08/31/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

up as expected.

[67Chevy]

The currency pairs have been losing correlation with SPX
Eyeball analysis only: it looks like bear spy when this happens in unison (?)
Smarter comments welcomed please

831currency.png

Not for INTRADAY, ONLY for Swing Trades

Currency markets have done an amazing job of predicting the US equity market moves in the last 5 years (and possibly since 2000). Buying and selling based on hourly momentum in AUD/JPY would have fetched you >400% (vs 1% B&H) since March 2007 (in SPY). Combining this with other pairs on my momentum list would have positioned you on the right side of almost all moves since march 2007 (67% win rate, Pain factor = -6.7% draw down of 5 consecutive trades). I am surprised by the results but data is data.

Here are detailed STATs for AUD/JPY pair since may 2007
Long/ Short/ L+S
Total Trades 167/ 167/ 334
Winning Trades 116/ 98/ 214
Losing Trades 71/ 71/ 142
Win percent 69%/ 59%/ 64%
RTN Cumulative 499%/ 432%
B&H 0.83%
2012 YTD 14% vs 12% b&H
Last trade: Short on 8/22, 0.6% gain

So a strategy built around currency markets can be very profitable.

Interesting stats, thanks for posting those results Harapa

[Al_Dente]

The currency pairs have been losing correlation with SPX...Smarter comments welcomed please

Not for INTRADAY, ONLY for Swing Trades
Currency markets have done an amazing job of predicting the US equity market moves in the last 5 years (and possibly since 2000). Buying and selling based on hourly momentum in AUD/JPY would have fetched you >400% (vs 1% B&H) since March 2007 (in SPY). Combining this with other pairs on my momentum list would have positioned you on the right side of almost all moves since march 2007 (67% win rate, Pain factor = -6.7% draw down of 5 consecutive trades). I am surprised by the results but data is data.....Last trade: Short on 8/22, 0.6% gain
So a strategy built around currency markets can be very profitable.

Cobra has been quietly telling us for at least a year probably more, that aud/jpy is his favorite carry trade indicator.
All other explanations really benefit boardies like me who don’t have a good grip on currency pairs.
Your stuff especially appreciated very much… always THANKS

[jdow]

The currency pairs have been losing correlation with SPX
Eyeball analysis only: it looks like bear spy when this happens in unison (?)
Smarter comments welcomed please

831currency.png

Not for INTRADAY, ONLY for Swing Trades

Currency markets have done an amazing job of predicting the US equity market moves in the last 5 years (and possibly since 2000). Buying and selling based on hourly momentum in AUD/JPY would have fetched you >400% (vs 1% B&H) since March 2007 (in SPY). Combining this with other pairs on my momentum list would have positioned you on the right side of almost all moves since march 2007 (67% win rate, Pain factor = -6.7% draw down of 5 consecutive trades). I am surprised by the results but data is data.

Here are detailed STATs for AUD/JPY pair since may 2007
Long/ Short/ L+S
Total Trades 167/ 167/ 334
Winning Trades 116/ 98/ 214
Losing Trades 71/ 71/ 142
Win percent 69%/ 59%/ 64%
RTN Cumulative 499%/ 432%
B&H 0.83%
2012 YTD 14% vs 12% b&H
Last trade: Short on 8/22, 0.6% gain

So a strategy built around currency markets can be very profitable.

hey harapa, loving the IWM action? What indicators do you use? Or simply, what long/short signals do you get? THANKS

[Unique]

AAPL 2 legs up...

[Cobra]

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

[fehro]

fwiw, if we stall here... purple triangle?

[PGM]

Very likely indeed, it was already at $141.70 in that chart

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

[joe-gamma]

Harapa gets the B O D award (boardie-of-the-day )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQ4e46wiENM

thanks for great stats!

[q2model]

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

142.70?

[Cobra]

Very likely indeed, it was already at $141.70 in that chart

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

yes, it takes time to update chart and typing so sometimes it's too late.

[Cobra]

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

142.70?

it's already reached, I cannot update the text and chart as fast as the price.

[KENA]

The Shanghai broke support and is heading dn..The index is now dn 20% +/- and puts the index in bear mkt.The mkt is oversold right now so may bounce up,but the trend is dn.Everything is not good in China so don't let the cheer leaders hype you up.As always watch.

chart by stocktiming

[PGM]

I know, just kidding. Great work Cobra.

Very likely indeed, it was already at $141.70 in that chart

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

yes, it takes time to update chart and typing so sometimes it's too late.

[joe-gamma]

seasonal today bullish (see cobra holidays)
Aug election year seasonals very bullish (ask me for chart if you want it)
and
Vol looks ready to close back under BB...

Who says the KING's lofty target won't be hit today?

[Cobra]

I don't like this bear bar, but for now still think this bull has legs.

[Unique]

Backtest these setups, they don't end pretty kiddos

[Harapa]

hey harapa, loving the IWM action? What indicators do you use? Or simply, what long/short signals do you get? THANKS

oh yeh.
I use momentum as my primary input. The signals are derived from RSI of multiple MA, and CCI. This may give you the idea. The example is based on movement in VIX so logic is reversed (as equity price moves opposite to the VIX).

[Cobra]

I know, just kidding. Great work Cobra.

Very likely indeed, it was already at $141.70 in that chart

this bull has legs. I don't believe 100% target, but 61.8% at $141.70 is likely.

yes, it takes time to update chart and typing so sometimes it's too late.

[TraderGirl]

Think we could maybe see a bounce in FB soon, looks like wave 3 or C COULD be almost complete, the question is it 3 or C?