05/19/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

Institutions are in distribution. I don't see positive divergence so the distribution may last awhile. The stocktiming algo is way oversold, so a rebound could be soon though. Only a failed rebound could make the divergence possible. Go figure what I mean.

[Cobra]

II, i.e. those newsletter writers are near bullish, hmm. AAII, i.e. retailers are near bearish.

[Cobra]

Smart Money is neutral.

[Cobra]

Here's the statistics about AAII Bullish Sentiment readings: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/aaii-bu ... rformance/.


We're current below 25%.

[Harapa]

Another way to look at AAII data, Bull/(Bull+Bear), bottom panel. Readings of < 0.30 coincident with a bottom. Current read 0.34. Top panel is SP500 index.

[Harapa]

SPY_TRIN and medium term Small cap models remain in "Buy mode" despite current beating.
TRIN is behaving a little strange; a reading above 3 indicate a ST bottom which has yet to happen in this round of sell off from 140.
I will be watching the Lending _Environment indicator for a clue if we are nearing a real top when (if) next rebound comes (this rebound may turn out to be like the one before market collapse of last summer.

[Al_Dente]

The Offensive/Defensive Ratio is still in “risk-off” mode.
If we are in a “normal” correction, it should hold and bounce at or near the uptrend line (pink zone).

Same chart over 13 years shows the importance of holding near that pink trendline, as the ratio has already given us a bear signal when it failed to confirm (red dotted lines and arrows) the April SPY high.

Sentiment impacts the XLY. See Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index, which just dropped sharply.
(reports weekly; latest release was for week ending May 13, and helped “cause” the XLY selloff).
http://www.bloomberg.com/consumer-comfort-index/
Explained here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-1 ... h-low.html

“I made a fortune getting out too soon” [J. Pierpont Morgan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mitLcbH ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

Here’s how we look on simple overlay compared with the rest of the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hK5iHwr ... re=related

[tomsky]

The Jupiter Saturn Uranus cycle works like a charm. See this attachment , it's a detail from 2008. Where is the bottom? In 1 or 2 weeks probably we'll find it.

What i'm most interested is to zoom this to a daily level, like here: http://www.educatedanalyst.com/images/s ... -4-lge.jpg (taken from: http://www.educatedanalyst.com/planetar ... ethodology) but don't know how to do it. How to transpose a circular move (a planet on it's orbit) in a oscillator and how to compose a cycle of 2 or more planets (well, at theoretical level i know the trigonometric functions, but how to use planets' coordinates and get a sinusoidal move that's my question).
If anybody has any ideeas and wants to share it, i'll be more than grateful, we can all benefit from it.

[BullBear52x]

Bottom fishers are out in force, so far no big catch.

eyeball this Hiekin Ashi there is no bottom insight

so's MACD hist.

intraday seeing nothing here either, soooooo.....fishing on I guess.

here is my weekly look of support and resistance for the current trading range

[essessme]

curious does anyone else show ES trades crossing the tape today currently 1321 - weird to say the least.....

[sloth]

The Jupiter Saturn Uranus cycle works like a charm. See this attachment , it's a detail from 2008. Where is the bottom? In 1 or 2 weeks probably we'll find it.

djia-Ju-Sa-Ur 2008-2012.png

What i'm most interested is to zoom this to a daily level, like here: http://www.educatedanalyst.com/images/s ... -4-lge.jpg (taken from: http://www.educatedanalyst.com/planetar ... ethodology) but don't know how to do it. How to transpose a circular move (a planet on it's orbit) in a oscillator and how to compose a cycle of 2 or more planets (well, at theoretical level i know the trigonometric functions, but how to use planets' coordinates and get a sinusoidal move that's my question).
If anybody has any ideeas and wants to share it, i'll be more than grateful, we can all benefit from it.

Interesting chart, ever compared it the typical three peaks and a domed house chart pattern? It seems to place us now to point 22 in that pattern:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2012/04/t ... house.html

[xfradnex]

Is HDGE better than SDS going short? I set a period were SDS starts at and stops at the same price level over 11 weeks. HDGE achieved 13% gain.

[snakehead]

I just read the WSJ article about the FACEBOOK ipo launch faceplant.
(I actually bought the physical newspaper today when I was in a convenience store.)


