03/14/2012 Intraday Watering

[SB73]

senor SB
u in?

Senor,
Affirmative. Don't laugh, but target in the 15's.

face senor
remember yr pretty face
ps check yr PM in a minute

How do you check private message?

[stucap]

Hey see what happens on a dome,we go dn to the LOD and can go lower.Watch and see.

Not gonna break 1388.25 on ES June. VWAP doesn't budge. Whipsaw back up to HOD coming.

[Tabby]

How one might make use of this information? Check here:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=483&sid=c9c5cadd767 ... 3b6#p66080

Your L2 on TNA hit exactly 61.22.

[SB73]

senor SB
u in?

Senor,
Affirmative. Don't laugh, but target in the 15's.

face senor
remember yr pretty face
ps check yr PM in a minute

How do you check private message?

I think I see how to check PM. I have stop at break even to protect my pretty mug.

[Harapa]

GM All
SP500 futures completed “9-13 TD Sequential” on 1 hour time frame this morning (Purple Down Arrow). Completion of this pattern suggests trend exhaustion/reversal. If you trade futures you may find it useful for actual trading. For all others this indicates some softness in hours to follow. On SPY only 7 of 13 bars are labeled. Even if all bars gets label today sell signal will emerge at the close of today. I will update the chart if I get a signal.
Happy Trading!

yr demark does not seem right, especially the countdown

I am no expert in this matter. I am using Metatrader and indicators from their library to mark these points.

i use metatrader too. i think it is just some script somebody put together. the rule sounds easy, but it is very hard to code per my own experience. just apply the general rule from pearl's book, u will see it is not correct. the same problem appeared on aapl chart as well.
so far i have not seen any cheap alternative other than the couple brokers he authorized to. none of them cheap

I have an excel sheet with Perl’s rules for EOD data. The count there matches with counts here. So while Metatarader indicator may not be a real professional version they are good. Yes, indeed there is no cheap reliable alternates. BTW, I have found a way to add as many stocks in all time frames manually. In case you didn’t know, send me a PM for details of the steps to accomplish this.

[taggard]

In the last 6 weeks appl is up over 30%--420-570; is this really the entire move in NDX and SPX??? I believe it is 20% of the NDX; not sure how large % it is of SPX. Also thanks for the advise/opinions on my current loss due to holding apr 25 calls on VXX; currently they trade at 1, so I would realize a loss of 125k if I sell now---way to big, but I thought 50k was then 75k then 100k, based on what you guys see for next few weeks would you ride this thing or take the pain---your opinions/advise is wanted; but obviously the loss is mine and I am responsible for my trading. Thanks

appl only up 31 points in two days whats wrong; can't we just go up to 750 and be done???

stevej--i did post (a novel) yesterday in response to your situation. that post was the result of losing far more money than you--and talking about and 15 years of pretty hard work. so it wasn't done lightly.

"i would realize a loss of 125k if i sell now" well that's one way to say it--i would say "i have lost 125k and might regain part all or even more of that if there was a serious move in the next few weeks". this idea that the loss is only taken once the position is sold is a very dangerous point of view (in my opinion) personally i mark to market every 1 min on an intra day trade and every day on a longer term trade. this is important since it allows me to sell losers and never get in the situation you are describing.

" so I would realize a loss of 125k if I sell now---way to big" what does this mean? you wisely note that as the loss grew you figured it was too big each step. what's more to the point is why not have sold at 50k and re-entered the trade the second you saw a decent opening on say a daily/hourly? there is a sort of adrenal response to holding a large trade--esp a large losing trade. this creates as it does in other areas such as fighting--a narrowing of attention--the whole world shrinks to this one trade. but your life is made up of a continuum of trades and all that matters is what happens on the entire flow. thinking like this allows you to back off that pin point attention and see the whole picture again. yes each trade should be handled as flawlessly as possible--but trades are like pearls (moments in time) you are stringing on a necklace (your life).

look i know you are in a lot of pain right now--i have been there on a level you don't even want to get close to--so i get it. but ask your self this--"are you acting with a clear mind--or are you worried about the money". the first thing to do in trading is lose the idea that the money means a thing. it's a way to keep score. The trading charts etc all have to be very clear--the more you have tons of emotion behind the trade--or are into the fear of "losing" or gung ho of "winning" you are in serious danger.

despite the pain--learn here about yourself because this will allow you to seriously do better in the future. there is a ton of focus on this board outside at charts and so on--but the real battle is inside. when you are asking for other people's opinions on your trade--something is emotional someplace. more to the point? ok i would ask yourself this--if you were me what would you tell you? eg rather than asking others what they think--put your self in their position and ask yourself what you would tell you from another perspective. non of us can really know what is best.

good luck whatever you chose--and above all learn from this trade--if you get what it's trying to tell you the loss is cheap at 200k. (the value of the trade is how you perceive and use the experience--not the money either way--if some one takes a huge loss and learns--they will make money in the future--whereas those who fail to learn will make money and then just lose it.)

