09/22/2012 Weekend Update

[Mr. BachNut]

JJG (Grains) going to stay in this range or breakdown? Will monitor...

Yeah. Corn and Beans did not end well last week. Kinda need to bounce soon...a little more down and stops should start triggering.

[KeiZai]

SP still looks like bull flag, but there is some mixed signals as DAX (and others EU indexes) probably completed short-term 5 waves structure, well we will see on monday
my 2cents:
I have a target 1494 cash before bigger correction take place until then I am scared to short, but break of the purple channel would be a good start for bears

The attachment SPcash.png is no longer available

do u have one of these for russell, boss
thx

yessir

Russell is the weakest link, but still above important support

Targets if we will get something bearish

[Mr. BachNut]

Don't know it's significance, maybe someone else can shed some light on if there's a correlation historically or not BUT there's a disconnect recently between LUMBER and Homebuilders (XHB)

Looking at the COT report, the commercial hedgers were pretty short at the high. They are closer to neutral now. So, the lumber correction may be done soon.

[Harapa]

Repost the mysterious chart from McCellan Financial

Here is the most current chart with projected major top marked on 11/29/2012.

Source:http://time-price-research-astrofin.blo ... tions.html

[amd2k]

Smart Money still huge short (meaning they're long).

Cobra, I really got confused by this "smart money" chart.

For many weeks, I see you posting the charting, thinking that the "smart money" is accumulating short positions.

Until today I see your comments in the parenthesis : (meaning they're long).

So what on earth are the smart money doing? long or short ? Can you explain a little bit in detail ?

[ClarkW]

Don't know it's significance, maybe someone else can shed some light on if there's a correlation historically or not BUT there's a disconnect recently between LUMBER and Homebuilders (XHB)

Looking at the COT report, the commercial hedgers were pretty short at the high. They are closer to neutral now. So, the lumber correction may be done soon.

Thanks Mr. BachNut

[ClarkW]

From SentimenTrader: "In response to a member request, we looked at what's happened when the DJIA reaches an entire quarter (63 trading days) without a 1% decline, while recently trading at a 52-week high. Since 1900, there were 16 such cases. Over the next six months, the Dow was positive all 16 times, with a median return of +6.0%. The maximum decline during those periods averaged -3.5% versus a maximum gain that averaged +8.0%."

[ocassional observer]

a comprehensive summary of sentiment and charts showing extreme complacency:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-2 ... arket-risk