08/25/2012 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

PAGING FB
This is about the potential success of “retargeted” ads, NOT retarted ads
http://techcrunch.com/2012/08/25/facebo ... E9%7E3%7E0

[TradingJackal]

Here is a chart for a proposed Wolfe wave.

[Al_Dente]

More on the incinerator, or “garbage ETF”

“… The VXX now holds virtually all September futures, and they are currently running at $19.30 while the spot VIX is $15.96. This is before a daily roll into the October contracts at $21.60. That is a 12% monthly hit divided by 20 days, for a daily .6% headwind… these things are just flat out rip-offs…”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/826641- ... -expensive

[Al_Dente]

Here are three nice gold BULL charts:
http://advisorperspectives.com/commenta ... 082512.php

Oldies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5b_Yh1f3 ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

World markets
“Only three countries other than the United States — Mexico, Singapore and Sweden — have regained all the ground they lost when world stock markets plunged during the financial crisis of 2007-9. The chart shows the performance of 30 markets as measured by MSCI indexes, and of the MSCI All Country World Index, which includes all markets MSCI classifies as developed or emerging.”
[source: NYT 8/24]
[edit: hmmmm direct link might be clearer: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012 ... vered.html

[Al_Dente]

The new CBOE “Range Options” start trading on Tuesday, ticker SRO
“…SROs pay an exercise settlement amount if the settlement value of the underlying index at expiration … falls within a specified "range length."
The range length for SROs will be set at 70 S&P 500 Index points…”

“…Range options give investors with an outlook on …[SPX] prices a new way to [lose money] gain exposure to the market -- with less need for price precision…”

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases ... d%3D112556

[TradingJackal]

Here is a chart that uses numbers from a couple of weeks ago. More ominous
The targets are 133 from the first chart (61.8 retrace) and 127, a full retrace.

[BullBear52x]

Another cool thing “borrowed” from Cobra: If VIX can go down just a smidge, and stay below the top rim of the Cobra channel, SPY should be able to continue up. When VIX moves above the channel, SPY goes a bit bearish…

And the black line on spy is the bb52x line of 5MA, which as an intraday guide to “buy the dips when above that ma….. and sell the rips when below that ma” has been quite a decent line to “tell” what side to be on intraday. At the moment it is on “sell the rip” until the candles flip back up above it…

And the last four times spy sat on the bolinger centerline (neon green dotted line), she pulled back just a bit more before continuing up… we’ll see..

ps a little volume would help too…. either way

826wkndchannel.png

if it's sunday, it's etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

Nice Dr. AL, why I like this because you use my favorite number. Cobra use 10,10 and 10,20 you use 10,5 envelope am I right? I love those set up but check out 10,3 envelope or BB 10,.5

[BullBear52x]

Here is a chart that uses numbers from a couple of weeks ago. More ominous
The targets are 133 from the first chart (61.8 retrace) and 127, a full retrace.

Nice, can you pull the same drawing on IWM pls

[TradingJackal]

Also posted this chart on my blog on Saturday. This is for tomorrow. The premise is that we are in a correction/wave 4 right now and it will take a few days to sort out before the final move up. So, I used WXY for the wave down. XYZ is very similar to a leading diagonal and one can be easily confused till it sorts itself out. If we take out the high from a few days ago, then it is a WXY and if we take out the low of the Y, then it becomes a Leading Diagonal(EDIT: not necessarily) . Anyway, we will find out soon
EDITS: Mixed up WXY with XYZ

[TradingJackal]

Here is a chart that uses numbers from a couple of weeks ago. More ominous
The targets are 133 from the first chart (61.8 retrace) and 127, a full retrace.

Nice, can you pull the same drawing on IWM pls

Interesting on two counts -
1. 5 did not extend to 127 of 3. It only extended as much. I am still learning and literature on the web only speaks of 127 and 162. I guess 100 also works
2. The pattern is quite different from SPX. No edge here on the direction as the Wolfe wave seems to have already finished. Wish I knew then!

[mozart]

This could be brutal ???, or very sweet ????

[TradingJackal]

Here is an example of a failure of the Wolfe wave (assuming that the wave is correctly charted). There are two ratios in play here - 127 and 162 and it looks like a good setup but it fails. So, I guess Wolfe waves work when the ratio is same between the two waves - either 127 or 162 but not both. I have not read anywhere that the ratios can be mixed or not. This is a good example of correct but mixed ratios and it did not pan out.

[MrMiyagi]

PAGING AAPL FREAKS ONLY

So is AAPL set to rocket to the next galaxy along with the market on Monday or is it already baked in?

[BullBear52x]

Here is an example of a failure of the Wolfe wave (assuming that the wave is correctly charted). There are two ratios in play here - 127 and 162 and it looks like a good setup but it fails. So, I guess Wolfe waves work when the ratio is same between the two waves - either 127 or 162 but not both. I have not read anywhere that the ratios can be mixed or not. This is a good example of correct but mixed ratios and it did not pan out.

Thanks TradingJackal.

[BullBear52x]

PAGING AAPL FREAKS ONLY

So is AAPL set to rocket to the next galaxy along with the market on Monday or is it already baked in?

AAPL is a sell short term in my book, but since we have HH on big picture, this is counter trend at best.

[BullBear52x]

Paging Dr. AL, here is the VIX controller, next week is my short week, Monday only trading day for me, this chart will tell if the buy will come it next week. Good luck to all.

[Al_Dente]

Another cool thing “borrowed” from Cobra: ...

Nice Dr. AL, why I like this because you use my favorite number. Cobra use 10,10 and 10,20 you use 10,5 envelope am I right? I love those set up but check out 10,3 envelope or BB 10,.5

Hold your dogs, Pavlov.
The blue channel lines were 10,5.
Cobra may use 10,10 and 10,20 elsewhere, but this one is and was 10,5 directly-stolen-from-cobra.
I tinkered adding 10,3 (red) and then below that panel is a bolinger at 10,.5
They are all so very similar, I don’t see the difference yet? Please re-state your point. thanks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIPj3hLN ... re=related

[BullBear52x]

Another cool thing “borrowed” from Cobra: ...

Nice Dr. AL, why I like this because you use my favorite number. Cobra use 10,10 and 10,20 you use 10,5 envelope am I right? I love those set up but check out 10,3 envelope or BB 10,.5

Hold your dogs, Pavlov.
The blue channel lines were 10,5.
Cobra may use 10,10 and 10,20 elsewhere, but this one is and was 10,5 directly-stolen-from-cobra.
I tinkered adding 10,3 (red) and then below that panel is a bolinger at 10,.5
They are all so very similar, I don’t see the difference yet? Please re-state your point. thanks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIPj3hLN ... re=related

826wkndcobra.png

10,3 envelope and BB 10,.5 are the same. but that's what I use for trend controller, I use it for confirmation on my move.

PS. you got awesome chart always, no church today? GL gtg.

[KeiZai]

Sorry Mickey, nothing against you

Mickey-Mouse-Birthday-Present.jpg (23.39 KiB) Viewed 3556 times

Waiting for channel break to go short, cycle looks completed as daily-weekly RSI agree with it...(weekly momentum fades as well)
bottom line: good R/R 4 me