06/04/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

RSP and IWM had already made a lower low.

[Cobra]

100% MM target.

[MrMiyagi]

What's left to cancel?

[Cobra]

also this kind of selling means there'll be at least another leg down.

[TraderJoe]

Market Long's until it hits Cobra's 100% mark..

[TraderJoe]

I think your 100% MM target is 126.50?

[louie]

What's left to cancel?

FaceBook! Cancel FB

[taggard]

http://www.georgesoros.com/interviews-s ... nto_italy/

fairly amusing and right on rap by Soros. if you are not interested in the (fairly concise and simple) stuff on reflexivity you skip down about a third of the way to the para starting " until recently my interpretation of financial markets was either ignored or dismissed" where he starts fading into a very nice section on the euro zone. esp a cute idea on the timing of any crash being roughly 3 months (based on greece and germany cratering if they take longer)

two key points if you are skipping it--

(1) ask your self if your technical trading system assumes a 50-50 chance of tending to order (stats and past patterns) or disorder (stuff getting seriously whacko). TA Traders like to take the position that they are above rational markets--but in fact they usually get killed on any serious change as "that didn't happen last time". So ta only works 80% of the time and often the other 20% can be where the fast stuff happens.

(2) consider what this stuff means about your personal life. What soros did (which now a small number of people take for granted--but which at the time was seriously hot stuff) was see that living systems do not act like physical systems (so a dog does not act like a rock). Now i learned this stuff from a different angle which was information theory and we used the world "learn". so living systems cannot be understood in the same way as physical systems since living systems learn--physical systems do not. if you toss the same rock at 100 dogs you will get varied responses which themselves will change if you do this 10 time so each dog and learn what is going on--or odds are some dog will bite your ass at some point. if you take the same rock and drop it--you will not get this pattern and the rock will act egg-xacty the same every time.

The problem in trading is how to grasp this point--everyone now expects liquidity to be the answer. But the fact is the problems are so messy that it is going to be harder than usual to even come close to using this solution in a meaningful way over time. Everyone if forced would likely admit that if things continue in the direction we are going at some point there is going to be a "dislocation". But at the same time everyone will always say "it's not this time" maybe it's next time.

The problem in our lives is much the same. it is easy to see our lives continuing--yet as time goes on the chances of a larger change are huge. When we look back we can usually find a pattern (such as not using our bodies for 10 years and getting sick--or a belief that starts a war which is totally bogus so that 80% are for the war at the start and 20-30% at the end the other 50-60% usually cannot remember the point they changed their minds--the same with all medical econ etc)

the issue here is how to learn prior to the bad feed back loop--that is lurking out there. the Euro Zone and USA are clearly blowing it so far.

and this really brings up (what i think) is Soros' greatest contribution. Even beyond his theory--is the idea that "economic theory is wrong" and has been so for a very very long time. What we are looking for here is a different way to see all econ-theory--and that is why this whole mess is so long and drawn out. One of the info greats (Bregory Bateson) pushed the idea "the map is not the territory" (an idea that shows up in the fine car chase movie Ronin where esp amusing to info theory guys is the point that never in the whole film does anyone learn what is in the case they are all killing each other over--an fine meta take on life)

So right now econ theory is the map that is not the territory--it is wrong--most of the world is focusing on the map and not looking--and that is why we are here. and it is also why there is likely an event starting Now or fairly soon--that is going to "tend to disorder".

"order" is understanding the old econ theory that forced this situation to come to pass. oddly disorder is "understanding the old theory failed--and a new theory is actually evolving in real time". so order is often a delusion--whereas disorder is actually the truth emerging. when this happens to us it's usually resisted and there in lies most of our problems in life. (and trading)

in terms of phyiscs--econ theory is like the old newton "bridge building stuff" and the new theory is more like "string theory".

good luck to all traders (beware dogs that look like rocks)

[Cobra]

I think your 100% MM target is 126.50?

don't mix my market outlook with the day trade target. the 100% MM target is $127.09. The Market Outlook target is where you should watch closely so that you know where the future is heading. Also it's not 126.50.

[louie]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

[taggard]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

what is mmt?

[louie]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

what is mmt?

Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer MMR as an explaination to how econ theory has changed.

[cguirguis]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

what is mmt?

Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer MMR as an explaination to how econ theory has changed.

LOL. Measure Move Target.

[Cobra]

this rebound may have legs, but it's weak, not good.

[EvilTrader]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

what is mmt?

Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer MMR as an explaination to how econ theory has changed.

LOL. Measure Move Target.

Modern Monetary Theory is a post-keynesian fraud.

http://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-re ... -is-money/

Its motto is "mosler´s law:"

MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large tax cut or spending increase cannot deal with it.

[taggard]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

what is mmt?

Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer MMR as an explaination to how econ theory has changed.

please state in a few sentences exactly what you see as MMT and ideally how it is different than the stuff used to say 1998 or so. then i can respond in a half assed accurate way.

thank you

[louie]

taggard: are you referring to MMT?

what is mmt?

Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer MMR as an explaination to how econ theory has changed.

LOL. Measure Move Target.

Modern Monetary Theory is a post-keynesian fraud.

http://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-re ... -is-money/

Its motto is "mosler´s law:"

MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large tax cut or spending increase cannot deal with it.

I AGREE!!!

[Cobra]

hmm, nice good looking bull bar, but bulls need follow through.

[KeiZai]

Anyone with link to press conf - merkel,barroso ? started 6mins ago, cannot find it nowhere

[Cobra]

multiple resistances. will temporarily maintain there's another leg down but will adjust accordingly. lunch time, will be back.