08/18/2012 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

PAGING Xian
Thanks for great Etta cobra snake, I’d never heard that b4……here’s Etta always on Sundays
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns


Year-to- date percentage performance of the indices....A few notes:
1) Banks are up 20% ytd, interesting, as I’ve been thinking of the banks as underperforming. Not so.
2) Wilshire 5000 (our broadest-based index) is up 12%, comparing favorably with SPX, interesting,
as I’ve been yammering on about the lack of broad participation.
3) Trannies are weakest, and have been all year.

[BullBear52x]

The IF factors

[Al_Dente]

The bad break on bonds doesn’t have to stop here.
The ADX “trend-finder” (second panel) over the last two weeks, confirmed the TLT bear trend.
It’s trying to oversold bounce, then could easily continue down to test the 200ma (black dotted sma) then the 61% fib……. or not……
I’d like to see some EW counts and/or other projections if anyone has them.

Janis Joplin live “Summertime” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIrnKcoFX0Q

[Al_Dente]

The IF factors

No joke I love those crop circles
Baron von NoStressSmartyPants….RE: yr comments last week
Soooooo you swing long with the trend, then you short hedge it via intraday scalps, yes?
1) Do you swing long and then intraday scalp long also…..same side?
It seems like u r focused more intraday on scalping the short side, for hedge and lunch money, right? (top signals, ding ding, etc)
2) How “elastic” is your “swing.” In other words: would u have been swinging long since 4 June, or swing in out in out etc.
3) When the velocity on the short side is always, okay almost always, greater than the velocity on the long side, does that screw up the balance?
Thanks bub u ‘da baron

[BullBear52x]

The bad break on bonds doesn’t have to stop here.
The ADX “trend-finder” (second panel) over the last two weeks, confirmed the TLT bear trend.
It’s trying to oversold bounce, then could easily continue down to test the 200ma (black dotted sma) then the 61% fib……. or not……
I’d like to see some EW counts and/or other projections if anyone has them.

The attachment 819wkndbonds.png is no longer available

Janis Joplin live “Summertime” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIrnKcoFX0Q

Simply a chart pattern support and resistance, just another IF factors

[BullBear52x]

The IF factors

No joke I love those crop circles
Baron von NoStressSmartyPants….RE: yr comments last week
Soooooo you swing long with the trend, then you short hedge it via intraday scalps, yes?
1) Do you swing long and then intraday scalp long also…..same side?
It seems like u r focused more intraday on scalping the short side, for hedge and lunch money, right? (top signals, ding ding, etc)
2) How “elastic” is your “swing.” In other words: would u have been swinging long since 4 June, or swing in out in out etc.
3) When the velocity on the short side is always, okay almost always, greater than the velocity on the long side, does that screw up the balance?
Thanks bub u ‘da baron

Call me so I can explain to you what's in my mind
Here is the idea, once I initiated the position I will counter trend with the hope that the counter trend is wrong. crazy eh? you know what I use and when to sell the rips and buy the dips. (some day I trade more than I should, lets not get into those)
From the latest entry 8/3 at 138.5 so far the unrealized gain is 3.68. ***intraday rule is take as much profit as possible, obey the stops at all time***. Here is basic ideal of the move, my Swing longs last entry was a buy at 138.5 on 8/3. current stop is 140.92

now see where the counter trend should be

see my note here for what I am shooting for.

[Al_Dente]

The IF factors

Baron von NoStressSmartyPants….Soooooo you swing long with the trend, then you short hedge it via intraday scalps...

...Here is the idea, once I initiated the position I will counter trend with the hope that the counter trend is wrong. crazy eh? you know what I use and when to sell the rips and buy the dips....From the latest entry 8/3 at 138.5 so far the unrealized gain is 3.68. ***intraday rule is take as much profit as possible, obey the stops at all time***. Here is basic ideal of the move, my Swing longs last entry was a buy at 138.5 on 8/3. current stop is 140.92...now see where the counter trend should be...see my note here for what I am shooting for....

Cool, thanks very much SmartyP
I am with you up until Friday’s change to main swing short trend (maybe) …I’m not there yet….
Girlfriend: ……… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIcmpEXC ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

Dollar $USD has had seven trading days of dojis (on heikin ashi)
Dojis always (?) mean indecision, even on heinikens, but it looks like the indecision may break out on the upside….. higher lows…..
(note I use the inverted dollar intraday UDN, this is the straight $USD dollar, daily, no inversion).

My long term dollar target is still the 89 zone, with bounces expected between here and there.

"All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds." [Pangloss in “Candide” by Voltaire]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPqdlR_X ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

“Successful investors are the ones that are always making plans for all sorts of contingencies, so it stands to reason that they should even prepare themselves for the possibility of stocks actually declining one of these days…”
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/

[knock]

EUR and AUD gap up.

[TradingJackal]

Given that patterns repeat (or rhyme) is a fundamental tenet of TA, I went back to see if there was a similar past pattern.

Great post Chevy. Saw that a week ago when I was researching something else. That plus the institutional accumulation distribution chart that cobra posted with a similar pattern from early 2012 says we can melt up for a while flabbergasting everyone and once the shorts totally capitulate, it will turn down.

From the chart posted by cobra ( stock timing chart) the distribution inceased but the price went up. Rally and sell to the suckers.

[Al_Dente]

“Hong Kong Fear Index 41% Above VIX on Slowdown: China Overnight”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-1 ... night.html

[Junoon123]

Nice
Thanks