05/24/2011 Intraday Watering

[jpearl]

BullBear52, you might be right about tomorrow but I am just talking about the next intraday move here.

[Cobra]

still no clue what the market is doing. chiosc is low again and the chart still looks like a bear flag breakdown so i'll assume more on the downside, just cannot explain chiosc will do here.

[99er]

Silver
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/silver_24.html

[jpearl]

Cobra you could be right. I don't think it will really turn up until after 12:43. But again if we form higher low here, or successful test, and 12:43 starts to move, then next points will be on upside.

[cougar]

I agree with "uempel": TA is not a science! Statements derived from it are not falsifiable and neither can they be “demonstrated” to be correct! Being aware of that gives you more freedom to be inventive and to experiment combinations of approaches which are not dictated by some miracle-software. I like those ellipses as an expression of this freedom of thought! Good luck!

[99er]

ES
Flag pole long enough to break down through lower channel line.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/05/es_2150.html

[BullBear52x]

TYP, nice basing, will run into a resistance soon, but longer term bigger picture this is bullish accumulation phase per se. see FAZ breaking out

[uempel]

Anaconda, wow, you want to know everything...

These are models, they work on all time frames, but not always.

Every model in finance can work once, twice, for a week or even for a year. And then suddenly it doesn't work anymore. And later on, a few months later, it works perfectly again...

If you do finance at the MIT (I was never at the MIT) one of the first things they teach you is that these kind of models don't work. This does not mean that they never work, they work sometimes.

Now you know why Cobra's search for a mechanical model is kind of difficult... And why my Gann and other ideas are no safe analysis for anyone to follow. TA is no science, it's a kind of art...

If you want to know more go to chart school at stockcharts, or read Pring and Murphy and all the other books.

I appreciate your response. And, clearly I did not ask my question/s well. I merely wished to know if there was something special about the ellipse parameters and if you had gained any historical perspective from using it. For the record, I'm a fan of TA and have been for a number of years. (I use in conjunction with sentiment indicators and, if trading a specific stock derivative, fundamentals, as well.) - A.

Anaconda, as far as I know it's just a phenomenon. I presume there is a scientific rationale, but I'm not aware of it (most indicators have a logical background).
For practical use it's an addition to channels - and of course it works on all time frames. An ellipse on a weekly or monthly chart offers strong support/resistance. Here a sample which shows the importance of where SPX is right now:

[StrikePrice]

support. no sure what the market is doing.

remember my rusty crystal ball? we are few more pennies to tell if the market is willing to stay higher or lower. so far the bigger bear flag is breaking and finish it's back test imo

I agree.

All the upward moves of yesterday and today appear to be backtest of breakdowns.

1315 on SPX needs to hold this week for Bulls, but clearly selling the Rips has paid in May and nothing has ended that logic yet.

[Anaconda]

Anaconda, as far as I know it's just a phenomenon. I presume there is a scientific rationale, but I'm not aware of it (most indicators have a logical background).
For practical use it's an addition to channels - and of course it works on all time frames. An ellipse on a weekly or monthly chart offers strong support/resistance. Here a sample which shows the importance of where SPX is right now:

SPX6.png

[/quote]


Uempl: Thanks again for taking the time to respond. I continue to appreciate and value your posts.
A.

[jpearl]

I think recovery is on. We dipped below 1313.50 briefly but did not close below on 5 or even 2 min chart. Jumping a few minutes ahead of 12:43, if it continues higher after 12:43 then I think move up to 1320 poss.

[KENA]

Keep in mind today is the day where 13/34 ma is crossed in all indexes (Daily), if no price reation to this, tomorrow will be a bigger down day.

Thanks I forgot about that.

[uempel]

A strong blast to the upside would put this hourly chart into "buy mode", but at the moment it's still on "sell":

[StrikePrice]

After a red morning session. Turnaround Tuesday relies on a strong afternoon session.

Resistance at the downtrend TL from Feb High got pierced but still holds and until we get above that line and hold it I continue to maintain "Sell the Rips" is safer than buying the dips.

So far not much strength in moves higher as RSI is still weak.

Market Leader AAPL also backtesting breakdowns and unable to move higher which traders are clearly watching.

[KENA]

IF we can break thru the heavy res. in the 1313 area to 1310/1312 then it will be easier to go dn to new lo. Let see.

[gabor]

Anaconda, as far as I know it's just a phenomenon. I presume there is a scientific rationale, but I'm not aware of it (most indicators have a logical background).
For practical use it's an addition to channels - and of course it works on all time frames. An ellipse on a weekly or monthly chart offers strong support/resistance. Here a sample which shows the importance of where SPX is right now:

SPX6.png

The problem with channels and the ellipse is that many ellipses can be drawn. Some of them support the bullish while others support the bearish view. You can never be sure. Trading is an art rather than science, I agree. A warning fact is that even the most succesfull trader (father of market speculation) ever lived in the history failed in the end of his life. See Jesse Livermoore.

[BullBear52x]

If ones were to look at the over sold/bought conditions in daily once your favorite indicators/oscillators got imbeded it could really mess you up, price action level and moving average seems to be best aid in these area. What I am trying to say here is pricing level and moving average will get you out of trouble. but when all else fails......drink!

[KENA]

I didn't say anything yesterday about our trip to the big city.Everything was great but dinner was the highlight. The Chinese Rest.as usual was extremely good.Had pork.beef,chicken.crab and everything inbetween.Of course I over did it.I may have even beaten out Cobra.

[agnosia]

still no clue what the market is doing. chiosc is low again and the chart still looks like a bear flag breakdown so i'll assume more on the downside, just cannot explain chiosc will do here.

ok i am back from my nap.... cobra what is the measured move down from the bear flag? by my calculations it is 1322-((1340-1310)*.5)= 1307

is that how u calculate it as well?

[cletus]

Come next week I guarantee you everyone who is short or in cash will have wished they took the opportunity to get long this week on this selling.