
Whaddya all do just short IYT?

[Grand]

I call this the rainbow options

[Harapa]

Can anyone give me a bear $TRAN etf symbol?
Why not?
Whaddya all do just short IYT?

NO match on this list
http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/categ ... -etfs.html

[taggard]

[quote="Al_Dente"]Looking just at the Relative Strength Ratios, it appears to be a rotation-type thingie.
In Jan and early Feb folks bought the “risk-on” mid and small caps. Then they started selling the small and mid caps and buying the large caps ($OEX).
After the market corrected last week (if u blinked u missed it) folks have started buying the “risk-on” small and mid caps again.
If they had been really scared last week, they would have shed everything and bought the safety and cushy comfort of bonds (they didn’t).

I suppose that is what we must keep an eye on: when the correction resumes, it is inevitable that we’ll see it in money flow out of stocks and into bonds
of all maturities, especially the shorter terms (like IEF etc) and the ETFs like TLT.

NICE POINT AL--ROTATION IT IS. this is a highly speculative idea--but in situations like this i try to find 2 or ideally 3 cycles of pulling back and going up to or just over the whole top. generally you could define this as "we hold the 20 and 50 ema (more or less) on a daily chart. assuming this happens--look very carefully at the 3rd move up--this has the potential to blow out to the upside over 20-40 trading days.

the whole thing feels like "there is no real reason to sell". people keep focusing on stuff like Greece or AAPL but these things are blatant that mostly the price is factored. Something is missing here--a reason for a sell.

generally as a guy who often uses ta to keep track of things--i try to avoid the news. (car chase movies-and porn sites are far safer for traders than "news" or "analysis" 90% of the time) in situations where there is rotation or slow grinds up--you are looking for an inflection point ("the difference that makes a difference" Gregory Bateson). so times like this i blow 6 hours on a weekend reading stuff like aapl intc/arm plans news etc and follow the euro stuff. i try to think of it as junkies think of the idea of "chipping" (eg don't let it get out of hand)

the thing about rotation that psychs people out is that money is not coming out. but maybe it's worth noting it also means money is no going in (in any serious way) either. in movies or books this is about where you get lines like

"it's quite out there. . .far too quite" (100s of movies)

"it would be nice to do something. . . WE are doing something. We're sitting here waiting" (Ronin david mamet robert de niro john frankeheimer)


"A warrior knows that he is waiting and what he is waiting for; and while he waits he wants nothing and thus whatever little thing he gets is more than he can take. If he needs to eat he finds a way, because he is not hungry; if something hurts his body he finds a way to stop it, because he is not in pain. To be hungry or to be in pain means that the man has abandoned himself and is no longer a warrior; and the forces of his hunger and pain will destroy him."
(a separate reality carlos castaneda)

Bonus total speculation--so far the whole thing the whole thing (on a 2 year daily) is starting to look like a 3 peaks and domed house pattern.

http://thepatternsite.com/3peaksdome.html

using this idea and assuming point 14 was last NOV or DEC low--you are looking at a point 23 high between 5-1-12 and 8-30-12. Amusingly this fits the ecri call. (these guys are pretty accurate overall--nobody is flawless--but generally they have been in there)

Bonus speculation 2--if you accept the last crazy idea--then your question is "what would make the market go to say 1490 to 1600". the ideal way to achieve this would be (1) to have a problem crop up in the euro zone or usa econ stuff--that gets solved (so fear and then breakout)

[Harapa]

Tom Demark's Trend Exhaustion Algo suggest trend exhaustion (using S&P500 future prices).
Key:
Up Arrow - Yellow = completion of TD Buy Set up, aggressive entry point
Up Arrow - Green = completion of TD Buy Countdown, conservative entry point
Down Arrow - White = completion of TD Sell Set up, aggressive exit point
Down Arrow - Purple = completion of TD Sell Countdown, conservative exit point
Green/red Line TD Moving Ave I, a close above red line followed by another higher bar triggers a buy point

[su_root]

Hope you all have had a great weekend!

Here is some stats on SPX gain/loss from 1981 - 2011:
http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500/SPX-history

I've also updated the SPX cycle:
http://traders.fi/Indeksit/SP500/SP500_cycle

Bulls have now made a new advance record calculated in days (~2009 -> bull market). %-gain is not a new record (was +34%) but we are over the average and close to extreme (I declared +20% without pullback as an extreme value).

