Cobra's Market View

ALdaytrade wrote: This last p-bar would fill the gap from yesterday.

It would fit in there just fine

Welcome to China.

BOUNCE TOMORROW, but maybe more down ahead:
TRIN closing above 3 [3.23] is pretty rare and “always” means next day bounce, but not always the final bottom
Last times this occurred:
28 Jan 2015 = bounce next day, followed by 2 more down days
10 Dec 2014 = bounce next day, followed by 3 more down days
3 Feb 2014 = bounce next day, that was pretty nearly the bottom

The bias is obviously oversold-down but SPY can trade the limits of the box and if unbroken, the bias would still remain down
NOTE THAT THE LOW TODAY WAS ACTUALLY A HIGHER LOW... all the bulls saw that…

Weekly Heiken-Ashi to reduce the gap noise: for a good dip we need: 1..Ichi lead span a to cross below lead span b..(circles) and 2.. Ichi conversion to cross below base..(squares).Down to the cloud (S3) would be a good start, but todays action didn't phase the 4 day conversion/base cross. Maybe earnings will do it. Still think things will roll over though with the global economy at near stall speed combined with the psycho-circus of geopolitics. To continue to ramp up here is lipsticking the pig.

Al_Dente wrote:BOUNCE TOMORROW, but maybe more down ahead:
TRIN closing above 3 [3.23] is pretty rare and “always” means next day bounce, but not always the final bottom
Last times this occurred:
28 Jan 2015 = bounce next day, followed by 2 more down days
10 Dec 2014 = bounce next day, followed by 3 more down days
3 Feb 2014 = bounce next day, that was pretty nearly the bottom

The bias is obviously oversold-down but SPY can trade the limits of the box and if unbroken, the bias would still remain down
NOTE THAT THE LOW TODAY WAS ACTUALLY A HIGHER LOW... all the bulls saw that…

The attachment 78thirty.png.png is no longer available

Bounce tomorrow because oversold based on TRIN or other evidence like high $CPCP/$CPCE I can under stand that, but HL? what evidence that tells the trend ended here? always buy 2x bottom or sell 2x top I can see that too but HL here? my take on HL/LH, I will only look for LH with negative histogram and HL with positive histogram, today short term intraday is not the case IMHO.

ES Chart Update:

Not much to say pretty much repeating what's been said before, price going according to plan from Sunday night -just a little bit larger hourly range than expected. (thought Tuesday was gonna consolidate 2078 vs 2055 inside day first, doesn't matter)

It is what it is department: Price continues to hold below the 2085 level very well and it was rejected at 2078. Continue to treat every bounce below 2085 a deadcat bounce and selling the rips on hourly have been profitable.

Daily/weekly chart rise: The longer bears manage to reject bulls from taking over 2085Now, we wait patiently for the ignition hourly bar breakdown to trigger the immediate target 2022~ and swing target 2000. Monthly target would be 1980-1970 but still too early to talk about that.

However, if it is a triple bottom hourly instead, then 2063 -> 2078 -> 2095 gap fill is the other side of the bear trade

Doesn't matter which side wins, I let the market price take me into the trade since both scenarios orders have been entered and waiting for a fill.

An important thing to note is that two to three easy money days in a row are rare in a (easy money means fast hourly trend days/both hourly price extremes tested on same day)

daily/weekly rangebound market (2134 vs 2034 range, until price proves otherwise)

We've been in 2134 vs 2032.5 range for 4 months+

P.S, many traders make the mistake of forcing a trade in this type of market environment, in the long run you will lose with that mentality. If you're uncomfortable and have no solid plan, don't play it. Trust me I've learned it the hard way, and still learning laugh

DON'T CARE ABOUT SENTENCES? SEE CHARTS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS:

BullBear52x wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:BOUNCE TOMORROW, but maybe more down ahead:
TRIN closing above 3 [3.23] is pretty rare and “always” means next day bounce, but not always the final bottom
Last times this occurred:
28 Jan 2015 = bounce next day, followed by 2 more down days
10 Dec 2014 = bounce next day, followed by 3 more down days
3 Feb 2014 = bounce next day, that was pretty nearly the bottom

The bias is obviously oversold-down but SPY can trade the limits of the box and if unbroken, the bias would still remain down
NOTE THAT THE LOW TODAY WAS ACTUALLY A HIGHER LOW... all the bulls saw that…

78thirty.png.png

Bounce tomorrow because oversold based on TRIN or other evidence like high $CPCP/$CPCE I can under stand that, but HL? what evidence that tells the trend ended here? always buy 2x bottom or sell 2x top I can see that too but HL here? my take on HL/LH, I will only look for LH with negative histogram and HL with positive histogram, today short term intraday is not the case IMHO.

ES, SPY, SPX hourly are all NOT Extreme Oversold RSI Signal yet. Price is weak and RSI+MACD trying to form positive divergence.
No high probability bounce based on Extreme indicator right now. We already got the deadcat bounce with Extreme Oversold Signal that I was looking for on Sunday and Monday
Waiting for hourly price confirmation of which side wins now. Don't care which side

Unique wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

.

ES, SPY, SPX hourly are all NOT Extreme Oversold RSI Signal yet. Price is weak and RSI+MACD trying to form positive divergence.
No high probability bounce based on Extreme indicator right now. We already got the deadcat bounce with Extreme Oversold Signal that I was looking for on Sunday and Monday
Waiting for hourly price confirmation of which side wins now. Don't care which side

ATM /ES is on a buy.

/ES 2055 at mid night will not suprise me/

BullBear52x wrote:

Unique wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

.

ES, SPY, SPX hourly are all NOT Extreme Oversold RSI Signal yet. Price is weak and RSI+MACD trying to form positive divergence.
No high probability bounce based on Extreme indicator right now. We already got the deadcat bounce with Extreme Oversold Signal that I was looking for on Sunday and Monday
Waiting for hourly price confirmation of which side wins now. Don't care which side

ATM /ES is on a buy.

Agree, for a scalp, but not hourly swing.

Hourly swing confirmations are 2063 bull vs 2034 bear. Still waiting

P.S, love ur blog

Unique wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Unique wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

.

ES, SPY, SPX hourly are all NOT Extreme Oversold RSI Signal yet. Price is weak and RSI+MACD trying to form positive divergence.
No high probability bounce based on Extreme indicator right now. We already got the deadcat bounce with Extreme Oversold Signal that I was looking for on Sunday and Monday
Waiting for hourly price confirmation of which side wins now. Don't care which side

ATM /ES is on a buy.

Agree, for a scalp, but not hourly swing.

Hourly swing confirmations are 2063 bull vs 2034 bear. Still waiting

P.S, love ur blog

Thx, we are at resistance right now on hourly, 2061ish will be max resistance tonight on hourly.