[Cobra]

TSE may have finished the 3 push up now having a little bit bigger pullback. And this is why I think SPX is 3 push up too, we're on the 3rd push up now on the weekly chart, this of course is the biggest picture I have in mind, therefore not important.

[Harapa]

@BB52x, any idea of floor for TNA. I am short TNA.

[KeiZai]

Senor Al,

I did a little study. If 13.50 was the bottom (which is always an if). The last 24 bounces have a median return of 39.6% from the low and an average of 42.1%. The cycle average is 5 days. The worst return was 12.9% which just so happned to be the last cycle. If we duplicate the worst return we should see 15.24.

SB if ur talking about vix can you send me pls your statistic?

Here is something too...THX!
http://mysimplequant.blogspot.com/2011/ ... mally.html

[SWalsh]

Everything you need to know about Goldman Sachs...the Vampire Squid that ruined the markets and exposed the corruption of politicians and (non)Regulatory Agencies. This 12 year employee from Stanford writes in the NY Times why it is destroying itself at the expense of its clients:

NY Times Opinion Page:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opini ... arch&scp=1
(in part)

Today, many of these leaders display a Goldman Sachs culture quotient of exactly zero percent. I attend derivatives sales meetings where not one single minute is spent asking questions about how we can help clients. It’s purely about how we can make the most possible money off of them. If you were an alien from Mars and sat in on one of these meetings, you would believe that a client’s success or progress was not part of the thought process at all.

It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off. Over the last 12 months I have seen five different managing directors refer to their own clients as “muppets,” sometimes over internal e-mail. Even after the S.E.C., Fabulous Fab, Abacus, God’s work, Carl Levin, Vampire Squids? No humility? I mean, come on. Integrity? It is eroding. I don’t know of any illegal behavior, but will people push the envelope and pitch lucrative and complicated products to clients even if they are not the simplest investments or the ones most directly aligned with the client’s goals? Absolutely. Every day, in fact.

It astounds me how little senior management gets a basic truth: If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you. It doesn’t matter how smart you are.

These days, the most common question I get from junior analysts about derivatives is, “How much money did we make off the client?” It bothers me every time I hear it, because it is a clear reflection of what they are observing from their leaders about the way they should behave. Now project 10 years into the future: You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the junior analyst sitting quietly in the corner of the room hearing about “muppets,” “ripping eyeballs out” and “getting paid” doesn’t exactly turn into a model citizen.

[BullBear52x]

@BB52x, any idea of floor for TNA. I am short TNA.

see the wedge.

[Al_Dente]

Senor got yr return study

Keizai thx for link, must study later

Only thing I’m studying at the moment is my face
And red and green

Nydec 2145, magic number, “bear trend” day but must hold >2000
We’ll see

[SigmaEcho]

TSE may have finished the 3 push up now having a little bit bigger pullback. And this is why I think SPX is 3 push up too, we're on the 3rd push up now on the weekly chart, this of course is the biggest picture I have in mind, therefore not important.

hi Cobra, do you have stats on march opex seasonality?
tnx

[Harapa]

~ 10:30 European pump or dump starts. Watching EEM for a clue of direction!

They dumped both IWM & EEM. Expecting sell off in Emerging markets!

[BullBear52x]

Tran is no go

[Harapa]

@BB52x, any idea of floor for TNA. I am short TNA.

see the wedge.

Thanks

[Tabby]

@BB52x, any idea of floor for TNA. I am short TNA.

see the wedge.

Thanks

This is funny, we are in opposite side of trades.

[KeiZai]

Use to be roller coaster

[BullBear52x]

for bears today watch $VIX > 16.11. I will not sell anything until then. $VIX >16.11 will trigger my short swing, I might have to buy some TVIX for the first time this time around. right now I see some support on SPY and DIA unlike IWM and QQQ.

[SB73]

Senor got yr return study

Keizai thx for link, must study later

Only thing I’m studying at the moment is my face
And red and green

Nydec 2145, magic number, “bear trend” day but must hold >2000
We’ll see

Keizai / Senor Al,

Check PM. Remember I am not a professional and do not offer trading advice. TVIX looks like it is in a triangle or consolidation. Hopefully breakout coming.