05/18/2011 Intraday Watering

[Mr. T]

BullBear,

You think we'll get back to 1350ish for a complete backtest?

I'm just looking for the level they want to pin OpEx to.

[KENA]

I am still holding my shorts.Should have sold yesterday and buy back today. Thats hindsite.If we all new this we would all be rich and no more fun.Yes I am thinking of adding to my shorts also.I would not be supprised if we went back to 1319 low of yesterday.

[nikman]

Folks, the damage is done technically, this is just a back test, I am now loading up on short etfs.

SMH seems to be very close to a break-out to the upside on a very long-term basis (10-12 years trendline).

[KENA]

I am still holding my shorts.Should have sold yesterday and buy back today. Thats hindsite.If we all new this we would all be rich and no more fun.Yes I am thinking of adding to my shorts also.I would not be supprised if we went back to 1319 low of yesterday.

PS>>This was supposed to go to BB52X.

[DCS]

Hmmm.

Intraday - is this consolidation or terminal resistance?

[BullBear52x]

BullBear,

You think we'll get back to 1350ish for a complete backtest?

I'm just looking for the level they want to pin OpEx to.

max pain is now drop to 133 spy, yesterday was set at 134, I think now at the current the old gap resistance and 5dma will be tough ceiling for bulls to break.

[ActiveTrader]

I still think ES is still in sell the rip mode until it breaks 1341 and holds 1335 on a dip.

[Olly Varadi]

I am still holding my shorts.Should have sold yesterday and buy back today. Thats hindsite.If we all new this we would all be rich and no more fun.Yes I am thinking of adding to my shorts also.I would not be supprised if we went back to 1319 low of yesterday.

I agree. I'm not really into top calling but what are we all waiting for? A 5th of a 5th wave up? After the 2yr run we've just had? Sure there may still be some surprises to the upside and I fully agree that things are a bit stretched in terms of lack of upside recently.

I also think that some of us, me included, are reading the market and thus, using indicators as if still in an uptrend and discounting that we may be at the start of a downtrend.

Time will tell but I remain short DJ futures at 12,900, 12,735, 12,633 and will be adding if we get to 12,530 and loading the boat up if we get to 12,600. If we do have a barn-busting rally taking us to new highs (and we might), so be it, I'm covered with BE stops and would just thank the Lord for a quite unbelievable opportunity to load up higher.

[BullBear52x]

OEX is tough play.

[shumushu]

Folks, the damage is done technically, this is just a back test, I am now loading up on short etfs.

I don't see how the damage is done technically? The SPY daily looks bullish, we made higher higher a few weeks ago and we are in the making of a higher low from the previous higher low on 4-18-11. This choppy business for the past week in my opinion is consolidation which is bullish; bull flag. We need a serious break down; impulsive down to do technical damage and confirmation.

[DaWay]

good catch!
should yell earlier!!!
my test model says 1343.25 using similar approach

Said sorry in advance, didn't I?
Actually couldn't scramble up to post. But yes pattern turned into IH&S and broke out, under going neckline backtest now...that has target close to your 1343...

[nikman]

Folks, the damage is done technically, this is just a back test, I am now loading up on short etfs.

I don't see how the damage is done technically? The SPY daily looks bullish, we made higher higher a few weeks ago and we are in the making of a higher low from the previous higher low on 4-18-11. This choppy business for the past week in my opinion is consolidation which is bullish; bull flag. We need a serious break down; impulsive down to do technical damage and confirmation.

For this same reason, I think that the rally has another month or 6 weeks to go.

[Cobra]

still the same resistances and way too high ChiOsc.

[Cobra]

should be another push up ahead.

[BullBear52x]

Folks, the damage is done technically, this is just a back test, I am now loading up on short etfs.

I don't see how the damage is done technically? The SPY daily looks bullish, we made higher higher a few weeks ago and we are in the making of a higher low from the previous higher low on 4-18-11. This choppy business for the past week in my opinion is consolidation which is bullish; bull flag. We need a serious break down; impulsive down to do technical damage and confirmation.

Trading over 5dma will get me back to the bull camp not at the moment, our time frame may be difference but here is the damage I was talking about.

[99er]

RUT
Hit gap resistance...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/rut_8182.html

[99er]

SPX
Well...that should do it.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/spx_18.html

[Mr. BachNut]

FOMC minutes will be released at 2PM. It is a likely catalyst for next move. Market seems poised to go either way...perhaps both...

[StrikePrice]

A lot of back and forth here, kinda like the market.

If we can take out Monday's HIGH by tomorrow's CLOSE, I think the BULL camp should breath easier. We have seen this market just slowly grind higher or gap over resistance since the Long-Term Uptrend began March 2009. Nothing has completely ended that scenario yet.

As I pointed out earlier, we have the potential of a busted Descending Triangle on the SPY. If we do get a breakout above current R2 then it will be very hard to argue anything but an Ending Diagonal for Wave 5 to the 1400 area on $SPX. So far from today, that's what's most in play. If you're shorting every overhead TL you draw with a tight stop and keep getting stopped out, well then you're just adding fuel to the Bulls fire.

[cletus]

SPX
Well...that should do it.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/spx_18.html

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