04/05/2012 Live Update

[soku]

today is kinda strange, the gap did nothing. any thoughts?

It is / WAS all about the DAX and Europe - the DAX staged a STORMING comeback today and is almost unchanged having been down 100 and in danger of closing below its daily Boll (20, 2) band.

The ES has been trading tick for tick with the DAX since early today and with the big bounce in the DAX and Italian bonds.... all is safe for now.....

It could have been ugly with a REAL 'get me out' trade as Europe is closed on Friday and Monday..... but it did not happen and the European markets are now closing with nice hammers.

-D

since european open, there's rumor on some major bank fail. since 6:00 est, it is in rally and another v shape reversal. very few gap filled like this. it surprised me bears not playing it at all.

1395 was the break out. now bulls are trying to defend it.

[TraderGirl]

Nobody likes the “””bounce””” in gold
GLD = no bats trades in 14 min; no volume
All the volume is in the SLV “”””bounce””””

NUGT looks like it could use one more leg down, has 4 waves, looking for a "possible" wave 5 down...???

[uempel]

Al_Dente, you there? Do you have time to post your prognosis a minute before noon? I'm not trading, I'd just like to see how you interpret the last minutes before noon on your chart. Which one will you be using? Thanks

[Al_Dente]

Nobody likes the “””bounce””” in gold
GLD = no bats trades in 14 min; no volume
All the volume is in the SLV “”””bounce””””

NUGT looks like it could use one more leg down, has 4 waves, looking for a "possible" wave 5 down...???

thanks TG
i edited the above.... [edit: sorry, no bats trades in DGP, DGP]
PS: i saw your dollar non-participation too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR-SlkUgCRg

[Al_Dente]

Al_Dente, you there? Do you have time to post your prognosis a minute before noon? I'm not trading, I'd just like to see how you interpret the last minutes before noon on your chart. Which one will you be using? Thanks

ok I’ll use this one
BUT NOTE THE VISUAL ON THE AD is misleading; the AD numbers are correct
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15
Have a nice spa/sleep weekend

[uempel]

today is kinda strange, the gap did nothing. any thoughts?

It is / WAS all about the DAX and Europe - the DAX staged a STORMING comeback today and is almost unchanged having been down 100 and in danger of closing below its daily Boll (20, 2) band.
-D

I wonder how much algo activity takes place there. I have read they are trying to restrict them, which means someone with brains sees the nightmare of computers given free reign.

SWalsh, not sure about algos over there, but have a look at todays intraday SMI chart: it's state of the art EW. I guess Robert Prechter helped the big boys with the programming

[noob]

Cobra, do we have a cup and handle in the forming?

[uempel]

Al_Dente, you there? Do you have time to post your prognosis a minute before noon? I'm not trading, I'd just like to see how you interpret the last minutes before noon on your chart. Which one will you be using? Thanks

ok I’ll use this one
BUT NOTE THE VISUAL ON THE AD is misleading; the AD numbers are correct
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15
Have a nice spa/sleep weekend

Thanks Al, I'll open up your link. Hope you'll also have some non-screen activity this weekend...

[soku]

maybe it is spring break. maybe everybody is in easter mode. the bulls didn't defend well either. it is very hard to read the chart now. chop for the rest of the day is my best guess.
i think i will get out early today.

[Cobra]

maintain the target as another way to calculate the target yield the same results.

[Al_Dente]

The skew on the AD is still weak with slight bear bias
TRIN bear spy bias
Not on this chart: dollar and yield $TNX are bear spy
VIX bull spy bias
(uemp: if it’s your “reversal” signal it would be a short-covering surprise)

[uempel]

The skew on the AD is still weak with slight bear bias
TRIN bear spy bias
Not on this chart: dollar and yield $TNX are bear spy
VIX bull spy bias
(uemp: if it’s your “reversal” signal it would be a short-covering surprise)

45oneb.png

Yeah, but I see decliners declining and advancers advancing, right?

[Cobra]

AAPL target.

[soku]

The skew on the AD is still weak with slight bear bias
TRIN bear spy bias
Not on this chart: dollar and yield $TNX are bear spy
VIX bull spy bias
(uemp: if it’s your “reversal” signal it would be a short-covering surprise)

45oneb.png

Yeah, but I see decliners declining and advancers advancing, right?

imo, it only works when both lines going extreme. if they going to the middle, it means nobody is advancing or declining. the market is not moving

[uempel]

Al, I guess we can call it a dud...

[uempel]

Tks soku, I guess that makes sense...

[Al_Dente]

The skew on the AD is still weak with slight bear bias
TRIN bear spy bias
Not on this chart: dollar and yield $TNX are bear spy
VIX bull spy bias
(uemp: if it’s your “reversal” signal it would be a short-covering surprise)

45oneb.png

Yeah, but I see decliners declining and advancers advancing, right?

not by much
better view perhaps
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =258735636

[uempel]

The skew on the AD is still weak with slight bear bias
TRIN bear spy bias
Not on this chart: dollar and yield $TNX are bear spy
VIX bull spy bias
(uemp: if it’s your “reversal” signal it would be a short-covering surprise)

45oneb.png

Yeah, but I see decliners declining and advancers advancing, right?

not by much
better view perhaps
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =258735636

Thanks for your help Al, too weak. Indicates that I'm not the only guy who does not want to trade today, too tricky. Have a great weekend, I guess I'm off...

[Al_Dente]

Volume flows into declining stocks
TRIN straight, not iverted

[Al_Dente]

The skew on the AD is still weak with slight bear bias
TRIN bear spy bias
Not on this chart: dollar and yield $TNX are bear spy
VIX bull spy bias
(uemp: if it’s your “reversal” signal it would be a short-covering surprise)

45oneb.png

Yeah, but I see decliners declining and advancers advancing, right?

not by much
better view perhaps
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =258735636

Thanks for your help Al, too weak. Indicates that I'm not the only guy who does not want to trade today, too tricky. Have a great weekend, I guess I'm off...

I’m calling it a continuation (down) signal on a choppy/range day