Not ONE mention of HFT. My blood is boiling.

[tomsky]

Interesting chart, ever compared it the typical three peaks and a domed house chart pattern? It seems to place us now to point 22 in that pattern:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2012/04/t ... house.html

Maybe yes, maybe no. We could be at 16. One thing i can be sure is that you can't measure accurately the future market moves based on this chart, the planetary cycle. According to it, we should be way above May 2011 high when in fact we are near breaking the 2011 October high (i think the market will break that in order to overlap as the entire move off 2009 low is corrective). And the coming up move could be a zig zag to form points 17 to 20 in the next 6 months and the peak, 21 to 25, will come in 2013.
But also the scenario in your link could be true, although i don't like the way he counted 10 and 14 and besides this, you don't have an accumulation zone where points 16 to 20 can be placed. If his scenario will play out, 10 should be at the very first low in august 2011 and 14 where he placed 10 and then you can have a range to count 16 to 20 where he pointed 14.
As Cobra always says, wait and act only on confirmation. The thing i'm watching in the coming 2 weeks is a bottom followed by a sharp up move of 4 weeks till end of june.
And still looking to reproduce this cycle as a daily chart rather than weekly.
GLTA!

[uempel]

I'm away on holiday and won't be trading next week - unlucky me, because it's going to be an interesting week.

SPX bounced on weekly MA 75 (1291) Friday. If this level breaks there's support down at 1250ish (channel) and 1220ish (lower band of monthly BB13/1) but these supports are Custers Last Stand. Any close beneath 1287 (daily MA 377) is bearish or a bear trap and a break of 1250/1220 is extremely bearish .

On a lighter note: Black ellipse on 60 min chart suggests a nice move for Tuesday/Wednesday, red ellipse on daily chart points to Wednesday. Will this be a Charge of the Light Brigade - or something more substantial

[Al_Dente]

EXPECTING A BOUNCE SOON
Everything is oversold and a bounce is due…. or …
This updates the long-term VIX charts that we’ve watched as they signaled sell then bounce then sell again.
Bounces are common.
But note two recent instances, the corrections of May 2010 and Aug 2011 (pink boxes), where there was more “wash-out” and less bounce.
Also compare the mini-exhaustion selling volume then to now (pink arrows on volume).
We may have further to go.
And anything can happen in the interim.

“I live through risk. Without risk there is no art. You should always be on the edge of a cliff about to fall down and break your neck.”
[Author Carlos Fuentes, R.I.P.]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP67H4qfe5w

[Al_Dente]

PAGING TraderGirl [edit: and Keizai]
If u have time, please post yr dollar chart(s) and any turn dates u have for this week.


“Anyone can be a millionaire, but to become a billionaire you need an astrologer.”
[Billionaire J. Pierpont Morgan, who had the world’s most famous astrologer on his payroll]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysNSKj-G ... re=related

[Quantimeter]

For those who are interested how Dax performs, I have a collection of indicators which are mostly pointing down. Although some short term indicators could indicate short term rebound and overbought condition, there could be more down ahead. Dax cannot have a bigger rebound before at least some of the indicators stop their decline.

McClellan leading the way down

Risk indicator measuring if riskier stocks perform the market

Usually the market won't turn unless the correlation reverses.

[tomsky]

PAGING TraderGirl [edit: and Keizai]
If u have time, please post yr dollar chart(s) and any turn dates u have for this week.


“Anyone can be a millionaire, but to become a billionaire you need an astrologer.”
[Billionaire J. Pierpont Morgan, who had the world’s most famous astrologer on his payroll]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysNSKj-G ... re=related

Here's my turn dates for coming period, first was friday and the very next one is on 24 may. Don't know if they'll work, last one (11th may) didn't played out, but the ones before did, so a lot of "if" from me. Best turn indicator i know is Cobra
Worth mentioning that turn dates appearing both in the bradley line (red on the chart, same frame with the Dow) and on the Jupiter Saturn Uranus cycle (blue, lower frame in the chart) tend to work. But i just started to watch these a month ago so it's long walk till understanding and perfection. Based on this, friday was a turn date and the next one will be 05.31 or 06.01.