03/14/2012 Intraday Watering

[soku]

i am still not sure if the support is taken, since it is small and i do see effort to defend the level. i won't be surprised to see a reb back to 1389 area. if it really goes down? i see 1379 (i wish)

nice def. what else can i say. yesterday es 4:15 close was 1386.25. i think this is the key level bulls have to def.

[BullBear52x]

baer got one more hour to show its intention, or this is nothing more than BTFD set up.

[Cobra]

resistance. it's essential for bears to hold here and later break the trend line below. yes, my way of drawing trend line is unique, it's not I don't know the very basic of TA.

[BullBear52x]

intraday buy now.

[jarbo456]

3pm ramp to a galaxy far away. buckle up.

[Cobra]

one common pattern is it'd go like this.

[Al_Dente]

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[jarbo456]

ready? 5....4.....3......2.......1........

[Valance]

Its 1500, now that i have been stalking the site for 2 months let me quote Cobra "The bias is up"

Actually, I admire Cobra and many others, maybe I learned a valuable lesson here after losing a fair amount of cash on Apple. I was actually up 50% of my account value as I was short the day Apple plunged to 526. I had weekly that had tripled in value to include Mar and April puts. But i didn't sell...learn to take profits. Its a strange market we have here, but I would have made a lot more money, and lost much less, if I had just rolled with the market with good stop losses in place rather than trying to front run something we all "know" sooner or later will crash. I guess, I don't want to be a bear or a bull. I want to be a Cobra that rolls with the market.

-David

[Cobra]

goes as planed. how the price tests the day low is key to watch.

[SWalsh]

baer got one more hour to show its intention, or this is nothing more than BTFD set up.

I think legislation was passed that "STFR" is hate speech so that BTFD cannot be repealed. But if I ever see a license plate that reads BTFD the driver is going to meet Yosemite Sam!

[Me XMan]

Sitting on my poisons and not saying a thing

[taggard]

Jarbo

re the spx 1550-1650. using a longer term monthly chart spx is over the 78 fib AFTER failing just under it last time up in 2011. That is a decent looking chart so far.

while i am not a longer term bull people often forget that with inflation based discounting a hit in 2012 of 1550 is not the same as 2000--maybe off by 30-60% in buying power someplace depending on how you factor it. i am not saying spx is a great deal--i am only suggesting it is not as bad a deal as it first appears.

as to what would do the trick?

1. as a rule things get "nutty" at tops and you get absurd spikes (up and down on a monthly).
2. ideally something like Greece leaving the euro zone--which is bot not sold. so that there is some sort of anticipated bummer that doesn't work out badly and then they are all sure "like dudes the bear is all over and like that".
3. what creates the top or the real move down? maybe japan either doing a controlled default? maybe Spain screwing things up after it was not supposed to. Certainly the side effects of liquidity are likely to have some kind of hideous effect.

the key thing is "total loss of confidence" in the central banks short term--that is either justified (voters get upset and start putting controls or slowing down responses by larger player.

but in any case if there is some silly ass whacky move like the last tops--it could be aapl participates and that would be the idea behind a possible move to 700-800.

i am not really forecasting this stuff--but i have been thinking about it for a while. the action that people are upset about (continued moves up) often on this site--is suggestive of the the action near tops. but near in the sense of 1 month to 1 year (again using monthly chart spx). for now given we may have just created rough support at the 78 fib of the last large spx move down you have to at least be open to the idea stuff could do the wacky thing.

good luck

[BullBear52x]

it's no go....still

[BullBear52x]

Sitting on my poisons and not saying a thing

new lOD today someone gonna get drunk, my guess?

[Cobra]

if this is the revisit of the previous low, bears are hopeless.

[SB73]

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Stop is in with profits...not sure what to do overnight. Probably cash 1/2 and let the other 1/2 roll. I am scared of gaps

[BullBear52x]

you see how red this is??????? you see? LOL

[SB73]

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Stop is in with profits...not sure what to do overnight. Probably cash 1/2 and let the other 1/2 roll. I am scared of gaps

By the way, I have a trend line and a 5 min MACD trendline that are being respected and it looks bullish for TVIX.

[Cobra]

key time. bears really need show strength.