07/05/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

big bear bar, but NORMALLY, should be another leg up, don't know when yet.

[OverUnder]

Yes, and there has been better correlation lately between the ADP numbers and the Friday numbers.

Gold should continue to sell off in anticipation of better than expected jobs numbers Friday thus decreasing the chances of new US QE, at least until the 1:30 floor trading close today.

Is there a jobs preview out?

http://www.forexcrunch.com/adp-non-farm ... -a-change/

[Al_Dente]

AAPL is 17.9% of QQQ as of 6/5/12, one month stale
please post if u have current weighting
http://etfdb.com/etf/QQQ/holdings/

[TradingJackal]

IHS?

[MrMiyagi]

That was a short-lived dump.

[uempel]

Al, if you look closely VIX stayed down low for many months last year, kind of slept there.... Difficult to get the timing right. And something else: I don't trust VIX, to me it's got the smell of Libor. And I guess it's much, much easier to manipulate than Libor...

75aapl.png

Al, when did you screenshot? Dax looked really bad an hour ago, now it's coming back...

UEMPEL
it’s current/fresh but it shows EWG real-time on the daily
I can only get $DAX eod end of day on stockcharts.com

Off topic:
Bill Luby on the bottom zone in the $VIX: http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/

[ClarkW]

4 Wave is done IMO now the 5th

SP-5w.png

If you wouldn't mind elaborating a little on that KeiZai. Wave 5 = down from here is my assumption but don't know ANYTHING about EW.

Thanks!

nope nope wave 5 up then down, but keep in mind I could be wrong of course

elliotWave5.gif

EDIT: I expect very steady up move from here and early next week big down but don´t know if we will see lower low(rather, tag of red line probably) or higher low (from 3june)

Thanks KeiZai! Obvious my assumption was a little biased. As long as we get a "big down" beginning of next week I like your call! Just kidding, always love your charts, thanks for contributing!

[TradingJackal]

We are getting insensitive to bad news and jump at no news (taken as good news) at these levels. However, there is only so high we can go with the pittance being thrown about. A triangle looks like a good bet for the next few months till Ben starts the presses again around election.

[jdow]

Wow, Danish bank now charge you for certificates of deposit . "... Danish bank to introduce a negative certificates of deposit interest rate," Danske Bank's senior strategist Kasper Kirkegaard said....

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/0 ... IO20120705

[fulkdaddy]

Cobra, is Bespoke telling us anything about tomorrow's Jobs Report? Philly Fed last Thursday was very poor and CNBC said it has correlated very well with the Jobs Report and it predicts about 40k. But the ADP report today was very impressive and GS has raised their estimate to I think 125k from 90k.

Are rising expectations setting people up for disapointment?

[CognitiveDissonance]

big bear bar, but NORMALLY, should be another leg up, don't know when yet.

Is the 2nd leg of the 2 legged down negated at this point?

[Cobra]

not sure if there's another small leg down, tinted area the target and key to gauge the strength of the bear.

[Cobra]

big bear bar, but NORMALLY, should be another leg up, don't know when yet.

Is the 2nd leg of the 2 legged down negated at this point?

don't know. seems bulls have one leg missing while bears have one leg missing too. how to resolve this, don't know.

[Cobra]

Cobra, is Bespoke telling us anything about tomorrow's Jobs Report? Philly Fed last Thursday was very poor and CNBC said it has correlated very well with the Jobs Report and it predicts about 40k. But the ADP report today was very impressive and GS has raised their estimate to I think 125k from 90k.

Are rising expectations setting people up for disapointment?

nothing about tomorrow's NFP out yet.

[CognitiveDissonance]

big bear bar, but NORMALLY, should be another leg up, don't know when yet.

Is the 2nd leg of the 2 legged down negated at this point?

don't know. seems bulls have one leg missing while bears have one leg missing too. how to resolve this, don't know.

It's another bull/bear battle royale

[snakehead]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8ROhH3_vs

[Al_Dente]

PAGING UEMPEL re VIX
And if u do a long term lookback, VIX stayed below 18 ish for FOUR+ YEARS in the 2003-2008 bull-spy run.
Note this is long term 15 year chart, weekly.

My takeaway from Luby (and he’s the VIX “expert”) was to watch the daily VIX closing for reversal candle/s, (which is what we do anyway) and a pop in VIX for the SHORT TERM.
ps thx for BPNYA

[Cobra]

funny, 100% MM target reached. key time, more down from here then bears are gaining momentum.

[MrMiyagi]

[KeiZai]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8ROhH3_vs

Watching your bonds closely watch for breakout in the comin´days

squeezy