09/08/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.


The only important chart I think worth attention is below. Not extreme enough so I don't mean bear, I just think it's time to pay attention.

[Cobra]

Institutional accumulation increasing while distribution remains historically low. liquidity rising. No conclusion made from those charts. just charts. courtesy from stocktiming.

[Cobra]

AAII and II

[Cobra]

Smart money still historically high short (could mean they still long a lot, so when they begin to cover, it's time they're dumping).

[Al_Dente]

Hello all weekenders:

Leisurely weekend reading loaded w great graphs/charts summarizing everything bull on top and bear on the bottom.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/848421- ... ated&ifp=0

[Al_Dente]

Top panel: nasdaq up volume has hit 1500 intraday about 25 times in the last year, 22 times it indicated further bull (green vertical lines),
3 times it failed (blue vertical lines)

[Al_Dente]

This view of NYMO has been great at catching bottoms
Let’s see how good it is catching the coming top

[Cobra]

This view of NYMO has been great at catching bottoms
Let’s see how good it is catching the coming top

98wkndnymo.png

I'm watching this chart too. Judging top is not as effective as judging bottom but still it worked. Next week would be interesting.

[Al_Dente]

This view of NYMO ...

I'm watching this chart too. Judging top is not as effective as judging bottom but still it worked. Next week would be interesting.

Thanks Cobie for all your hard work
When u have a moment, could u please link me to a page “How-to add a box chart in Disqus” as I can’t figure it out, and I would prefer to inline a chart on your Disqus subscription page instead of just linking to my chart.

[Cobra]

This view of NYMO ...

I'm watching this chart too. Judging top is not as effective as judging bottom but still it worked. Next week would be interesting.

Thanks Cobie for all your hard work
When u have a moment, could u please link me to a page “How-to add a box chart in Disqus” as I can’t figure it out, and I would prefer to inline a chart on your Disqus subscription page instead of just linking to my chart.

[Al_Dente]

Where is everybody?

New Lows (noted by shaca yesterday) which are the red spikes on the top panel, just entered the danger zone.
In a raging bull market it is not so healthy to see 59 new 52-week lows.
Red boxes show where the new lows indicator has described mini pullbacks, and as new lows increase, they describe decent declines.
Today it suggests caution.

Further, note the green histogram spikes behind the top panel which is the “Ratio of New Highs to Total” ($NYHGH/$NYTOT).
I had to go back to November 2010 to find a comparably high ratio. At that time, it indicated a pullback. See pink lines and boxes.

[Al_Dente]

It’s hard to chart long-term XIV as it is barely two years old. Who can trust such a baby?
If we treat it like an ordinary weekly-chart analysis, it tells us a few key things:

1) volume is absolutely in the “very low/no supply” zone (see yellow)
2) it is overextended according to the second panel (too far above its 200dma = brown line is PPO 1/40/1 weekly)
3) piercing the weekly upper bolinger band indicates it may be a bit overextended
4) it is overextended according to the “standard deviation” tool on the bottom panel, suggesting a “mean reversion” may be near.
5) it can get even more overextended if it wants to, just like everything else…..

[On a related note: $VIX at 14.38, not on this chart, could bounce down one point lower to test its 13.38 bottom, or SPY 145-146ish]

[joe-gamma]

[quote="Al_Dente"]It’s hard to chart long-term XIV as it is barely two years old. Who can trust such a baby?
If we treat it like an ordinary weekly-chart analysis, it tells us a few key things:

1) volume is absolutely in the “very low/no supply” zone (see yellow)
2) it is overextended according to the second panel (too far above its 200dma = brown line is PPO 1/40/1 weekly)
3) piercing the weekly upper bolinger band indicates it may be a bit overextended
4) it is overextended according to the “standard deviation” tool on the bottom panel, suggesting a “mean reversion” may be near.
5) it can get even more overextended if it wants to, just like everything else…..

[On a related note: $VIX at 14.38, not on this chart, could bounce down one point lower to test its 13.38 bottom, or SPY 145-146ish]

Thanks for chart and ideas AL, happy [quiet] weekend!
this ratio and the correlation seems to point toward strong upside bias in equity indices when corr has dropped and reversed...but short lifespan may "not be statistically significant"

[TradingJackal]

This view of NYMO has been great at catching bottoms
Let’s see how good it is catching the coming top

98wkndnymo.png

Al, fantastic chart! Your stuff never ceases to amaze me. I know you share generously already but is it possible for you to share a 'print' link to some of your charts? That way we can bookmark those charts. This definitely is one of those. Thanks again for sharing.

[joe-gamma]

another view of xiv-spy...., with qqq performance, seems NBA this fall (nuthin-butt-aapl), relative to fall 2010

[jack black]

Hi Guys and Gals,
I've been lurking here lately, but registered to ask a question that stumped me completely and I'm hoping some smart person can answer that for me.

This is regarding OTC transaction volume that sentimentrader tracks for a long time:



According to that, it should be a bull market starting. And I guess it is in gold/miners and perhaps even in EM. But how does it square with the record low VIX values here in US. Anyone? Thanks!

[Al_Dente]

This view of NYMO has been great at catching bottoms
Let’s see how good it is catching the coming top

98wkndnymo.png

Al, fantastic chart! Your stuff never ceases to amaze me. I know you share generously already but is it possible for you to share a 'print' link to some of your charts? That way we can bookmark those charts. This definitely is one of those. Thanks again for sharing.

thanks jackal
let me know yes or no if this works for u
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO ... listNum=15

[joe-gamma]

This view of NYMO has been great at catching bottoms
Let’s see how good it is catching the coming top

98wkndnymo.png

Al, fantastic chart! Your stuff never ceases to amaze me. I know you share generously already but is it possible for you to share a 'print' link to some of your charts? That way we can bookmark those charts. This definitely is one of those. Thanks again for sharing.

thanks jackal
let me know yes or no if this works for u
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO ... listNum=15

CHEF DR AL DOES IT AGAIN!, link works well for nonsubscribers....where is your page?
or do you prefer to keep your wisdom confined to your p&L and this board?
thanks for all the great stuff!

[ClarkW]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.


The only important chart I think worth attention is below. Not extreme enough so I don't mean bear, I just think it's time to pay attention.

Outstanding job as always Cobra! You do an amazing job of teaching! Can't remember when I found you, year or so ago, but don't think there's been a day that I'm not on your site. Very grateful!

Dr. Al, Great job as well! My "Al Dente" folder in stockcharts.com is piling up! Full of great stuff! Now if you and Cobra could only help me control my emotion and weird desire to try and pick bottoms/tops

[joe-gamma]

Hi Guys and Gals,
I've been lurking here lately, but registered to ask a question that stumped me completely and I'm hoping some smart person can answer that for me.

This is regarding OTC transaction volume that sentimentrader tracks for a long time:



According to that, it should be a bull market starting. And I guess it is in gold/miners and perhaps even in EM. But how does it square with the record low VIX values here in US. Anyone? Thanks!

Welcome! and Thanks for registering and posting L/T charts.

No simple answers that embrace our current economic climate, but I am a bit of a noobie, so please do not take these points as coming from "smartest guy in the room"

-histrocally low interest rates Ben's zirp thru 2013
-even lower interest rate expectations, NIRP coming like in Swiss?
-retail traders continue to leave overall market
-401k accounts continue to flock into bond funds and out of equities

Does not mean I don't think a big levitating rally is not going to happen into November, but its an UNREAL world out there in many respects...Thanks for jumping in to the board