And if anyone is following Nokia, here is (a new) open short interest (8 days to cover, dividend payed out in about 2 months, hoping for short cover rally..):
http://traders.fi/Helsinki/NOK1V/NOK_ADR_Shorts

[trendfollower]

Article on SP 500, Volatility, Oil, and U.S. Dollar

http://bit.ly/AajSWk

[Al_Dente]

thanks Harapa
thanks Tag. PS: Tag, my last “rotation” charts
See money still flowing into the Qs and the NDX (top two panels)
As u are our resident Q expert, perhaps u could chirp the minute u start seeing Qs breakdown

All the bond charts are still bull SPY (except corporates LQD, not on this chart)….green circles here denote bull spy.

Here see what appears to be pulling the markets down, yup, the dollar.
[EDIT: the dollar/currency chart below is based on a BullBear52x chart that I “borrowed” months ago and tweaked quite a bit… thx Baron]

But the TED SPREAD still shows global liquidity easing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

Sorry, another edit on the dollar chart below:
I watch the aussie/yen and FXE because the King Cobra does, thanks King

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED5s1-Fe9FA

[BullBear52x]

Nice charts and info everyone, thank you so much.

Waverider: SBUX = future fast food and beverage hub. they got plan to take over all fast foods and beverages to the new level, making all other fast food joints look cheap and dirty just like AAPL making all other phone and touch pad look cheap and un-cool.

and here is my short term TNA, not much to say since we all focus so much on IWM, the bearishness of all technical breadth could put us sideways for much longer since everyone seems to be so wary on the long side now, so my plan is to stay nimble on day trade, any over night holding short or long are almost suicidal. OK FA aside....here our bread and butter:

[BullBear52x]

thanks Harapa
thanks Tag. PS: Tag, my last “rotation” charts
See money still flowing into the Qs and the NDX (top two panels)
As u are our resident Q expert, perhaps u could chirp the minute u start seeing Qs breakdown

qqq.png

All the bond charts are still bull SPY (except corporates LQD, not on this chart)….green circles here denote bull spy.

bonds.png

Here see what appears to be pulling the markets down, yup, the dollar.
[EDIT: the dollar/currency chart below is based on a BullBear52x chart that I “borrowed” months ago and tweaked quite a bit… thx Baron]

dollar.png

But the TED SPREAD still shows global liquidity easing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL ... re=related

ted.png

Dr. Al, you are going all out this time, Love your charts +1

[BullBear52x]

Tom Demark's Trend Exhaustion Algo suggest trend exhaustion (using S&P500 future prices).
Key:
Up Arrow - Yellow = completion of TD Buy Set up, aggressive entry point
Up Arrow - Green = completion of TD Buy Countdown, conservative entry point
Down Arrow - White = completion of TD Sell Set up, aggressive exit point
Down Arrow - Purple = completion of TD Sell Countdown, conservative exit point
Green/red Line TD Moving Ave I, a close above red line followed by another higher bar triggers a buy point

Nice, I wasn't that far off with Tom Demark , thanks for the calculator link, pretty nice.

[Harapa]

Tom Demark's Trend Exhaustion Algo, no clear picture using Russel 2000 future prices.
Key:
Up Arrow - Yellow = completion of TD Buy Set up, aggressive entry point
Up Arrow - Green = completion of TD Buy Countdown, conservative entry point
Down Arrow - White = completion of TD Sell Set up, aggressive exit point
Down Arrow - Purple = completion of TD Sell Countdown, conservative exit point
Green/red Line TD Moving Ave I, a close above red line followed by another higher bar triggers a buy point
Agree with BB52x better to wait for some clarity.

[BullBear52x]

Average pivot points that I will go with.

[BullBear52x]

Last chart, just a reminder summer will get worst as far as GAS are concerned, how many of you got SUV/Truck? 100.00/week is not cool good luck trading all.

[Al_Dente]

Baron
Recall that the entire rally off the mar 2009 bottom was blamed on a LOW DEPRESSED DOLLAR.
That dollar ($USD) must continue going up in order for yr correction to resume, no?
She’s just bouncin’ around on the daily, double topping and stuff…
…keep us posted $$
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obwanhb6kww

[BullBear52x]

Baron
Recall that the entire rally off the mar 2009 bottom was blamed on a LOW DEPRESSED DOLLAR.
That dollar ($USD) must continue going up in order for yr correction to resume, no?
She’s just bouncin’ around on the daily, double topping and stuff…
…keep us posted $$
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obwanhb6kww

any more it was acting that way, when that happened I see the market as bear market , if US have a solid growth nothing will stop $USD and both $USD and $SPX should move along in same direction that is UP. for the mean time I chart $USD to trade UUP/DBV not a contrarian the market. well, one more chart ha? here my same o $USD she is moving up longer term.