maybe Futia is right
and his version of 3 peaks and domed house predicts huge rally
The real story during election years, especially when a Democrat is in the White House, is that May is a month for correcting, while June is a month for screaming higher. The timing of the turns is more important with this tool than calculating the magnitude of the move. Coming up just ahead is a bottom due May 14, which our subscribers have known about for the past month and so they have been anticipating its arrival. There is also a bottom due at the end of the May, which helps to illustrate the point that sometimes a bottom is what prices go down into, and sometimes it is what prices go up out of.
A big strong June and July is wholly contrary to the old saw about “Sell In May…”. Most of the time that rule does work, at least in part, but in election years a whole different rule goes into effect. If the correlation persists this year as well as it has been doing up until now, we can look forward to a big rally in June before the market finally enters a plateau in July, when the media’s attention is tuned to the campaign promises being slung by the presidential candidates.
So I suppose that the revised motto should really be, “Sell In May And Go Away, Except If It Is An Election Year, And Seasonality Is Running A Week Behind, In Which Case Expect A May 14 Bottom, And A Really Strong Month Of June”.
Tom McClellan (PragCAp) may 6