08/02/2012 Live Update

[ibopm]

Does it make sense to close my (december) calls right away right now? As a newbie, I'm a little scared.

pay attention to your emotions here--the problem is not holding or not holding--the problem is how you feel. if you have a clear plan when you get into the position exit is fairly clear. win lose or draw--try to figure out how to learn--not feel something too strongly. in other words--the problem is not the trade--but the fact that you feel this or that about it--this can be offset by planning so that action is clear when the time comes.

next take a deep breath--everyone has forgotten the jobs report tomorrow until about 60 min from now--and the idea that in effect nothing has changed other than the germans have even more pressure on them as they are being thrown down upon.

finally look at current price action--all we have done on qqq is bounce off the 20 ema daily.

deep breathing--focus and concentrate how how to avoid this situation next time--by carefully considering whatever flaws there are in this trade this time--as opposed to asking others for advice (we don't know most of the time either)

Thanks for all the advice. This one particularly struck me, that my enemy is not the market, rather it's my emotions. Thanks for that, I'll try to have a solid plan next time and stick to it.

[EvilTrader]

Closed remaining short position @ open.

Looking forward to jobs day tomorrow, usually a reversal play.

Done for the day, just studying price action. No positioning.

[OverUnder]

This is hysterical, they pump and dumped the VIX.

[Cobra]

strong rebound. no further comments for now, wait and see.

[taggard]

deep breathing--focus and concentrate how how to avoid this situation next time--by carefully considering whatever flaws there are in this trade this time--as opposed to asking others for advice (we don't know most of the time either)[/quote]

Thanks for all the advice. This one particularly struck me, that my enemy is not the market, rather it's my emotions. Thanks for that, I'll try to have a solid plan next time and stick to it.[/quote]

let me refine this a bit--really--words matter.

first you have no enemy this is just a way to discuss something. why cannot the emotions and the market be your friends. as silly or unimportant as this sounds consider it. Second even if you feel your emotions "got out of hand" they are part of you--saying they are your enemy means you are in conflict with yourself--not a good situation in the middle of a trade. Third feeling things is very good later on when you have skills--don't make the usual mistakes and head towards a 100% machine type system. So you want to moderate your reactions to feelings. not dominate them--ignore them--or assume they will always be useless. also it's best not to "try" to have a plan--you either have one or not.

trading is like fighting--you have a plan going in and then when the action starts you have to modify somewhat. at the start it's better to be more absolute and then add flexibltiy later.

finally despite all the bad press--consider paper trading until you have something that works for you. the illusion is that "paper trading does not work" but even seals "paper trade" prior to going into the field. if you know from 100-1000 tests that an idea works 65-85% of the time everything becomes easy. if you must trade cash--trade so small it makes no difference until you are wired in. try to focus on finding what works for you and stress testing it to death--rather than on "getting ahead".

bottom line? it's not about the money ever good luck

[joe-gamma]

LONG term,looking for a tech reason to be contrarian (over bearish retailers and advisors).....
Here is a chart to see if rec highs i dow are saying markets are now too defensive?
GL, Joe

[KENA]

Small dn tick for liquidity..Still in the triangle and can break out in either direction..So we just wait and see and looks like only days away.(chart by stocktiming)

liq%20ss.png (20.98 KiB) Viewed 3548 times

[Al_Dente]

PAGING joe-mama
nydec hit 1900 BUT PULLED BACK TO 1600
is my screen broken ? tap tap tap….nope dec 1600
I can’t call it a “bear trend day” until decliners stay above >2000
TRIN 2.1 bear
VIX honey badger

[KENA]

Progress for strong stocks for june was a sideways move for the month..It's about time the mkt broke out of this trend.(chart by stocktiming)

[Cobra]

very strong rebound which makes me wonder: are we going to close deep in green?

[stucap]

Right about now is a good time for a big red stick or at least a volume spike. Honey badger loving some Spoos right now. Constant bid pushing, pushing. pushing.

[taggard]

very strong rebound which makes me wonder: are we going to close deep in green?

tid bit? on qqq we have more or less stuck to the 15 min 20 ema for 3 days--so fading any move away from it was something. this may or may not continue into jobs--but if it does seems like maybe that pattern cracks on fri to tuesday--as the apparent reasons for this stickiness should fade.

[KENA]

very strong rebound which makes me wonder: are we going to close deep in green?

Maybe a typical thur,open red close green..Lets see

[Mr. BachNut]

Market Neutral.
My signals are long, but they have been subject to problematic whipsawing since the June low.
It is a challenge technically because the big indexes (S&P, Dow) have been zig zagging up in a wide trend channel.
The channel is wide enough to cause my signals, which are designed to pick up trend changes, to flip at the extremes.
Furthermore, the overbought/oversold signals I use have not been in play much at the extremes.

I am biased to looking for the emergence of a new downtrend. (Trend is up at the moment for longer term traders.)
The pushes up have been overlapping, which makes the move from the June low corrective.
There have been several pushes now. (The Elliot Wavers must be having a marvelous time trying to slap a count on this.)
The indexes appear to be diverging with the Russell looking like it may be done on the upside.

The question is how to get a clean signal/confirmation of a turn when it comes.
As I look at the money flows alongside the indexes, I get the sense that roughly the same big pile of money has been sloshing in and out of the market trading the swings here (as opposed to real investors plowing newcapital into the market).
So, I am gravitating toward watching the Australian $. (CAD and AUD/Yen also relevant)
It has synced real well with the S&P since March, and presents a somewhat cleaner chart.

May not work, but a breakdown of AUD along with the equity indexes, could be a technical belt & suspenders to gauge a trend change.

[Petsamo]

Anybody riding WLT up ?

[ClarkW]

Interesting to see GDX +1.30%, GLD close to even at -.08% and SLV -.38%

[Al_Dente]

Right about now is a good time for a big red stick or at least a volume spike. Honey badger loving some Spoos right now. Constant bid pushing, pushing. pushing.

stu what r spoos? spy/spy proxies?? thx

[KENA]

The BKX has been sideways for a time and is trying to break fairly heavy Res, at 45.84..If it does we may go up a few days but in the long run the Banks may run into problems in the near future.(chart by stocktiming)

[stucap]

Right about now is a good time for a big red stick or at least a volume spike. Honey badger loving some Spoos right now. Constant bid pushing, pushing. pushing.

stu what r spoos? spy/spy proxies?? thx

S&P e-mini futures aka "ES" aka "SPOOS"

[Al_Dente]

Defensives……..“flight to safety”
At the moment, the only flight to safety I see here are little bit into long bonds (but not enough for a fresh high)