05/24/2011 Intraday Watering

[99er]

SPX
"Mind the gap."
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/spx_24.html
Below.

[soku]

Broke out of the ellipse, not to the upside:

SPX4.png

hoho is cobra bearish?
for some reason i don't feel today will go down.

[KENA]

FYI...Stock timing.com says institutions were in distribution.Mkt has problems..They have issued a sell.
The Dorsey Wright Point & figuer charts Are showing more negitive signes for the NYSEBP and now the 30 Week chart has added "0's" and is now below 60%. This does not bode well for the BULLS.All this info is showing a deteriorating Mkt that may last for awhile.I will post more info. as it comes available.My thoughts are getting more bearish. Wait and see.

[wenso]

Count me in as well.
Thanks for all your great work and learned a great deal from you.

[KENA]

The NYSE is the only index holding up the mkt.Let us see how strong it is.

[Cobra]

a little trend line support here.

[Cobra]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

[Olly Varadi]

Tough one to call this - many possibilities but here's what I consider the strongest:

Got the Vix spike I was looking for yesterday, unfortunately, that means that the short-term bottom was either yesterday or will be today. Looking for a close of between 12,433-12,468 today on DJ. Wednesday would appear to be a move higher of at least 1% but probably nearer 1.5% (so 12,568-12,629). I see a high this week of greater than 12,636 and marginally favour a green close so I expect either a doji or a hammer on the weekly. It isn't common to have three weeks on the bounce of nominal upside on the weekly candle and we've had two weeks already (in last 10 years). It did happen the once though, 10/10/08, remember THAT week? That said, I'd be looking for more volatility in the weeks prior for something like that.

I think the next big move down will happen in market open hours also, whenever that may be.

Summary: Up into Wednesday but finishing week flat to slightly higher. Based on current data, two weeks up after that. The w/c 20th June keeps cropping up on my raw data AND chart studies as some sort of turning point. Very short term is still calling for 12,100 area so that's confusing me a little - might go down hard today/tomorrow but recover it all to end green.

Gameplan: Move positions to flat on any decent downside today (based on VIX really needs to be today) or tomorrow.

If red close this week, that's 4 weeks down (last in June 10). 5 weeks down or more occurred in 04 and twice in 02. Even during the great sell-off of 08, we didn't have a sequence greater than 4 weeks down. Not saying that predicts the future, but it guides.

NB. Posted elsewhere earlier today but all my own studies

[Cobra]

there're certain chances that it would go like this, so be prepared.

[99er]

DX
Hi, Ben.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dx_24.html
Going for a stick save, eh?

[soku]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

have u considered to request login to view posts? i just don't feel good with 20 people posting 150 stay anonymous and peeking.

[bbc]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

have u considered to request login to view posts? i just don't feel good with 20 people posting 150 stay anonymous and peeking.

it's a small loop ya, I posted sometimes, but seldom did ppl care

[BullBear52x]

Volatilities indexes, Dow leads, SPX and NDX are right behind. there is change in volatilities, see long date MACD.

[BullBear52x]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

have u considered to request login to view posts? i just don't feel good with 20 people posting 150 stay anonymous and peeking.

it's a small loop ya, I posted sometimes, but seldom did ppl care

BBC, I read every post, more input here the better we are.

[bbc]

Small gap up within yesterday's range so chances are good that the gap will be filled. Here's a little statistics from Sentimentrader, seems very very bullish:

In the history of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), there were 17 times that it gapped down at least -0.5% the morning following option expiration, and closed at least -1% lower.

From Monday's close through Friday's close, SPY rallied 16 of those 17 times, averaging a return of +2.4%. The maximum loss during the week averaged -0.9% while the maximum gain averaged +2.9%.

That said, the global ES, however still looks like a Bear Flag so purely from the chart pattern, I'll assume the pullback isn't over yet.

link to that statistics? or it's member only?

[nimodo]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

Cobra-can we all pitch in to pay for it?

[Cobra]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

have u considered to request login to view posts? i just don't feel good with 20 people posting 150 stay anonymous and peeking.

Remember I have a Chinese forum? So I did similar things several times on that forum, didn't help at all, only brought down the visits which is essential to AdSense, i.e. the revenue. I don't care about the revenue, but once my wife and daughter are back from China, I have to report to my wife that I do earn something by running the web, so you can say the revenue would become more important after August.

[Cobra]

Small gap up within yesterday's range so chances are good that the gap will be filled. Here's a little statistics from Sentimentrader, seems very very bullish:

In the history of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), there were 17 times that it gapped down at least -0.5% the morning following option expiration, and closed at least -1% lower.

From Monday's close through Friday's close, SPY rallied 16 of those 17 times, averaging a return of +2.4%. The maximum loss during the week averaged -0.9% while the maximum gain averaged +2.9%.

That said, the global ES, however still looks like a Bear Flag so purely from the chart pattern, I'll assume the pullback isn't over yet.

link to that statistics? or it's member only?

You have to pay for Sentimentrader.

[Cobra]

OK, thank you guys, I'll do research first to see if indeed this additional user group idea works, then I'll buy the software. The software is better than phpBB, at least it supports HTML and post ytubo.

Cobra-can we all pitch in to pay for it?

Thanks. Guess not this time, there'd be some day that I need some extra money, I'd then ask, but definitely not this time. thanks again.

[uempel]

I drew a second ellipse, but SPX is about to break that one too...