05/09/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

lunch time, will be back, again, no failure allowed for bulls here, must be up and up and up!

[Petsamo]

Nice-looking H&S on XME 1 min

[TWT]

SPX: Maybe an ED could complete the fifth wave around 1340

From (IV) down and last night's drop both look like 5 wave moves. "IF" EW was viable as it used to be, that would rule out an ED and make yesterday''s rally wave (2). BUT, the circus is in town and Benny is the mole. So you might be right.

Wave wise we have 7 down (as I count) and that means this should be sold. After all, no one bought it up here but a descendant of Bill Gates, who stole Steve Job's pancreas.

I wonder if anyone did a poll asking, "Would you have preferred to have heard that Bill Gates had died instead of Steve Jobs?"..

I think that being flexible in this market is better that follow strictly the rules

[uempel]

Update SPX:

[Petsamo]

My X & XME are looking real nice

[Cilvr]

Hi uempel, is there somewhere I can look to learn more about these charts? TIA

[taggard]

[quote="Mr. BachNut"]Paging Taggard:

Per our 3 Peaks Domed House discussion, I think recent action rules out the May peak scenario but leaves open the July scenario. Agree?
If we can get a close below the April 10 low, this move could make a nice 22 on the chart. We shall see.

using nymo and nysi only maybe end this week or fairly early next week we should try up. so using just those indicators i would assume there is a buy coming. qqq is acting great right now and is about at the 20 ema weekly where it tends to bounce each time. as long as we don't lose that by more than say 1 qqq point or so it feels pretty good. generally the first hit on a weekly holds--and the second weekly bar down comes close to the bottom of the first week. then upside is more possible that would be late this week (first week hit) or early next week (on the idea the second weekly bar is usually a buy.

Looking at a spy daily chart--and again assuming we don't just die here and the qqq sure doesn't feel like it--the action since march looks more like the 15 to 20 area to me. the 15 to 20 period from a psych perspective is a sort of "can we break the last highs" and then you get some mindless move to the 23 area. when i try to visualize the news flow it could be some fed stuff in june (about the last time they can act prior to the election if they are sticking to the old way of doing things as noted by ex fed guys in the past). also this current set up in the euro zone is great--lots of fear etc--if the central bank moves again you will get this "you cannot lose" feeling.

and i think these feelings would finally set up a major top--like point 23. so i pretty much see the same thing you do. which is for 23 may seems less likely and june-july seems more likely.

good luck with your trades

[KENA]

Do we have a double top today..I guess we wait and see.

[Al_Dente]

ok fine could I just get a grip on something already for more than ten minutes
I wish TAG would pop in here and say something using his sage word “relax”
(Taggie: “relax” in any context would be fine, thx)

[KENA]

Update SPX:

34.png

Thanks Uempel, I saved it for ref. tomorrow.

[uempel]

Looks as though the market wants to go up - now.

[taggard]

ok fine could I just get a grip on something already for more than ten minutes
I wish TAG would pop in here and say something using his sage word “relax”
(Taggie: “relax” in any context would be fine, thx)

well one thing that helps me is to scale out time frames--i am spending a lot of time with the weekly right now. if we do what we usually do on that chart--it would look like this--we had not hit the weekly 20 ema until yesterday when we did (finally 16 weeks) usually the first hit holds more or less (eg plus or minus 1 qqq point from the 20 ema weekly). a close look shows the second bar after the first hit is usually has a bottom ball park close to the first bottom. after that you go up.

translation to daily etc--we should be stuck in a range until some time more or less next week--after which assuming we hold in here we should go up later that week and more the following week.

so i am trying to stay relaxed and not try to define this point as the bottom or make statements about later this week. because i think next week will get close to the low of this week. generally the larger view stuff has been working pretty well so maybe these ideas are close to what happens hence i went to the beach and soaked up negative ions (and qi). and plan on spending most of the rest of the day training rather than trading.

it could be some epic event (such as greece coming to an agreement or china buying spains bonds) or the perception of one in any case--or somebody buying the futures markets--takes us up hard into the weekend. but if not--people will have to consider holding longs over the weekends and or covering the large put concentration in may. they may not feel like doing that in which case resolution of some sort could happen next week options exp.

good luck with your trades

[uempel]

Hi uempel, is there somewhere I can look to learn more about these charts? TIA

Are you new to TA? Don't have much time now, am hungry and thirsty, pls send a personal note to my inbox and I'll send you an answer tomorrow. Ok?

[Mr. T]

I think Cobra just needs to cheer "o'lay, o'lay" that's always done the trick in the past.

SPX 1500 Miyagi???

I think by July you'll be right.

[Mr. BachNut]

Bullish stuff I am seeing:

I've got an intraday McClellan Oscillator reading thats just in oversold territory. If we rally into the close, that could clear it though.

I am seeing some positive divergences in some time volume indicators, particularly for the Russell. They are making higher lows.

I have yet to get the sell signal on my McClellan Summation model. It's been overdue but something is keeping the safety on.

SPX 1360 remains a must hold close for the bulls. The fight goes on.

Treasuries selling off from highs.

[Denali92]

The 14/15th is a turn date, so I am assuming on one of those days we might get a final spike lower...could be down to 1335ish. This bottoming process looks much like June of 2011 where we got a complex ABC pattern down, as we are getting today, and then we chopped around on the bottom before we got a spike low on 6/16, and then we bounced. I don't think we will bounce as much as we did back in 2011, but just enough to scare some bears...

Looking at the metals, they bounced around at that time as well with a final spike lower on 6/16 along with the market and then a sharp spike up. I guess we will see how it plays out this time...

From a post employment / pre opex standpoint, this analog will hang together very well if today is not the low - WHY? There have only been 3 post employment bottoms on the Wednesday after since Jan 2007 and only one since the March 2009 low and that was in July 2009....

Even in July 2009 and also last June, the Monday of opex week proved to be either a great entry point (Jul 09) or a good place to start building a position to trade around (Jun 2011).

Thanks,

-D

[Cilvr]

Hi uempel, is there somewhere I can look to learn more about these charts? TIA

Are you new to TA? Don't have much time now, am hungry and thirsty, pls send a personal note to my inbox and I'll send you an answer tomorrow. Ok?

Absolutely! Thanks very much.

[Cobra]

100% Measure Move target. Bulls still cannot have any meaningful pullback here.

[uempel]

Update SPX:

The attachment 34.png is no longer available

Thanks Uempel, I saved it for ref. tomorrow.

Very welcome Kena, It'll be difficult to catch the volatility tomorrow. If every trade is a winner we'll drink champagne after the close...

I posted this chart yesterday in Cobra's blog. Shows support for BPNDX, it might be an indicator for a smallish bounce or a pause of the downtrend.

[MrMiyagi]

I think Cobra just needs to cheer "o'lay, o'lay" that's always done the trick in the past.

SPX 1500 Miyagi???

I think by July you'll be right.

Yes I forgot to mention it today Gilded One!
All intraday pbars were hit.