09/29/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with institutional accumulation distribution chart from stocktiming. Distribution high but still less than accumulation.

[Cobra]

liquidity chart from stocktiming, again, the liquidity is not as much as the past rally, this is really strange, either we're still at the early stage of the rally or this rally is much weaker than the previous one.

[Cobra]

smart money is huge short. it's a new record. Something is going on.

[Cobra]

AAII and II don't show commonly believed this market would never drop anymore. Strange, isn't now as much free money as possible is available? Why people still have doubt?

[SigmaEcho]

smart money is huge short. it's a new record. Something is going on.

Hi Cobra,
What kind of short is represented by this chart?
I read yesterday from @Sentimentrader that now is record long equity futures at 50 billion, compared to a year ago record short same amount.

Do you think some kind of IT/LT top is placed. I see exact 100% measured move:
Oct 02 low-Oct 07 high = 808 points = Mar 09 low-Sep 12 high. Exactly!
(1576-768 = 1474-666)
Tnx.

[dr659]

[quote="Cobra"]smart money is huge short. it's a new record. Something is going on.[/
In the past when you have said " Smart money is hugh short" I think you added "Which means thier long" Am I correct? And could you explain what you mean by that? Thank You.

[shaca]

tran is ready to drop

[Cobra]

smart money is huge short. it's a new record. Something is going on.

In the past when you have said " Smart money is hugh short" I think you added "Which means thier long" Am I correct? And could you explain what you mean by that? Thank You.

Too extreme is bad. If they're very confident on their longs, why bother short this huge? Hedge is not without expense, agree?

[noob]

TLT looks more like a bull flag formed.

[Cobra]

smart money is huge short. it's a new record. Something is going on.

Hi Cobra,
What kind of short is represented by this chart?
I read yesterday from @Sentimentrader that now is record long equity futures at 50 billion, compared to a year ago record short same amount.

Do you think some kind of IT/LT top is placed. I see exact 100% measured move:
Oct 02 low-Oct 07 high = 808 points = Mar 09 low-Sep 12 high. Exactly!
(1576-768 = 1474-666)
Tnx.

total futures short contracts add together. I don't know what senntimentrader refers to, the chart I show here says all.

My feeling is intermediate-top might be in, but I need see chart confirm. Feeling doesn't count.

[ClarkW]

Possible Bearish Harmonic Pattern in $HUI on daily.

[ClarkW]

Long-term view of carry trade. Does it look bullish or bearish to you?

[ClarkW]

Trucking Index not feeling the same love as the market

[Cobra]

please, if not much trouble, take a little time to vote for me, thanks. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[ClarkW]

$SPX:$VIX Weekly close to giving a sell signal (cross below 90). Forget who I borrowed/stole this from, whomever you are thanks. It's certainly had some misses so take it as 1 data point please.

[Al_Dente]

Latest short interest report
Note: NUGT short interest increased by 244%
TZA shorts increased by 54%
etc
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

Oddball note: it appears they are using boring TIPS, probably as an inflation play (?)...Shorts in TIP decreased by 41%

[Al_Dente]

Down volume declined (red bars)
Bears need to pick this up……. otherwise the “bulls” may regain control ….

[KeiZai]

Hi Ws

Here is where we might are in the big picture, this system is used by HFT machines (inter alia) it´s hard to explain it in a few sentences so here is VERY simplified version:

We need seven swings to set a bigger top/bottom, channels divide the cycles (HFT bias - that´s why u see big sell-off after breaking RSI or strong support on RSI channel), each cycle end with breaking the channel (there are bigger or smaller cycles), first swing is program change to buy the dips, seventh distribution or vice versa, there are rules how to mark peaks based on divergence etc....OK I will not bore you with the specific details

Key point is that I think we are in the sixth swing (similar to april 2010) with 7th still to come probably later this year what will be big top distributive process with potential last fall back to 1000s after this cycle is completed (mid 2013?)

P.S: Take it with a grain of salt, this have nothing to do with our short-term trading just as a big picture 4 fun

USD/CAD
H&Ss everywhere so here is one potential inverse

Thanks for yesterdays posts guys today I feel much better

[Harapa]

Are we done with the bulls?
VIXIES say, NO.

[Harapa]

Are we done with the bulls?
Watch for TL break down. Trend line breaks occurred at all major market turns since 1984. Middle panel is SPY:VIX ratio.

Here is how these looked before and after the stock market crash of '87 (based in SPX:VXO ratio)

BTW, these trend lines follow all standard rules of support/resistance, etc. Solid lines, minimum of three contact points, dashed lines <3 contact points.