Cobra wrote:CarlosDK wrote:Cobra ,, what is your wildest guess from here ??
FOMC on Aug 1st, the market might speculate for QE3, therefore might run up until Aug 1st. Just watch how gold is doing now.
Personally, I still find it's hard to believe that Helicopter Ben dare to announce QE3. It'd be really considered as buying votes as we all know and even Ben admit, the best effect of QE3 is to lift the stock market so let everyone feels good and forget the reality.
Yeah. Not only buying votes, the whole commodity complex (not just gold) could go for a run. With grain prices up huge, oil, gasoline and natural gas looking like they may have bottomed and precious metals reacting positively, QE could really crank 'em. The commodities might actually react better than equities.
I think he likes to surprise the market from time to time too. So, we might get something next week, but it will have an aspect that people don't expect.
An alternative to doing anything significant now is to wait until Jackson Hole (I assume it happens again this year) to signal what the game plan is. The Market got trained to pay attention to that two years ago.