05/11/2012 Live Update

[cougar]

Spy and Russell Elder Close now red.

Also: VIX breaking up!

[KENA]

COBRA..Thanks for the week..See everyone next week..Have a good weekend.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. I'm really sleepy although I had a very good sleep last night. the feeling isn't good as it looks like just a few bots trying to buy the dip based on the "not up to date" algo, but the majority has no desire to buy this market, therefore after a fast popup then the market began to drop on its own weight, simply there's no buyers there. I have no idea what the next Monday would bring us and I'm actually worried now if I can find something to say in today's Trading Signals. Thank you guys, I'll see you the next Monday.

[cougar]

Spy and Russell Elder Close now red.

Also: VIX breaking up!

Here is VIX

[Cobra]

volume surge, hopefully that means something, such as rebound. boring, really boring day.

I would give up hope on rebound for today Cobra

well, at least big guys tried, see that phantom bar?

Forgive my ignorance, but what is the significance of these?

used to be the target in the next few days, worked very well. No idea now.

[ukarlewitz]

CPCI highest close since Sept 2011

[snakehead]

CPCI highest close since Sept 2011

What is CPCI again? I am not familiar with it.

[TWT]

SPX: its a bunch of overlapping waves. Then maybe price is completing a Triangle wave (B)

[xfradnex]

Spy and Russell Elder Close now red.

Also: VIX breaking up!

XIV closes Red also

[taggard]

CPCI highest close since Sept 2011

very good point thank you

[SWalsh]

ELLIOT WAVE IS NOT EASY!

And it is even more difficult with computers gaming it.

Someone dropped by here and posted a bunch of EW charts, was quite wrong Wednesday on Thursday's call for a gap-and-run, and pissed on the bear parade today. Curious motives indeed. I did not post my wave count (it will bias my thinking and I do not wish anyone to lose money on my thoughts) but EW almost always has a "preferred" count and an "alternate count". I didn't have his as either. Around 11:30ish Cobra was saying "uh oh". I agreed. I bought SPY 136 puts. I wish I had bought 1000 of them. But I am more concerned with trying to get in tune with what these machines are doing.

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. Do your own work. Do NOT rely solely only on others.....you take the loss, not them.

This is what I looked at today. "IF" it is right, this could be a complex correction for new lows AND it fits well as the 2nd correction is taking place after an X wave drop. It all implies weakness. And in taking this much time I don't think it's a wave 4 but rather a wave 2 so we could really get hit! The drop today though makes me consider we might bounce one more time and it is not a-b-c-x-a-b-c but a triangle with a-b-c-x-a-b-c-d-e.

Nothing from the lows has been impulsive in structure, despite what some Greeks might tell you.

[SWalsh]

SPX: its a bunch of overlapping waves. Then maybe price is completing a Triangle wave (B)

I can't say, nor can anyone, anything but it locked between lines. And one can do quite well if they see that forming.

I don't believe this is corrective going down. There are too many longer term things saying 100 SPX+ lower. By Wed we should have a good idea. If Cramer says "JPM is fine", well then we know

[xfradnex]

Spy and Russell Elder Close now red.

Also: VIX breaking up!

Here is VIX

Blue crosses Pink, we go up?

[Al_Dente]

....I have no idea what the next Monday would bring us and I'm actually worried now if I can find something to say in today's Trading Signals....

WEEKEND SUGGESTION BOX
Cobra could you bla bla (on your subscription board) about the date and details on the CBOE changing the put/call ratio (Sentimentrader/last night disqus)… what it means….what the new calculation is ….what you think about it… link to more cboe or analysis stuff ...etc ...it sounds pretty important (?)
THANKS VERY MUCH

[taggard]

....I have no idea what the next Monday would bring us and I'm actually worried now if I can find something to say in today's Trading Signals....

WEEKEND SUGGESTION BOX
Cobra could you bla bla (on your subscription board) about the date and details on the CBOE changing the put/call ratio (Sentimentrader/last night disqus)… what it means….what the new calculation is ….what you think about it… link to more cboe or analysis stuff ...etc ...it sounds pretty important (?)
THANKS VERY MUCH

Short on time right now so will let cobra explain all the details

But the closing total cboe put call was 1.25. that is a fairly high ratio of puts to calls (so 1.25 puts to each call) and it implies everyone is hedging or short. large numbers of these puts all come due (or burnout if you like) next friday. the clue is everyone is short. or hedged expecting trouble.

it's different this time since we have not had high put call ratios since 11-2011. and it's a moderately extreme reading you can use your stockcharts to look at the past year or so and see what you think. in the context i am watching (10 and 30 day mas of the nyse advance decline line) this means we are now nearing a decent (not amazing) oversold reading in both the 10 and 30 day time frames just as everyone on the planet goes short or at least covers up.

if the usual rules apply it is a couple of days after a large reading that you get some sort of bounce.

cobe put call is best thought of as similar to over bot and over sold--that is it is not exact--but an indication all things being equal. in my case since both the 10 and 30 mas of the nyse ad line are oversold--i am doubly interested.

overall put call stuff is not required for trading--it's an addon indicator. but since i trade options i spend more time with this stuff.

good luck with your trades

[Cobra]

....I have no idea what the next Monday would bring us and I'm actually worried now if I can find something to say in today's Trading Signals....

WEEKEND SUGGESTION BOX
Cobra could you bla bla (on your subscription board) about the date and details on the CBOE changing the put/call ratio (Sentimentrader/last night disqus)… what it means….what the new calculation is ….what you think about it… link to more cboe or analysis stuff ...etc ...it sounds pretty important (?)
THANKS VERY MUCH

I need do some research. It might affect Non-Stop mode, so need change that.

[snakehead]

SPX: its a bunch of overlapping waves. Then maybe price is completing a Triangle wave (B)

I can't say, nor can anyone, anything but it locked between lines. And one can do quite well if they see that forming.

I don't believe this is corrective going down. There are too many longer term things saying 100 SPX+ lower. By Wed we should have a good idea. If Cramer says "JPM is fine", well then we know

<< If Cramer says "JPM is fine", well then we know >> Ha ha ha

I bought a load of FAZ based on the "cockroach theory" (or 'theorem' ) It is legend as to how much derivative risk these firms are exposed to -- this may be the event that shines a light on that.

BTW, how do u like my new avatar: it represents a human sacrifice to the "machines" -- I'm sure Kubrick had that in mind when he filmed it.

[ronrico]

Once again the nite session gets the trade in the direction of the trend and we get to try to catch the falling knife in the day session.
The mkt has been rallying after europe closes mostly lately

[ronrico]

Here's a very believeable target for gld at 135 area
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/