06/16/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional accumulation and distribution from stocktiming. Almost in accumulation now.

[Cobra]

AAII and II survey.

[Cobra]

Smart money.

[Cobra]

Equity Only, buy to open only put call ratio at the highest since 2009, so it's a bullish chart. (courtesy of Schaeffer)

[cougar]

Good morning Cobra!
Very interesting stuff! Thanks!
Have you got any information on liquidity inflows and outflows?

[Cobra]

Good morning Cobra!
Very interesting stuff! Thanks!
Have you got any information on liquidity inflows and outflows?

also form stocktiming but I don't think this chart reflects anything in the future it only tells what is happening now. It takes one huge up day to change everything.

[cougar]

Good morning Cobra!
Very interesting stuff! Thanks!
Have you got any information on liquidity inflows and outflows?

also form stocktiming but I don't think this chart reflects anything in the future it only tells what is happening now. It takes one huge up day to change everything.

Thanks! It's good to know!

[cougar]

Paging BullBear. Here are some IWM charts which summarize my view. I was long and exited my position, prudently, before reaching resistance. Now I am waiting for some new signal + confirmation.

Both daily charts, using distinct tools, suggest very close resistance levels right under 78.

On the 60 min chart, we had an expected visitor yesterday before close: a bearish Gartley Butterfly.

[ClarkW]

Equity Only, buy to open only put call ratio at the highest since 2009, so it's a bullish chart. (courtesy of Schaeffer)

Very interesting, Cobra! Great job as always on your nightly reports!!

[KeiZai]

Hi Ws,

I´m still missing the bigger fear in the market and so-called big bear trap. So what I´m looking for is last wave down -5- (next week?) and then when emotions say sell I will buy the whole market

From the pattern perspective we are in the same situation as in 2008, 2010 and 2011. In 2008 "they" did not want to stop it so we had more on the downside (I heard it was bush who said I don´t care let it crash ). In 2010 and 11 they used handbrake (liquidity) what I think will be this case as well. So 2008 scenario we can scratch out IMO.

Here is the pattern and difference between them:

and 2010,2011 and now: (yellow dots are waves 5(bear traps)

From the ADX I assume we can be still in the corrective wave 4

IF the big down wave (3) will be stoped with L from the elliott study it could be another corrective X wave like in 2010:

Crowd sentiment poll:

Lots of traders (http://chart.ly/symbols/VIX) see in VIX H&S pattern, but my view is that is not completed atm what also favours my opinion - one more wave down

PS: take these charts just as musings nothing more, that´s the reason why we have this WW thread

[TraderJoe]

Hello to all,
Thinking about the Greece election tomorrow and this came to mind;
1- I believe that most of the people of Greece are very use to and like the way they currently live.
2- I also think that most do not want to give up or change their way of life.
3- It is said in papers that many of them hoard their cash in their homes, not banks, etc and they are very, very upset over the new higher taxes.
4- I think, most of the people in Greece may, and I say it again, may think that they can have their cake and eat it at the same time. (An old American saying that means have it both ways).
5- So with the above in mind, it is possible that they may vote to remove themselves from the Euro thinking it will allow them to keep their current way of life and everything will be just fine.

I am also wondering what is going to happen to Gold & Silver? I am thinking this could be the catalyst to move the metals in a big way, up or down. I see a side to both directions so this totally has me baffled. I am think it could move he metals up substantially???

[ocassional observer]

shades of june 2010 update:

so far so good. we have the 2 up weeks, now we need the higher high and the big reversal. this is where we can determine if this will be a repeat indeed. cobra's view correlates perfectly with this scenario and so does the mixed sentiment readings which indicate a bear trap:
http://cdn.arladvisersllc.netdna-cdn.co ... .14.12.png

however, the greek elections can turn things around especially if syriza wins decisively. any other result will create the expected behaviour imho.

[KeiZai]

Risk ON/OFF chart

Astro chart

Bullish view

Nice site with all kind of data: http://www.crystalbull.com/

[KeiZai]

Some greek elections info:

- Public Issue, one of the leading opinion companies in Greece, carried out a phone opinion survey from May 25-30 across a general population sample of 1210 adults from across Greece. The results estimated 31.5% support for Syriza, 25.5% for New Democracy, 13.5% for Pasok, 7.5% for Dimar. Compared to poll results from the week prior, support for Syriza had risen 1.5% (from 30%), fallen 0.5% (from 26%) for ND and fallen 2% (from 15.5%) for Pasok. The margin of error was +/-2.8 percentage points.

- Kapa Research SA surveyed 1012 people for the Athens-based Ta Nea newpaper, in a poll conducted from May 29 to 31. The results estimated 26.1% support for New Democracy, 23.6% for Syriza and 9.9% for Pasok. Compared the last poll held on May 23-24, support for ND rose 0.3% (from 25.8%), rose 3.5% (from 20.1%) for Syriza, and fell 3.1% for Pasok (from 13%). The overall margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points.

- A Rass poll conducted for Eleftheros Typos showed 26.5% support for New Democracy, 24.2% for Syriza and 9.9% for Pasok.

SCENARIO #1: New Democracy wins elections and has parliamentary majority (> 151 votes) – 10%
SCENARIO #2: New Democracy wins elections but does not have majority – 45%
SCENARIO #3: Syriza wins elections but does not have majority – 40%
SCENARIO #4: Syriza wins elections and has parliamentary majority – 5%

[TraderGirl]

Hi Ws,

I´m still missing the bigger fear in the market and so-called big bear trap. So what I´m looking for is last wave down -5- (next week?) and then when emotions say sell I will buy the whole market

From the pattern perspective we are in the same situation as in 2008, 2010 and 2011. In 2008 "they" did not want to stop it so we had more on the downside (I heard it was bush who said I don´t care let it crash ). In 2010 and 11 they used handbrake (liquidity) what I think will be this case as well. So 2008 scenario we can scratch out IMO.

Here is the pattern and difference between them:

2010-2008.png

and 2010,2011 and now: (yellow dots are waves 5(bear traps)

X9.png

From the ADX I assume we can be still in the corrective wave 4

X166-2.png

IF the big down wave (3) will be stoped with L from the elliott study it could be another corrective X wave like in 2010:

X66.png

Crowd sentiment poll:

Crowd.png

Lots of traders (http://chart.ly/symbols/VIX) see in VIX H&S pattern, but my view is that is not completed atm what also favours my opinion - one more wave down

VIX-LRS.png

PS: take these charts just as musings nothing more, that´s the reason why we have this WW thread

I like your Crowd sentiment poll, shows we may have not had capitulation yet...??

[TraderGirl]

SPX climactic volume indicator...

[Cobra]

SPX climactic volume indicator...

Hmm, make sense, as it seems people are expecting huge gap up Monday...

[ocassional observer]

i looked back at june 2010 non stop model, and there was a buy signal there as well which ended with a losing trade eventually, so this too is very similar to then.

[KeiZai]

I like your Crowd sentiment poll, shows we may have not had capitulation yet...??

Yes I read it that way

[grachu]

Cobra . GOOD WEEKEND . happy your day. you are a DAD . when you come back to the computer. can you tell me if you ever used the CLIMATIC indicator? is it reliable ? I mean .... have never heard from it ...